2023 TWO ROUND NFL MOCK DRAFT With Trades and Player Comparisons - 4/21/23

  There are now just 7 days until the opening round of the NFL draft , and prospect visits are tapering off as teams arrange their final draft boards.  Personally I'm done watching any new players , and am watching tie-breaking games to separate prospects for my own final board. So lets start digging into the position that always causes the most drama & movement at the top of the draft. This QB class looks drastically better at QB compared to last years , but it's starting to look like more quantity over quality for me as I watch more game tape.  Plus the transfer portal has drastically changed the face of college football. I had never previously had more than 14 QB'S on my pre-season watchlist of draft eligible QB's , but I had 19 this year before the season started. Now I have watched 29 of them, but of the QB's who actually entered the draft there are only three that I would take in the first round , and Bryce Young is the only one I would be comfortable taking #1 overall. Young measured in at 5"10" and 1/8 and 204 pounds. Now he can't make himself taller, but it's good that he is gaining weight to alleviate NFL concerns about possible future durability. However , I expect 3 ( Young, CJ Stroud , Will Levis) to come off the board in the top 10 , and very possibly in the top 5 . There are 2 other QB'S ( Hendon Hooker & Anthony Richardson) that will probably be drafted in round one because of need , and it wouldn't shock me if Richardson sneaks into the top 10 ,  but I think that's crazy. The only other QB's in my top 3 rounds are Stanford's Tanner Mckee & Fresno States Jake Haener. Speaking of these potential draft eligible QB's , they are helped not only by the transfer portal, but surprisingly Covid as well. Too often these days QB's are rushing into the league with only a year or 2 of starting experience, but because of the extra year of eligibility granted due to Covid a lot of QB's are staying and getting a chance to polish & develop. Kenny Pickett wouldn't have been a 1rst rounder in 2022 without that extra year, and maybe the fact that Brock Purdy was a 4 year starter is part of the reason that he was balling out despite his low draft position.  At the very least it will help us to sort through their potential, and make the guys who end up making it in the NFL as backups more polished. The transfer portal has also thinned out this current draft as a whole because a lot of players are taking that NIL money to transfer & stay in school . Or just stay put & come back for another season to try and win a championship and/or to improve their draft stock. Some of the smarter players may even be trying to actually graduate! I see this as a defense heavy draft where there is some quality at every position , but it lacks a lot of definite first rounders on the whole, and it is more high on potential than it is on high floor guys. I only ended up with 21 definite first rounders , which is low considering that I am grading for every scheme, although the number of players who I have given a 3rd round grade is huge.  It's especially strong at cornerback , although edge rusher is pretty deep too , and the interior D-Line is growing on me after I watched more tape because there are so many edge guys that I think might be a better fit on the inside.  The underclassmen who I didn't expect to come out this year have only made all 3 positions even stronger , especially CB , and I expect a minimum of 15 CB's to come off the board in the 1rst 3 rounds. In fact,  half of the first round could be comprised of corners & D-Lineman of some kind.  The 2 clearly highest graded players that I have seen on tape so far are interior D-lineman Jalen Carter of Georgia & edge rusher Will Anderson of Alabama , and if it were up to me both would go in the top 4 picks , although Carters off the field concerns could see him fall as far as #10 now. On offense the depth of the RB , and TE classes are the 2 position groups that stand out. In fact RB Bijan Robinson is that rare elite duel threat prospect for the position , and while I personally wouldn't take a RB in the top 10 Robinson is the kind of high level prospect that could theoretically sneak into those heights. However the depth of the free agent & draft classes at both positions could cause teams to wait some  , and then allow RB's and TE's in this draft to be huge values on draft day. Just keep in mind that I think it's possible that 5 TE'S go in the top 50 , that 6 of them could go in top 64 , and that 10 TE's could be drafted in the first 3 rounds this year. There hasn't been a TE group this good since 2013 , and while that was a bad draft on the whole , a lot of the TE's in that draft have stood the test of time.  The 2013 draft included Pro Bowlers Tyler Eifert , Zack Ertz, Jordan Reed, and even the undrafted Jack Doyle. Plus one of the ALL TIME greats in Travis Kelce.  As far as RB's go only 6 went in the top 3 rounds last season, but as many as 10 could be drafted by the end of day 2 this year.  Also on the down side , and in a reverse of past few drafts no WR looks like a top 10 pick to me right now. In fact it seems like a smaller slot WR heavy class for the most part, where a max of 5 WR's could go in the 1rst round because of need, but with possibly as few as 3 of them on day one. As a whole there haven't been many clear standouts at the position this season, but TCU's raw & gifted Quentin Johnston was my bet to be the top WR off the board. I even thought he might even get into the top 10 if he ran fast at the combine , but after not doing much against Georgia in the National Championship I don't even know if Johnston will be drafted in the 1rst round , although to be fair he was wide open a few times and Duggan couldn't get the ball to him. Then Johnston declined to run at the combine , and his Pro day forty of 4.52 was just solid so he has fallen some for me, but he did show explosiveness in the jumps back in Indy. Maybe he still goes in the first round anyway , but he isn't even the top WR on my board anymore , and I don't have a first round grade on him. Right now I only have 11 WR's in my potential top 100, although if some injury & character questions are cleared up I might have 2 more.  In last years draft there were 4 WR's drafted in the top 12 picks, 6 in the first round , and 7 of them came off the board in first 34 picks.  Like always it is preferable to NFL teams that have the #1 pick that a QB goes at the top of the draft , even if the team that currently has the pick ( like Chicago) doesn't need a QB. As usual a QB will go #1 overall this year , whether they deserve it or not. I could be wrong, but this is my opinion about where the teams are at this moment.  Also, Lamar Jackson could still theoretically be a trade candidate if they can't work out a contract, or signed by another team since he was given the non exclusive version of the franchise tag. Although its hard for me to imagine the Ravens letting him go after Tyler Huntley bombed this year when Jackson was out , but then again Jackson has been hurt 2 years straight years to end the season. Also , Miami forfeited their #1 pick because of tampering with Tom Brady & Sean Payton. So there will only be 31 first round picks in this draft , but my projection of their draft position is clearly marked in red to make it known. In addition to the first round picks I have added the first selection for the teams who don't currently have a first round pick. I've added NFL player comparisons so you can have a idea of what type of player your team is getting , but I will change them if someone more suitable comes to mind. Keep in mind that the lower a player is ranked the less I see him having a chance of reaching his comp. Without further ado here it is. I welcome your comments , but please be cool about it. Agreeing or disagreeing is welcome, but please do it intelligently & respectfully , or I just won't post it. So here it is. Enjoy.

