The combine is done now , and I was on staycation during it so I got to watch it all live this time. So that means its full blown liars season now. Which means you can't trust most what is being said by decision makers in the NFL , and their corporate media lackeys' who will push their propaganda for all of us to digest. I have been eating tape for breakfast , lunch and dinner over the last 3 weeks. So I got a LOT done. So far it looks like a higher quality of players than 2023 as a whole , but a few of the players that I had already watched & liked did go back to school so its not as great as it could have been. Thankfully it is a smaller list of players coming out prematurely these days , because the transfer portal and NIL money have thankfully cut down on the number of people who entered the draft too early. Basically between the extra Covid year and the transfer portal there are a LOT of older prospects in this draft. That means we get a better evaluation , but you also have to weigh the tape of a 5th or even 6th year senior versus 3rd year players and compensate accordingly. Also , most of the talent that should end up in the top 5 , and even probably the top 10 is on the offensive side of the ball. I would be surprised if more than one defender comes off the board in the top 10 , and I wouldn't be surprised if the top 10 is all offense. I have watched all of these players actually play many times , but that is not the same as breaking down the film on them, and as of now I have currently broken down the film on one game for 278 players. Although I am also now up to 194 players that I have evaluated for at least 3 games , but there is still so much more tape to watch. I usually end up with at least 3 games scouted on somewhere between 450 to 500 players before draft week so I will be having another staycation in April. Then chime in with the fact we only have a vague idea what teams will need at that time because of injuries, free agency, retirements , trades , the cap, and who knows what else could happen ? Plus the transfer portal & NIL money has drastically changed the face of college football. These days unless you are guaranteed to be a top 100 pick you might want to take the NIL money , stay in school , and try to improve your draft stock. A lot of players disappoint, go back to school, get injuries, get in trouble , and others come out of the woodwork. Basically we are all still a ways off from potentially decoding this draft right now , but the picture is a lot clear today. This is NOT a rankings list of my top players, but instead just my guess at how the draft will go at this time. In addition to it looking like a better draft overall than 2023 there are some positions that have stuck out so far. Right now WR and the O-Line are the best positions in the draft. It wouldn't shock me if half of the entire first round is made up of WR's and O-Lineman. As a bonus , Quarterback , and CB look potentially deep too. Also while there isn't a off the ball LB I would take in the 1rst round there are a lot of them I would draft between the 2nd & 5th rounds. Plus unlike last years predominantly undersized WR class there is a lot of bigger wideouts available in the 2024 draft. I still expect a QB to go #1 , although it could be through a trade , because you never know if the Bears might try to get a big haul of picks , and role with Justin Fields for another year or two. Personally I expect Fields to be traded , and the Bears to take a new QB on a rookie contract. I am putting a QB at #1 either way , and I believe it likely that QB's are the top 3 picks with as many as 6 potentially being selected in the first round. So a lot of trades will probably happen, and since it's draft season again it's time to start throwing trades in the mocks. I have also added the first selection for the 2 teams who don't have a first round pick this year. Without further ado here it is. Agreeing or disagreeing is welcome, but please do it intelligently & respectfully or I just won't post your comment. So here it is. Enjoy.
# Is for a player for with reported character or maturity concerns.
** Is for a player with reported injury concerns.
1.BEARS - (car) - CALEB WILLIAMS - QB - USC
2.WASHINGTON - JAYDEN DANIELS - QB - LSU
3.PATRIOTS - DRAKE MAYE - QB - N. CAROLINA
4.ARIZONA - MARVIN HARRISON JR. - WR - OHIO ST.
5.CHARGERS - ROME ODUNZE - WR - WASHINGTON
6.GIANTS - MALIK NABERS - WR - LSU
7.TENNESSEE - JOE ALT - OT - NOTRE DAME
***TRADE*** The GREEN BAY PACKERS TRADE THEIR 1rst (#25) the 2nd (#41) they got from the JETS rounder and their 3rd (#88) in this draft , and their 1rst and 3rd rounders in 2025 to the FALCONS for their 1rst rounder (#8) ***TRADE***
8.PACKERS - (atl) - OLUMUYIWA FASHANU - OT - PENN ST.
9.BEARS-(car)- DALLAS TURNER - OLB/DE - ALABAMA
10.JETS - JC LATHAM - T/G- ALABAMA
11.VIKINGS - QUINYON MITCHELL - CB - TOLEDO
12.DENVER - JJ MCCARTHY - QB - MICHIGAN
13.RAIDERS- TALIESE FUAGA - OT - OREGON ST.
14.SAINTS - JARED VERSE - DE/OLB - FLORIDA ST.
15.COLTS - BROCK BOWERS - ** - TE - GEORGIA
16.SEATTLE - LAIATU LATU - ** - OLB/DE - UCLA
17.JAGUARS - JACKSON POWERS-JOHNSON- C/G -OREGON
18.BENGALS - TROY FAUTANU - G/T - WASHINGTON
19.RAMS - COOPER DEJEAN - ** - S/CB - IOWA
***TRADE*** The HOUSTON TEXANS TRADE THEIR 1rst (#23) and the 3rd they got from the EAGLES(#86) in this draft to the STEELERS for their 1rst rounder (#20) ***TRADE***
20.HOUSTON-(pitt)- BRIAN THOMAS JR. - WR - LSU
21.MIAMI - TYLER GUYTON - OT - OKLAHOMA
22.EAGLES - AMARIUS MIMS - ** - OT - GEORGIA
23.STEELERS - (hou,clev)- TERRION ARNOLD - CB - ALABAMA
***TRADE*** The KANSAS CITY CHIEFS TRADE THEIR 1rst (#32) 3rd (#95) and 4th (#133)rounders in this draft to the COWBOYS for their 1rst rounder (#24) and 5th (#173) rounders***TRADE***
24.CHIEFS- (dall) -TROY FRANKLIN - WR - OREGON
25.ATLANTA -(gb) - NATE WIGGINS - ** - CB - CLEMSON
26.TAMPA BAY - GRAHAM BARTON - OL - DUKE
27.ARIZONA - (hou) - JER'ZHAN NEWTON - DT - ILLINOIS
28.BILLS - ADONAI MITCHELL - WR - TEXAS
29.LIONS - ENNIS RAKESHAW - CB - MISSOURI
30.RAVENS - GA'QUINCY MCKINSTRY - CB - ALABAMA
31.S.F. 49ers - BYRON MURPHY - DT - TEXAS
32. DALLAS - (kc) - ZACH FRAZIER - ** - C - W. VIRGINIA
33.CAROLINA - LADD MCCONKEY - WR - GEORGIA
54.CLEVELAND - DARIUS ROBINSON - DT/DE - MISSOURI
BYRON MURPHY - DT - TEXAS will go top 15.
ReplyDeleteIt's certainly possible because the Falcons , Vikings , Bears , Broncos , Raiders , and Saints all need D-Line help. However , 6 of those teams are in the QB market right now. Plus some of those teams might want to trade up or down. Whether the trade is up for a QB , or down because of cap problems like the Broncos & Saints. Both of those teams have a lot of holes and the roster , and they need more picks with cheap salaries if they want to be able to field a competitive roster this season. I have a first round grade on both Murphy & Newton , but I think part of the reason Murphy has passed Newton on a lot of boards right now is the Jones fracture in Jer'zhan's foot. If the medicals come back good for Newton he could still go ahead of Murphy. If Newton is healthy I will have him slightly ahead of Murphy on my board because he has so many different ways to defeat blockers , and he faces a lot more double teams compared to Murphy , because Murphy had T'vondre Sweat next to him to take some of those doubles away from him.
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