# Is for a player for with reported character or maturity concerns.

** Is for a player with reported injury concerns.

1.CAROLINA-(chc)- BRYCE YOUNG - QB - ALABAMA - 5"10" , 204

NFL PLAYER COMP - A mini JOE BURROW - BENGALS

With Frank Reich installed as head coach , and calling the plays himself , we now have a good idea of the type of offense they will be running. Now they just needed a QB. On defense they brilliantly hired former Broncos DC Ejiro Evero , who led that defense to a great 2022 season. It also means that the Panthers defense will be a base 3-4  , but it will be much more difficult to pull off without the Broncos vaunted secondary. The panthers have been playing musical chairs at QB since Cam Newtons decline, but now they have the number one pick to start over right. Giving up DJ Moore , their own 1rst (#9) , a 2nd (#61) , their 2023 first, and their 2025 2nd is a lot too. However, they came all the way up from # 9 to do it , and now they have their pick of QB's. Do they take Bryce Young or CJ Stroud? It has to be one of those two if you moved all the way up to #1. Maybe they believe Houston wants their 2nd choice, and make small move back to get another high draft pick. Personally I think they just sit here and pick their guy. The Vegas odds have moved to Stroud over Young after the trade took place , but that could just mean that their lies are being bought by the media. They are going to need to be players in free agency with their store of draft picks depleted , and are now lacking a #1 WR , and have many needs.  The Panthers have really upgraded their O-line recently, and resigning solid center Bradley Bozeman keeps that continuity going. They brought in another solid DT in Shy Tuttle from the rival saints , and brought back Henry Anderson as well. Andy Dalton gives them a veteran QB to start if the rookie isn't immediately ready , and to mentor the young guy as well. Adding a young veteran RB , can be a good idea , but I am not a Miles Sanders fan. D'onta Foreman coming off a solid year for them went to Chicago for only 3 million on a one year deal , and I would have just resigned him instead of giving Sanders 4 years and 25 million. Veteran safety Von Bell is a smart steady player who is still only 28 , and the price was reasonable. Veteran WR Adam Thielen is past his prime , but he is a established professional WR , who can run routes well. Plus the DJ Chark signing gives them a deep threat to stretch the field. I have had mocks with both Young & Stroud for them now , but I'm going with the my clear cut top QB now and giving them Bryce Young. Young was a 2 years starter for Bama  after wining the Gatorade National Player of the Year honors in his senior year of high school at football factory Mater Dei high. A 2 year starter after he beat out other highly touted recruits to win the job, and won the Heisman Trophy in his first year as a starter. I have watched  every game he played in college , and have broken down the tape on 12 of them , and I can confidently say he has never played a bad game in college.  Young definitely has the fastest reads I've seen in this draft class, which is amazing for only a 2 year starter. Poised with great timing , knows how to manipulate safeties , and he throws receivers open well. Can play in rhythm ,or go straight Houdini with his super improvisational scrambling and playmaking ability. Accurate everywhere and can make plays over the middle unlike most shorter QB's, and he can make throws from different arm angles & release points. Has enough arm strength to make all the necessary throw's when his feet are set , but he doesn't when he throws off his back foot , which he does more than he needs to. He elusive and can also run well when he needs to , but he tends to extend plays with his feet while keeping his eyes down the field. His high level pocket awareness, quick processing ,  and that aforementioned poise lead to him making a lot of plays that other QB's just can't.  While his O-Line was improved this year he still faced plenty of pressure, and got the snot knocked out him a lot over 2 seasons as the starter, and delivered anyway. With all that punishment & limited size he still only missed 2 games due to injury at Bama , and he swears he could have played in the 2nd one. His receivers dropped way too many catchable balls this season as well, and there was just a lack of talent at the WR position for Bama compared to previous years, which is why RB Jahmyr Gibbs lead the team in catches this season. The great O-line and WR talent that Stroud had, and Young didn't but still had better tape to my eyes is one of the main reasons I like Bryce over CJ. Yes , Young is a short QB who needs to put on 20 pounds of muscle, because even a guy this elusive is going to get hit more in the NFL , and he isn't built like Russel Wilson ( RB body & mass) either. Despite the lack of size I believe he is that rare player who defies conventional standards , and that he will be a good NFL starter anyway. Bryce was listed at 6 feet and 194 pounds at Alabama. When he finally weighed in at the combine he showed up 5"10" and 1/4, a surprising 204 pounds , and big 9 and 3/4 inch hands , but didn't workout yet. Here is the ultimate separator for me. In the 20 years I have been breaking down draft prospect film the only other 3 college QB's that I saw that could match him from a mental processing  stand point were Eli Manning , Andrew Luck , and Joe Burrow. Pretty good company , and I firmly believe if Bama was up to their usual standards in O-Lineman & WR talent ( Like Hurts , Tua, and Jones had) in 2022 that Bryce would have won the Heisman again & led them to another National Championship. He's a leader with great mobility leadership & intangibles , a high football IQ & processing ability, and a genius level of improvisation.  I would select him with the first pick in this draft and sleep soundly thereafter.

2.TEXANS - CJ STROUD - QB- OHIO ST. - 6"3" , 214

NFL PLAYER COMP - DESHAUN WATSON - BROWNS

On the way out after a one and done season departing head coach Lovie Smith stuck it to the Texans by winning another game ,and costing them the #1 pick. While I like the Demeco Ryans hire as the new HC I think it was unfair to fire Lovie  , because I doubt anyone could have done better with the crappy roster the 2022 Texans had. The problem isn't just that it cost them the #1 overall pick, but also the only QB in this draft that I would be willing to pay the price and trade up to #1 overall in Bryce Young. Now I am sure a few teams will have CJ Stroud or even Will Levis as their top QB. Maybe the Texans are one of them , but personally I see a clear margin in grade between the 2 QB's. Since the Bears want to stick with Fields and trade down the Texans were their best possible trade partner. Maybe the Bears getting the Texans  2nd and Brandin Cooks,  or some other package while still having their choice of Jalen Carter or Will Anderson was their dream scenario. The Texans get their franchise QB  ,and could probably trade Davis Mills for a 3rd or 4th. I just doubt that the Bears would have made it cheap.  Even better for the Bears would be to take the Houston deal trade back again to #4 if the Colts still want to move up to #2 to get a QB, and now they have even more picks, but still get one of the 2 elite players at a premium position this draft in Carter or Anderson. So all 3 teams get what they want , but the Texans get the best QB in this draft for the long haul to jump start the franchise. That's over now, as the Panthers have the top pick after the trade  ,but it is still possible they swap with the Texans , although I doubt that too. The Texans had over 35 million in cap space before making any cuts so they could be a player in free agency as well. Their only possible key current free agent was Edge rusher Ogbonnia Oronkwo , but he signed with the Browns. So far the Texans have brought in veteran backup QB Case Keenum , veteran WR Robert Woods , and veteran TE Andrew Beck all on cheap 2 year deals. Veteran guard Shaq Mason for a late drat pick excites me more than any of those moves , because at least he is a definite starter. Safety/CB Jimmie Ward who HC Demeco Ryans had in Frisco is even better , but I was expecting more of big splash to start free agency.  I was especially expecting the Texans to be going after pass rushers. Backup DT Hassan Ridgeway also comes from Frisco with familiarity with Ryans scheme ,  but he is likely just a rotational guy. DT Sheldon Rankins is far more valuable as a interior pass rusher , and he is worth the one year 10.5 million dollar deal he signed if he can stay healthy. They traded disgruntled , but productive regardless of QB , receiver Brandin Cooks on the  cheap for a couple of late picks. RB Devin Singletary and his make you miss style can be a good compliment to the power running of Dameon Pierce. Their best signing was Dalton Schultz on a bargain one year 9 million dollar deal to upgrade the TE position at the end of the week. Roster building is a tricky business, and it is smarter to build through the draft for the long haul , but with these last 2 moves added to early week ones I see the Texans roster as significantly improved.  It's even possible they don't take a QB , and build the roster up even more before doing so, but I doubt that the most.  I am saying they stand pat and take Stroud or Young , depending on who the Panthers don't take , and teh panthers took Young already. The first time I saw CJ Stroud he entered late in the Michigan St. game as a true freshman after the buckeyes had already clinched it, and then he ran 48 yards for a TD. So I figured at least this guy can run, The next time I saw him was the 2021 season opener against Minnesota, and while he didn't run much in that game , he didn't need to . He seemed to have the same playing style as Justin Fields before him as a passer. That being a guy that wants to throw the ball deep down the field, and ignores the underneath stuff, even when he shouldn't. The next game was against Oregon, and they lost, and I believe the lions share of the blame should have fallen on Stroud. Here are some of my notes from that game. "Not sure how much authority he has to audible, because there were multiple run plays where a CB was playing so far off the WR it could have been a gimme first down on a quick hitter , or a quick scramble, but he either didn't see it or didn't audible. Didn't identify or see the blitz coming quick enough on that 3rd & 2 near the goal line late in the 3rd, and it cost them because he was trying to go down the field. Kept going backwards making it harder to complete the pass ,and was off target in the end zone when Ruckert was open underneath for the 1rst down. Over threw a wide open Wilson on a play that could have tied the game. Nice scramble for 1rst down, but has ignored too many chances to run when it was open, and they aren't calling the designed runs that they did for Fields. Threw a sort of underneath pass to the WR on 3rd & 20? Held the ball too long & sacked on 1rst down of final drive , and Ruckert was wide open in the middle. Overthrew a tightly covered Wilson , when again , Ruckert was wide open-this rime underneath. Overthrew a open Wilson for a pick while scrambling outside. " So I was worried that he had Fields strengths & weaknesses as a passer, and lacked his running ability. The same pattern existed all year as a passer & in lack of use as a runner, but he did throw underneath more. Especially to Jaxon-Smith Njigba so I had hope that he was progressing as a passer. When their bowl game against Utah came I was interested to see what he would do with that month plus time off, and how he would fare without Garrett Wilson & Chris Olave. He lit it up, and while Jaxon was the main beneficiary he also threw another 3 TD's to Marvin Harrison JR. in what became a sign of things to come in 2022. He also had stopped forcing the ball down the field for the most part, and I was eagerly anticipating his 2022 film to see if he would start to use his legs more. During the 2022 regular season he only used them a lot against Northwestern's stud defense, and used them well. However, his 2022 reads were faster, his accuracy & ball placement even better, and that was without Smith-Njigba. Yes, you can say its a lot easier to put up big numbers with 4 or 5 first round WR's , and I believe that all 5 will get in after Jaxon runs, and you would be right. Marvin Harrison Jr. is going top 5 next season , and Emeka Egbuka won't be far behind. Plus Jameson Williams who went #12 overall in 2022 had transferred away from Ohio ST, because he didn't get on the field enough! So yes, great WR talent helps. Plus I believe Stroud had the best O-Line in the nation in 2022. I know Michigan won the Joe Moore award for best O-Line , but I disagree. I would have ranked it - 1.Ohio St. , 2.Notre Dame , 3.USC  , and Michigan 4th. He still produced though, and even though he didn't beat Michigan, we finally got to see him using his legs again against Georgia in the playoffs. Personally I contend that if Harrison JR. didn't get hurt in that game that they would have beat Georgia , and that the Buckeyes would be National Champions again. Harrison did get hurt though, and you never really know how it could have ended. Plus the scoreboard doesn't lie so Georgia did win it. Still ,  for the second time I got to see Stroud take that month plus layoff , self scout, and get better at things he needed to improve on. That's a great sign for future success. Love them or hate them , and I never liked either from a personality standpoint, one of the things I always admired about Kobe Bryant & Lebron is that they would come into next season having added something to their games. So its a sign of greatness  because even though I wouldn't want to be friends with Kobe or Lebron , I definitely want them on my basketball team. The fact that Stroud has that same mentality really impresses me, because prior to the Georgia game it really pissed me off that he missed so many obvious chances to run on film  ,and I mean scrambling - not designed runs. Hopefully he keeps it in mind going forward , and based off the positive response he has gotten from it I believe it will continue. Stroud is very accurate with good ball placement , quick reads, and he throws guys open. Good rhythm & timing when he's untouched, but before the Georgia game he tended to stumble when pressured. Sometimes when the pocket it was clean it looked like a 7 on 7 drill with his smooth robotic over the top motion from the pocket. Good enough arm strength, throws a really nice deep ball. Trusts his arm to fit it in tight windows when necessary , and while he was improved at taking what's available underneath this season , I still think he takes unnecessary chances . I get that when you have such great receivers that you want to let your receivers make a play, but it's unlikely that he will ever have such a gaggle of stud WR's at the NFL level ,or the amount of time he regularly had at Ohio ST.  So checking down needs to become even more of a priority in the NFL , and it can't just be to the slot. He had 2 good TE's in college in Jeremy Ruckert & Cade Stover and neither got the amount of balls that they deserved. Hopefully he learns how much of a safety blanket that TE can be in the NFL.  Pressure in his face can make him drop his eyes too quickly. Smooth fluid mechanics the majority of the time. Good feet in the pocket when there is somewhere to move, and can extend the play if he gets free, but generally only runs when has to. Most of the time didn't throw well on the move , but again that looked improved in his final college game. Average NFL frame could be the reason some teams will prefer him over Bryce Young , but he will also need to get used to a lot more snaps under center. For me It basically comes down to whether you believe that final game against Georgia was a sign of the future . He has publicly said since then that he plans to use his legs more in the future now that everyone is raving about it. I am willing to take his word for it right now. 

3.ARIZONA - WILL ANDERSON  - OLB/DE - ALABAMA - 6"4" . 253

NFL PLAYER COMP - CLAY MATTHEWS - retired

First off I didn't like this head coaching hire. Yes, Gannon is a versatile guy who has also been a scout, but I just watched Mahomes & Reid carve him up in the Super Bowl. Yes, they do that to a lot of people , but I still don't like the hire,. The Eagles had too much defensive talent to give up 38 points in the Superbowl , unless the DC was badly outcoached , and Gannon has publicly admitted he didn't do a good job in that game. Jonathan Gannon ( who was not even remotely near their 1rst choice)  runs a zone heavy defensive system & rarely blitzes , but he won't have the same high level depth of pass rushers or starting corners in Zona that he had in Philly. So either he is going to have to change it up some, draft & coach up a lot of pass rushers & corners , or have a really bad defense in 2023. They did draft 2 young edge players in Cam Thomas & Myjai Sanders in the 2nd & 3rd round last season so at least the cupboard isn't completely bare.  No matter what Gannon tries I expect this team to be bad in 2023. When Kyler Murray finally returns from injury he needs to put on his big boy pants, study hard , and show he wants to be the QB of this team . Because the Cards may have the #1 pick next year , and his whiny entitled ass could end up being traded on the cheap just to dump his contract next off season, if they can find a desperate enough team to take him. Zach Allen was their only possible key free agent young enough to possibly be worth resigning , because he might still be a viable player when they are good again but I wouldn't give him a big deal. His best work is done inside as a pass rusher, and while he has improved gradually throughout his career, Allen lacks the athleticism to ever be the kind of guy I want to throw 10-15 million dollars a year at on a long term deal. If he was more sudden off the edge I would like it, but he's just a solid player to me. He signed with the Broncos for 3 years and close to 48 million , which is too much in my book. They also lost starting CB Byron Murphy to the Vikings. At least the Cards were close to 13 million under the cap even before they started making moves. This is clearly a rebuilding team , and I expect a lot of vets to be traded or cut soon. Especially older vets with a high cap number like DHOP , Robbie Anderson, or Zach Ertz  could be traded or cut to speed up the rebuild. Although I doubt they want to trade Pro Bowl safety Budda Baker , but he has reportedly requested one anyway. The Cards did resign guard Will Hernandez , OT Kelvin Beachum , and kicker Matt Prater to low cost deals.  Incoming low cost free agents are guard Hjalte Froholdt and LB Kyzir White. If they can trade down they should , as it would speed up the rebuild, but its also very hard to trade away from a potential franchise cornerstone in Will Anderson or Jalen Carter. Or at least Anderson , because after his off the field trouble and out of shape Pro Day workout Carter has some work to do repairing his draft stock. Plus the only way they are likely to get a trade down is if someone wants to take another QB at #3. Right now lets sit still and take Anderson. Being a starter as a true freshman at Alabama is rare, and it was weird when they kicked such a light guy inside so much , but it worked. Anderson really made his bones on year 2 & 3 on the outside. Now that Anderson came to his 3rd year , and his national profile & production was so large , it's understandable that every team & player going against him didn't want to get beaten by him specifically. Bama moved him around a lot more in 2022 , and while I think it's nice to show your versatility , I also believe it hurt his ability to fill up the stat sheet. Combine that with Will being the focus of every offense they have played and you might get the false impression that he has went backwards this year. So many double teams & chips on the way out will slow down anyone's ability to make plays , but he still made plenty of them. So I disagree , because watching the tape shows that he is still a playmaker , and that Anderson creates one on ones for teammates. Wil has a good frame with the size & length to put on 10-15 more pounds of muscle. A nice burst off the ball and a finishers kick at the top of the rush. Anderson has both a pass rush plan , and multiple moves he can with. He can bend the arc some , but not a super dip under run the arc guy. Counters well , knows how to use his length & hands really well. Fluid & athletic enough to drop in coverage, and I still believe a 3-4 team is his best fit. He is very strong for his size , and that has helped him to hold up against the run on the edge despite being under 250 pounds on tape , but he can get shut down when he tries to go through power O-Lineman instead of going around them.  Initially it seemed to be a big deal to me that he weighed in at 253 at the combine ,  because you do see him start to get worn down by the occasional bigger O-Lineman against the run late in games at his previous weight. However that 10 pound weight gain on the quick might have worked against him a little in the combine workout. He seemed a little less athletic than he appears on tape , but maybe I am just nitpicking. Will had a nice solid workout , and if was over shadowed by a group of guys at his position so what? Andersons tape cast a bigger shadow over the tape of all these guys , and that's the trump card for me.  Anderson sometimes needs to be a better finisher on impact because he misses too many tackles. That and the need to put on a little good weight are his only worries for me . A high floor and good ceiling make him the safest player at a key position in this draft on my board. Definite top 5 pick, but if it weren't for the tremendous overarching value of QB's in any draft I think Anderson would be a lock to go top 2. 

4.COLTS - WILL LEVIS - ** -  QB - KENTUCKY - 6"4" , 230

NFL PLAYER COMP - JOSH ALLEN - BILLS

The Colts have been trying to stay competitive with veteran QB retreads , and since they weren't picking very high before it made sense to me.  Unfortunately it didn't work out. Now it appears they are going to start over with a young guy , but they have a roster with the potential to return to the playoffs right away if they get the right QB , and they can get the key players who were injured last season to return healthy.  Matt Ryan was cut as soon as they could spread the cost over multiple years. so the question was do they trade up to #1 overall and get the QB they love most , or sit at #4 and hope a guy they still like is there. Well the panthers made the trade up to #1 so they are probably stuck at #4 , but they probably will they select a young QB there. They signed Gardner Minshew, and that gives them a young veteran with starting experience so they don't have to rush a rookie QB onto the field , but I think drafting any of these QB's not named Bryce Young or CJ Stroud at #4 is a mistake. If it's me , and Young & Stroud are gone , I either take the best player available or trade back if I can. Even if they take someone else in the first , trade back or not , I would then trade into the bottom of the first or sit at pick #35 of the second taking Hendon Hooker. So it's either the kinds of raw, but really talented with experience in a pro style offense Will Levis , or the even more raw & more talented Anthony Richardson who will take even longer to be able to play in a Pro system. There is boom or bust potential for both QB's , but much less bust for Levis to me. Key free agents were safety Rodney Mcleod and LB Bobby Okereke , but Okereke is younger and in more demand. Lesser free agents are Yannick Ngakoue coming off a down year, and WR Parris Campbell wo was finally healthy and played OK. Okereke signed a pretty big 4 year deal with the Giants , and Campbell signed a cheaper one year pact with the same team. The only other deals of note for incoming besides Minshew are DE Samson Ebukam & kicker Matt Gay. Biggest needs after QB are RG ,  and maybe LT unless they trust Bernard Riamann.   After the random Jeff Saturday head coaching debacle I think the Colts got a good one if former Eagles OC Shane Steichen. So this time lets say the Colts sit at #4 and take a QB. After I watched the 2021 tape of Levis before the season I thought there was at least a decent chance that he would end up my #1 QB in this draft , but multiple injuries ( ankle , shoulder, and turf toe) , a new OC , and a weak supporting cast ended that. Levis has a big frame, good mobility, and a big arm. However this year it was a short passing game that didn't let him show what he could do , and he definitely throws better to his right.  Plus he had a lot of turnovers & took too many unnecessary sacks, because he didn't throw the ball away enough of the time when there was nowhere to go, although that is common with cannon armed QB's because they know they have the gun to fit in tight windows late . In fact Levis was throwing off that cannon at combine by throwing the ball 80 yards in the air. Levis played in a Pro style offense so that gives him a big edge over all the top QB's in this draft except Bryce Young. His mechanics still need work though , but he looks good when in rhythm , although when he's thrown off he doesn't adapt well yet. Not a lot of NFL talent on his offense , and his O-Line was especially been faulty this year. He was getting hit so much that he developed happy feet  , scattershot accuracy ,  started looking for the next hit, and was no longer focused on throwing the ball. Levis tried to play through turf toe, which  is not only painful , but also sapped the mobility he needed to make plays. He was getting pain shots before every game , and the injury showed on the field , because the tape was much better before the injury. Turf toe can be chronic , and has ended careers before so I am hesitant about moving him up more until the medicals come back. If the medicals come back good I might give him a first round grade , but right now I just can't. While I am not among those who think Josh Allen is a elite QB , I do think he is a good one , but I don't think he will ever be accurate enough to qualify as elite . I have heard multiple people compare Anthony Richardson to Josh Allen , but for me the 2022 tape on Levis fits the comparison better for the Bills QB. Like Allen he played in a Pro style offense with very little talent around him , and was forced to try to do too much himself. Levis also the similar high end tools & traits. Plus he developed happy feet & bad mechanics due to a bad O-Line , and was moving out of the pocket & running when it was unnecessary , just like Levis. Will is also known as a smart high character & leadership guy like Allen was coming out of college. He even has that same physical running style. It's a high comp, and it's a big IF , but if he goes the right coaching staff he could reach the same level of play.  Steichen was instrumental in the development of both Justin Herbert & Jalen Hurts , and he could be the guy to hep Levis harness his talents. Levis is a 5th year senior who transferred to the Kentucky after 3 years at Penn ST.  ,He was a team captain and the starter for the Wildcats the last 2 seasons. After I watched the 2021 tape of Levis before the season I thought there was at least a decent chance that he would end up my #1 QB in this draft , but multiple injuries ( ankle , shoulder, and turf toe) , a new OC , and a weak supporting cast ended that. Levis has a big frame, good mobility, and a big arm. However this year it was a short passing game that didn't let him show what he could do , and he definitely throws better to his right. . Plus he had a lot of turnovers & took too many unnecessary sacks, because he didn't throw the ball away enough of the time when there was nowhere to go, although that is common with cannon  armed QB's because they know they have the gun to fit it  in tight windows late . In fact Levis was showing off that cannon at combine by throwing the ball 80 yards in the air. Levis plays in a Pro style offense so that gives him a big edge over all the top QB's in this draft except Bryce Young. His mechanics still need work though , but he looks good when in rhythm , although when he's thrown off he doesn't adapt well yet. Not a lot of NFL talent on his offense this season , and his O-Line has especially been faulty this year. He was getting hit so much that he developed happy feet  , scattershot accuracy ,  started looking for the next hit, and was no longer focused on throwing the ball. Levis tried to play through turf toe, which is not only painful , but also sapped the mobility he needed to make plays. He was getting pain shots before every game , and the injury showed on the field , because the tape was much better before the injury. Turf toe can be chronic , and has ended careers before so I am hesitant about moving him up more until the medicals come out. If the medicals come back good I might give him a first round grade , but right now I just can't. While I am not among those who think Josh Allen is a elite QB , I do think he is a good one , but I don't think he will ever be accurate enough to qualify as elite . I have heard multiple people compare Anthony Richardson to Josh Allen , but for me the 2022 tape on Levis fits the comparison better for the Bills QB. Like Allen he played in a Pro style offense with very little talent around him , and was forced to try to do too much himself. Levis also the similar high end tools & traits. Plus he developed happy feet & bad mechanics due to a bad O-Line , and was moving out of the pocket & running when it was unnecessary. Levis is also known as a smart high character & leadership guy like Allen was coming out of college. It's a high comp, and it's a big IF , but if he goes the right coaching staff he could reach the same level of play. At the combine his arm mechanics looked more consistent , but his feet still drifted some. Maybe his accuracy & mechanics can be fixed by the right QB coach. Maybe he will develop better pocket presence and touch too. It's very possible that he will improve overall if he is left in one system with one main voice in his ear , instead of having 4 different OC's like he did in college. Either way it's too many 'IF'S" to risk a top 10 pick on. The earliest I would consider him is with Washington at #17 , but I think his tools will see him go higher. Lets just hope he goes to a good situation with talent around him , and with a coach that can help him flesh out his skull set. at 23 , and with Pro style offense experience he has a chance to start earlier than most rookie QB's. Does he go to the right situation though? Lets hope that Steichen can work his magic on Levis.

5.SEATTLE -(denv)-JALEN CARTER - # - DT - GEORGIA- 6"3" , 314

NFL PLAYER COMP - CORTEZ KENNEDY - retired

The Seahawks traded Russell Wilson to rebuild, and it went much better than I anticipated , and it almost seemed like they were deliberately trolling Russ. In addition to investing in the O-Line in both the 1rst & 3rd round, after years of letting Wilson get the crap kicked out of him, both OT's played well for a rookie. Then Geno Smith had a unexpected career resurgence as the replacement for Wilson ,and his quiet efficiency overshadowed the injury filled train wreck that Wilson suffered through in Denver. Seattle even turned this rebuilding year into a wildcard playoff spot. The Seahwaks 2022 draft turned out great as a whole with CB Tariq Woolen , RB Kenny Walker, and even CB Coby Bryant playing a lot of quality snaps. Geno is the only free agent I would call key , and after taking all their cap hits last season they were close to 25 million under the cap when the Superbowl ended  , and could be a player in free agency if they wished to. They already signed young 3 technique Dre'Mont Jones away from the broncos , and seem to redoing their interior D-Line , because Shelby Harris , Quinton Jefferson , and Al Woods have been released. They also brought back DT Jarren Reed in free agency after a couple of years playing away from Seattle. Incoming safety/CB Julian Love is still young and coming off his best season, but I have to assume they see him as more of nickle corner because they have Quandre Diggs & Jamal Adams under big contracts already. However , a lot of teams are running more big nickle 3 safety looks these days , and it could be a lot more prevalent in Seattle this year. The move I like most is bringing back franchise legend ,and future HOFer Bobby Wagner. After a single ALL PRO season with the Rams , they weirdly cut him in a salary cap move. I thought the Rams should have been able to trade him considering that he was coming off another ALL PRO campaign, but I guess I overestimated the value of a great 32 year old LB. I actually thought he would end up with Philly or Dallas ,because they are both seem kind of ALL IN right now , but they both missed out. Plus the Seahawks got him for a bargain 7 million on a one year deal. This 5th overall pick from the Wilson trade gave the Seahawks a chance to pursue a QB at the top of the draft if they didn't want to meet Geno's contract demands , but they signed him to a new 3 year deal. Plus its a fair deal at 3 year 75 million with another 30 million in incentives if he keeps playing well. I can't see Seattle taking a WR or interior O-Lineman this high so that means D-Line here , because they don't take corners in the 1rst two rounds during the Pete Carrol era. Or they could trade down and get even more picks , but I think if Jalen Carter or Will Anderson is available it will be hard for Pete Carroll to pass on either. Even with Geno's new deal they could take a Hendon Hooker or Tanner Mckee with with one of their two 2nd rounders ( #37 & #52) . Plus D-Line ,both inside & out , is their biggest need now that they have a QB. . So I am going with Carter because Pete Carrol has rarely cared about character or maturity questions.  Carter is Godzilla strong & super explosive on the inside. He can play any of the interior D-line positions in a odd or even front, and play them well. Georgia had 2 DT's taken in the 1rst round last year , and while watching tape on both Jordan Davis & Devonte Wyatt one thing was clear. #88 ( Carter) was clearly better than both of them on the field. He has a violent style of play that comes out quickly when his hands make contact with potential blockers with meaty rips , clubs , and slaps.  He's rocked up , has a great low burst off the ball ,and he pummels blockers on contact with knockback power. He's not refined or subtle , but more like a Godzilla in a china shop. Has the power to hold against double teams , and the the strength and leverage to break up blocks on the regular. When you see Carter forklift & bulldoze some poor O-Lineman you almost feel sorry for them.  Carter battled injuries this year , and still played very well once the early rust wore off. The only 2 guys I saw slow him down some were O'cyrus Torrance & Steve Avila, and they are both rare big powerful guys. Your average on the move NFL zone guard will just be a speed bump to him. In Georgia's heavy D-Line rotation he doesn't have to play a ton of snaps , but still looks occasionally gassed. That and any possible maturity character issues are his only negatives. He looked a little out of shape and gassed at his pro Day too , which is seriously concerning because he only did a positional workout. No combine runs & jumps , and he had gained 9 pounds in the 2 weeks since the combine , but he still got gassed ? That is very concerning.  If he is focused on football , and actually starts to do the little technical things his angry style of play lacks at times he looks like a perennial ALL - PRO to me , but he wasn't focused enough to show out in his Pro Day. Pete Carrol is a players coach , and he always seems to think he can coach up anyone with the physical ability to make it big.  So I think he will push to draft someone with this much talent. 

6.LIONS- (rams) - CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ - CB - OREGON - 6"1' , 197

NFL PLAYER COMP - NNAMDI ASOMUGHA - retired

By the second half of last season the Lions started to show the promise I was hoping they would. They just missed the playoffs, and the main reason was the defense , but it had improved in the 2nd half as a lot of young guys took a step forward. Rookies DE Aidan Hutchinson , safety Kirby Joseph , and LB Malcom Rodriguez all made strides. Plus 2nd year guys DT Alin Mcneil & CB Jerry Jacobs showed some promise at times, especially Mcneil. Even former #3 overall pick CB Jeffrey Okudah was finally healthy and had just started to fulfill his promise , but the Lions instead dumped him for a 5th round pick to the Falcons so he must not be a locker room fit.  The Lions had over 23 million in cap space when the season ended , and they have plenty of overpriced vets they could cut , and fill those spots with young hungry cheap draft picks or some judicious free agent signings. RB Jamaal Williams coming off a career year where he rushed for over 1,000 yards and led the league in rushing TD's is probably the only free agent who deserves to be brought back, but they let him sign with the Saints on a cheap deal anyway , which I thought was odd. This season is playoffs or bust , and while I am not a long term believer in Jared Goff he did play pretty well when it was indoors last season , but I would really love it if they took a QB like Hooker or Mckee with one of their two ( #48 & #55) 2nd rounders. 2023 is the last year where they have to pay Goff big money without big cap consequences , and if he can't learn to play consistently throughout the season it would be good to have a guy ready to step. A lot of guys struggle in bad weather, but they play in a division where they have to go to Green bay & Chicago in the winter months every year, and who knows where they will have to play in the playoffs which are also in winter. So Goff may not be the best long term fit in Detroit.  RB Jonah Jackson is also a free agent. Deandre Swift just needs to be healthy, and this is huge RB draft & free agent class. Plus RB Bijan Robinson is great RB  prospect that could easily be there when they pick at #18 if he is there, and their are a dozen RB's in this draft that could give you starter snaps in 2023. The one move I didn't like was bringing back LB Alex Anzalone , because I just see him as a replacement level guy. They did sign David Montgomery away from the rival Bears , so RB is a lesser need now. Plus the Lions have a great O-Line that any RB would be happy to run behind , and bringing original Lion Graham Glasgow back after 3 years with the Broncos improves their interior O-Line depth. Unless they go QB here, and I highly doubt it , I see them going best player available here. Even though they signed CB's Cameron Sutton , Emmanuel Mosley , and CB/safety CJ Gardner Johnson in free agency I would still take a corner here. Gonzalez is a big , fast , fluid CB. Has been a starter since midway through his true freshman season , and has 30 starts in the PAC 12. While did opt out of Oregon's bowl game , at least he waited until they were out of the playoffs , so I don't blame him for it. He has the tools & traits that ever team covets in a potential number one corner , 2 good years of back to back tape to judge , and the feet & movement skills of a smaller corner. A lot of people loved this guy early , and when I watched him improve throughout the season I got it ,  but in my first viewing of him he got worked some against Georgia in week one. Since I wasn't on him before the season , and he had transferred from Colorado , I really felt the need to go back and check out his previous games for the Buffaloes. Since I also liked his Colorado tape when I went back to see how he had progressed I felt pretty good about him going forward. He's a smooth mover with fluid hips , and makeup speed of a smaller man on tape. Gonzalez is still a bit raw from a technical & route recognition standpoint. So basically his timing to turn & find the ball, or when to drive out of the WR's break are still a tick slow,   but he has good ball skills. Looks good in both press & zone. Really got better at shutting down fades in the 2nd half of the season. He's a solid tackler too, but not quite as big or strong as I was hoping he would be. However,  Christian also has the running ability to potentially take it to the house when he picks it. Gonzalez also had a great combine workout that showed off his speed & athleticism. At 6"1" , 197 , with 32 inch long arms he put on a show. A 4.38 forty , great jumping numbers with a 41.5 vertical, 11.1 foot broad jump were all excellent.  

7.RAIDERS -  ANTHONY RICHARDSON- QB - FLORIDA -6"4" , 244

NFL PLAYER COMP  - STEVE MCNAIR - retired

I confess that i have no idea why the raiders are doing what they are doing. They bring in Adams and go ALL IN last year, and even though injuries to Waller , Renfrow , and the O-line all hurt them a lot they just give up on Derek Carr after missing the playoffs in the best division in the league. The hindsight of signing Carr to a new deal that they could get out if after one year was brilliant , but I still feel they gave up on him real quick considering all the key injuries last season. Carr didn't have his best season , and there were times I felt he should have thrown it to Adams more or less , but damm. I don't know if this is Josh McDaniels putting his stamp on the team ,  whether he has another particular type of QB in mind , if Carr is just the scapegoat for last season , or if McDaniel stupidly thinks any other QB can match up to Tom Brady. If Brady was going to Vegas I would get it , but he is retired , and the price they paid for Adams now seems dumb unless they have a QB ace up their sleeves. They pick 7th so they don't have their choice of draft QB's , and this roster has too many holes to think they can package picks and still compete now. With new big contracts for Adams, Renfrow, and Waller this team doesn't seem to be rebuilding. They don't have any key free agents  , but since they did have plenty of cap space once the season ended, spending a lot of money in free agency seems to be their only path to maybe making the playoffs this season. They brought in the often injured Jimmy Garoppolo  to be their stop gap QB, and at least Mcdaniels is familiar with him from their Patriots days. Another former Pat in slot WR Jakobi Myers only makes sense if you are moving on from Renfow , so stay tuned for that. They already traded Darren Waller to the Giants for a 3rd rounder , but they should have no problem finding a TE or two in this draft. Plus they did sign 2 talented veteran TE's cheap deals in OJ Howard & Austin Hooper. I wouldn't take a QB here unless one they already love falls to them , but the Raiders rarely do  what they should. I don't love Anthony Richardson , but if Al Davis was still alive I think he would , and it often seems like his son Mark wants to please his ghost. So I'm going to give him to the Raiders this time. He can run like  Lamar Jackson , but has a bigger more durable body , and a lot less miles on his tires compared to Jackson. Although Jackson is far ahead of him as passer, especially in making Pro style reads. Richardson is the ultimate boom or bust prospect for me, and if he is a boom it could still take awhile for him to become a good passer , if he ever does. Only 12 college starts , it took him a long time to win the starting job , and he has a losing record as a starter.  Big strong frame, big strong arm, and a really good runner. All those elite tools & traits are great, but every part of his game as a passer needs work. Decision making , accuracy , timing , mechanics ,  and the speed of his reads are raw right now. However , his receivers did let him down a lot , but he also needs to take some heat off the ball at close range. The fact that it took him so long to become the absolute starter also worries me. He is built like a big LB , moves  like Micah Parsons, and is tough enough to take one on when running. If you are drafting him , and expect him to start now you are going to have to tailor your offense to what he already does well ( running) , and probably limit him to half field reads while he grows. It has become common these days so it's not the huge deal it used to be. Plus similarly big bodied running QB's like Cam Newton & Josh Allen have had early success with this plan, and Richardson is significantly faster & more athletic than both of them. Richardson's running & jumping numbers at the combine were ELITE. A 4.43 forty. Even though I gave him the Newton comp he's not as far along , and didn't make anywhere near the plays The Heisman Trophy winning Newton did in college , but he does have the same upside as the former NFL MVP. When your workout numbers include 1.53 ten yard split, 40.5 vertical & a 10"9" broad jump give coaches a lot to dream about. It also seems clear he has been working on his mechanics as a passer with someone since he left Florida too, and his accuracy in the combine throwing session was improved some , but he still struggles throwing the ball to the outside. I am not as high am not as high on him as basically everyone else in the world , but since he is a tooled out QB I would be willing to take the risk in the 2nd round. Pretty sure he goes in the first though , and the question is just how high at this point , and whether or not a trade up is involved. Maybe Mcdaniel could help him unlock his elite potential , and hopefully Jimmy G stays healthy so they don't need to rush him onto the field, but I would put in a Taysom Hill type package for Richardson on day one.

8.ATLANTA - TYREE WILSON - ** - DE -TEXAS TECH - 6"6" , 271

NFL PLAYER COMP -  CARLOS DUNLAP - CHIEFS

In what was a obvious rebuilding year I personally think Arthur Smith did a brilliant job of coaching last season. When your team takes all its cap hits , and manages to remain competitive with all that dead money limiting your ability to field a good roster , you are a BOSS! Now the Falcons had close to 64 million in cap space before free agency this year , and only RT Kaleb Mcgary is someone I would call a key free agent.  They should have been in on all the same guys that The bears are in on. Here is my list of younger players who didn't get the franchise tag that should interest everyone , but particularly the cap flush teams - RT Mike Mcglincey , CB Jamel Dean , CB James Bradberry , LB Tremaine Edmunds ,  , DT Dremont Jones , LB David Long , LB TJ Edwards , T/G Kaleb Mcgary , LB Bobby Okereke ,  guard Dalton Risner , and maybe even DE Marcus Davenport if you think you can keep him healthy. At least 2 or 3 of these guy should be signed by the Falcons , and they can start filling the rest of their roster holes in the draft. Well , the Falcons went balls out as soon as free agency opened. They started out smart by resigning their own guys. 1- They resigned Pro Bowl guard Chris Lindstrom a year early to big 5 year deal , and then resigned McGary to a three year deal, so the right side of their O-Line is settled. 2- Brought back edge rusher Lorenzo Carter on a 2 year deal. 3- They brought in one of the guys on my list in safety Jessie Bates on a 4 year deal. 4- DT  David Onyemata is a risk to me because after years of steady productivity he started to go downhill some last season after a 6 game suspension for PED's. He will turn 31 this season ,and already appeared to be in decline , which could be sped up without the PED's. 5- I like the signing of LB Kaden Ellis to a 3 year deal more , and he broke out some last season when he got more playing time due to injuries. Plus its the 2nd player in a row they took away from the rival Saints. 6- Signing QB Taylor Heinicke to a 2 year deal gives them coverage as well. He is a proven stop gap low end starter. Bringing in a future HOFer like Calais Campbell is big for a young team , but I really feel like a lot of other NFL teams that are in a Superbowl window missed out on a chance to add him to their team right now , but maybe he will be moved at the trade deadline to a real contender. So if Ridder ,or a new QB they draft isn't ready . they can still compete for the division title. 7- Getting veteran TE Jonnu Smith for a 7th rounder, who Arthur Smith is familiar with from his time with the titans, also fits well. Big WR Mack Hollins one a one year deal fits too, because he is a good blocker coming off a career year. Not enough coaches play to their teams strength , but Smith does , and he will find ways to run the ball 2/3 of the time if he can. Unless they are trying to go up for , or trade for a QB the Falcons join the Raiders & Panthers for probably being in a bad spot in this draft. If you can't get one of the top 3 QB's , or Jalen Carter or Will Anderson on defense , you have to hope that you can trade back and rebuild your roster. This is the first team that might be looking at drafting Bijan Robinson in the top 10 ,and if they are stuck at # 8 I get it. At least your getting a premium RB for a team that wants to run the ball all the time. Instead I was thinking of the possibility of the Falcons going after Lamar Jackson , but the problem with that is the price . If you sign him off the Ravens franchise tag that comes to 2 first rounds picks ( including #8 this year) , and he wants a ridiculous guaranteed contract even bigger than the stupid one that the Browns gave Deshaun Watson.  Just because the Browns did a stupid desperate thing doesn't mean anyone else should. Add in that Jackson's best ability is running , that he hasn't developed much as a passer over the last 2 years,  that he has ended up hurt to finish last 2 seasons , and you see how dumb that would be. Plus acting as his own agent hurts him. Teams need to be able to negotiate with the agent and say truthful things about a guys deficiencies , and players aren't going to enjoy hearing it from a team that is trying to recruit them. Why would they want to play for someone who doesn't believe he is as good as he thinks he is? Usually a team recruiting you is blowing smoke up your ass , and telling a guy whatever he wants to hear, but not when you are your own agent. Most teams wouldn't even consider changing their entire offensive system to fit Jackson's skill set either, but I think if the cost was less he would fit right in well with Arthur Smith's 2 TE run first philosophy. However, the cost is too much , and the Falcon's still have a ton of needs on the defensive side of the ball after their early splurge in free agency. The Falcons still need more pass rush , and Tyree Wilson has the upside to be a great one. Wilson is a big physical long armed  ( 35 and 5/8 inches) strong bull rushing edge player , who needs to learn the finer points of pass rushing. He has the tools to be a monster if he learns how to use them , but if he could just get off the ball faster that alone could make him very useful as a rookie. Great motor , and he will chase the ball all over the field. Plus since he keeps coming he winds up with more 2nd chance sacks than most. Despite lacking technical hand use , lack of awareness & instincts , being too high too often , and a limited rush repertoire he was productive before his injury. In a class full of tooled out edge rushers Wilson has the highest ceiling , but right now he is just making plays based off athletic ability , and want to.  Had foot surgery in November and couldn't workout yet at the combine or his Pro Day , but won the weigh in at 6"6" , 271 with that massive wingspan. You can see him improving throughout 3 years of tape , but its also clear that his football IQ & instincts are a work in progress. He's too high setting the edge , and doesn't always hold up as well as he should at the point off attack in the run game because of it  but he can also kick inside and hold his ground sometimes. So it's a lack of technical skill , snap anticipation, and playing high that are slowing his progress. After a year getting stronger in NFL weight training program & if he takes to NFL coaching I would bet on him. His ridiculous ceiling and inside & out versatility is so tempting. I think he goes in the top 10 in this weird draft, and I really want to see what he can do once he knows how to use the tools & traits he already has.

9.CHICAGO-(car)- PARIS JOHNSON - T/G - OHIO ST. -6"6' , 313

NFL PLAYER COMP - RUSSELL OKUNG -  retired

The Bears were in the catbird seat this year with the #1  pick  , and a young exciting QB already on the roster coming off a season where he made progress, especially showing off his running ability. Obviously the most expected move was to trade back for a big haul of draft picks , and rebuild a depleted roster with cheap young talented players. This not only gives Fields a better chance to succeed over the next year or 2 before they have to make a decision about a new contract , but if Fields doesn't workout this GM can start over by drafting a new QB in what are ideal circumstances in today's NFL. Those circumstances being a already built to win now roster with a young QB on a inexpensive rookie contract. Possible trade partners in the top 10 included the Texans, Colts, Raiders , Falcons, and Panthers.  I wanted to show as many of the Bears possible choices of what to do with the #1 pick as I could before they made the trade , but now they have already made a deal with the Panthers.  I had already shown them trading down to #4 with the Colts which is one of the 2 best ideas available because it gives them more high picks, and they still would have ended up with either Jalen Carter or Will Anderson. The other was trading down with Houston. Anyway they picked up stud WR DJ Moore , , this 1rst rounder (#9) , a 2nd rounder this year (#61) , the Panthers 2024 1rst rounder, and their 2025 2nd rounder. It's a huge haul , but I would have waited to see what the Colts would have given up closer to the draft. Now they are likely out of the Anderson / Carter sweepstakes.  Plus, the Panthers may still be able to trade back with Houston or Indy if they think their favored QB will still be there at #2 or #4 when all the evaluating is done. That seems unlikely though. However, the deal is done so lets talk about what the Bears will do now. For starters the Bears now have DJ Moore, Darnell Mooney , and Chase Claypool as their top 3 WR'S. That's huge for Fields, and it makes WR a much smaller need. In a league where half the teams were over the salary cap when the Superbowl ended , the Bears had a league leading almost 100 million in cap space, 80 million after absorbing Moore's contract , and they should be big players in free agency for anybody they want who is available. Since the Bears are still at least 2 years away from being a Superbowl contender I would only sign younger free agents who might still be in their prime then. Here is my list of younger players who didn't get the franchise tag that should interest everyone , but particularly the cap flush Bears - RT Mike Mcglincey , CB Jamel Dean , CB James Bradberry , LB Tremaine Edmunds ,  DT Dremont Jones , LB David Long , LB TJ Edwards , T/G Kaleb Mcgary , LB Bobby Okereke ,  guard Dalton Risner , and maybe even DE Marcus Davenport if you think you can keep him healthy. At least 2 or 3 of these guys should be signed by the bears  , and they can start filling the rest of their roster holes in the draft. Plus they don't have a single key free agent of their own that they need to bring back in 2023. The bears started out by making their LB room big time by signing 2 of the guys off my list. With LB's Tremaine Edmunds ( 4 year deal) and TJ Edwards ( 3 year deal ) . The Bears now have 2 young big play making LB's to quarterback the defense , and combined they cost less than the departed Roquan Smith. Add the 2nd rounder they got from The ravens in that deal , and now the Bears GM Ryan Poles is looking like a genius. I especially thought Edwards was a value.  I also thought they over payed for Edmunds , but your betting on his upside because he had never lived up to his draft status until last season. Veteran guard Nate Davis was a surprise , but he is a solid starter. Maybe it means that Cody Whitehair moves back to center , and now that's another hole filled.  The only pass rusher they signed was Demarcus Walker from the Titans , who is still only 28 , and he has transitioned from the edge to being primarily a 3 technique over time. They also lost RB David Montgomery to the Lions, but they still have Khalil Herbert , and brought in power runner D'onta Foreman from Carolina on a low cost one year deal. Another sly addition is backup RB & core special teamer Travis Homer from the Seahawks. Throw in pass catching TE Robert Tonyan from the rival packers on a cheap one year deal to team with Cole Kmet as well. So it's a great start to the league year, and the Bears still have plenty of picks & cap space if they want to trade for another veteran , or sign more players. I'm going O-Line here , and worrying about a edge rusher later in the draft. Paris Johnson can fill one of their big roster holes at right tackle, and even inside at guard if that's where they want to start him. Johnson is a 2 year starter on what I think was the best O-LINE in college football in 2022. Was the the right guard in 2021 and the left tackle in 2022. when he put sit all together on a rep its pretty, but he still mostly gets the job done , despite way too many technical inconsistencies. Plus he has the kind of rare athleticism to recover even when he is initially beat, and speed rushers will rarely be able to beat him around the corner. Has some nasty to him , and if he's uncovered he will go looking for someone to hit. When he puts it all together it looks as pretty as possible. Has the occasional tendency to turn sideways really early in pass pro if he's beat off the snap , or overset and that's risky. Johnson has the highest upside of all the OT's in this draft , with legit left tackle feet , strength , balance & the mean streak you want. Paris has a tall lean muscled long armed frame. Measured in at 6"6" , 313 with elite 36 and 1/8 arm length at the combine , but he needs to learn to use that length more consistently. When he fires his punch inside he can stop you in your tracks , and while his hands placement improved a little throughout the year , its still almost always wide initially.  That wide punch shortens your arms , and I expect a lot more holding penalties in the NFL until he fixes it . When both Foskey & Van Ness got him it was those wide and exposed chest that were the problem . He can move in the run game ,and that's as a puller , making reach blocks , and as a 2nd level guy. Feet get too close together too often so he needs to more consistently widen his base to keep his power as drive blocker, but when he's low he can push you off the ball with ease. He has the athleticism for zone , but he excels in a man/gap scheme right now.  He has improved steadily , and if you watched the Michigan games from 2021 to 2022 you see a MUCH better player. In last years draft he might have been the 4th best OT  , and maybe even the 5th , because I only have a low 1rst round grade on him.  In this draft at OT you can either take the higher floored steady lesser tools & great technique of Peter Skoronski , or the elite tools & traits of Johnson . However, if you take Johnson you know it could take awhile for him to reach his elite ceiling , and you can't know that he ever will. In the long term I would rather have Johnson , especially if you want a tackle , because all his bad techniques are fixable. Since I think the Bears are building for the long term he fits.

10.EAGLES- (NO) - PETE SKORONSKI - T/G - NORTHWESTERN - 6"4" , 313

NFL PLAYER COMP - JORDAN GROSS - retired

The eagles just missed winning another championship in a season where their GM did everything right that he could , and put the best & deepest roster in the NFL together. Now they have a ton of valuable free agents that will be in demand , a QB that deserves a new big contract. Key free agents are DT Javon Hargrave, CC James Bradberry  , center Jason Kelce, LB TJ Edwards, safety Chauncey Gardner Johnson , and RG Isaac Seumalo. Others who played valuable snaps are Edge rushers Graham & Quinn ,  starting LB Kyzir White, Interior D-lineman Fletcher Cox & Ndamukong Suh , and RB's Miles Sanders & Boston Scott. Plus Darius Slay only has one year left on his deal , and is chirping about it already , so the Eagles called his bluff by giving him permission to seek a trade. After reports of them releasing him surfaced the eagles then pulled a about face and gave Slay a 2 year extension.  If its me I resign the much younger Bradberry , and let Slays greedy agent Drew Rosenhaus see how much he can get for me , but Roseman found a way to keep both. The two aging veterans in Brandon Graham & Robert Quinn were probably a lower priority, but I still like Graham a lot.  Apparently the Eagles agree because Graham was brought back on a one year deal. Graham is a career Eagle & he had a much better year in 2022. In fact even though Graham had been in some decline the depth of the Eagles D-Line room allowed him to play less snaps , which led to Graham sacking the QB a career high 11 times last season. The Eagles were already close to 10 million over next seasons cap when the Superbowl ended, so a lot of those free agents shouldn't have been returning.  So lets deal with possible retirees now. While Fletcher Cox is no longer the world beater that he used to be he is still a solid player that gave them valuable snaps in the deepest D-Line rotation in the league.  Cox is currently the least valuable of the trio of potential retirees, but they resigbed him to a hefty one year deal anyway. The other two ( Jason Kelce & Lane Johnson) are still at the top of their games. Kelce has been flirting with retirement for a few years now, but is still a top 3 enter in the NFL, and has unparalleled movement skills from the pivot. At least they eagles drafted a potential replacement in Cam Jurgens in the 2nd round last year, and one would hope he learned a lot from Kelce last season. However , Kelce has committed to coming back for 2023 with the Eagles now. RT Lane Johnson is still the best in the league at his position , and when he played with at torn adductor in the post season he once again showed his toughness & commitment to his team. Johnson hasn't talked retirement , and his contract makes it unlikely this year anyway, but GM Howie Roseman has shown great foresight planning for the future & depth now over the last few seasons. However,  any injuries to the groin area late in your career are potentially long term & career threatening , especially when you are trying to move large powerful athletes against their will with it. Since Johnson is going to be spending a large portion of the off season rehabbing , and who knows how long it will take since he will 33 next year, it would behoove them to draft a potential replacement now juts in case he is slowed in 2023. They gave Johnson a one year contract extension that keeps him in Philly through 2026 if he wants to be , and it also gives the Eagles some cap relief in the short term.  Paris Johnson fits that bill with his past experience at guard , as he could replace RG Isaac Seumalo who is one of the FA's they didn't resign ,and then be the heir apparent to Johnson long term.  However, he is gone in this scenario. Peter Skoronski would be a good fit too. With Jalen Carter gone there is no DT that fits this value either, but they do have younger high end talents in Jordan Davis & Milton Williams ready to take on more snaps ready & waiting already.  Hargrave already signed with their potential NFC Super bowl rival 49ers , and Edwards left for the Bears , but they already have Nakobe Dean ready to step in and fill that spot. Basically Roseman was able to bring back enough of their key FA's to have one of , if not the best roster in the league again in 2023. However they would still be missing one key piece to make their offense unstoppable. That is a great RB,  even though I generally don't believe in taking RB's in the top 10. In this draft which is lacking in many high end sure thing talents, with this player who is élite, and on this team that is ready to win it all now, I could totally see them going for it.  A elite RB is all they really need now, I wouldn't blame them for it either.  Miles Sanders wasn't the answer , and they let him go in free agency anyway. Boston Scoot & Kenneth Gainwell are just complimentary pieces to me. The Eagles committee approach still worked pretty well in 2022, but Bijan Robinson could be the answer to the question of " What do you give a team that already has almost everything?" However , I'm going to give them a offensive lineman here because it fits Howie Roseman's MO. Skoronski can play all 5 O-Line spots. He would allow any team to get their best 5 O-Lineman on the field , and help alleviate another injury breakout up front.  Skoronski is a true technician like Rashawn Slate before him , and although he's not the nasty people mover we all love in the run game that Slater is,  he gets the job done.  Great pass blocking tape period. I believe he can stay outside because his hands are ALWAYS inside,  he times them well , and he can use them independently when needed. Plenty of guys with much longer arms let their hands get wide and it shortens their length. Skoronski's inside hand placement technique adds a few inches to his arm length for me , but some teams will want him at guard only. Great feet & mirror ability in pass pro. If he does move inside I could see him becoming the next Joe Thuney , but I would start him at tackle. Quick off the ball with great initial positioning , and hand placement. Keeps his feet moving , and works to stay engaged throughout the play. You see him getting bigger , stronger , and his technique improving 3 years in a row as a starter on tape. Comes of the ball low and stays low and strong to win the leverage game. Good at combo's , and he gets to the 2nd level quickly , but he his angles & adjustments to smaller players on the move need some work. His arms aren't going to get ang longer at this point , but he can get a little stronger , and develop a more consistent mean streak. However , a guy with his versatility and really high floor would fit in as a starter on any team regardless of scheme. While I love him at tackle if I was going to kick him inside it would be to center where he played in high school. In most drafts I would see him outside the top 15 , but in this draft with so few sure things , I would feel good taking Skoronski in the top 10. If Lane Johnson misses the start of the season Skoronski can be their RT , and then slip inside to guard big Lane is back , while still being the potential long term successor to Johnson. 

11.TITANS - DEVON WITHERSPOON - CB - ILLINOIS - 6 ft. , 181

NFL PLAYER COMP - STEPHON GILMORE - COLTS

While the titans aren't completely rebuilding , which is evidenced by their retention of Ryan Tannehill, they are letting some long term veterans go. LT Taylor Lewan has had 2 big knee injuries in the last 3 years so it wasn't unexpected, but he was a franchise cornerstone before the injuries. Long time stalwart Center Ben Jones was still a good player , but concussions caused the consistent pivot man 2 miss 5 games . If Jones still wants to play he will have plenty of suitors , but multiple concussions when you ae 33 are the type of thing that can make you hang em up. Other vets who the Titans moved on from are WR Robert Woods, overpaid edge Bud Dupree , LB Zach Cunningham . and kicker Randy Bullock. It's possible some of them can be brought back at a lower salary later , and they have over 27 million ui cap space as of March 19th , but its just surprising me. They also didn't keep keep a good starting LB in David Long.  Letting a solid starting guard in Nate Davis sign with the Bears is another loss. Plus asking a stud safety like Kevin Byard to take a pay cut is downright disrespectful when he has played so consistently well. There was even a recent ESPN  report that Titans were looking to trade Derek Henry! The only veteran RB who got a big 2nd contract to actually live up to his deal ,  and even he might be gone! So they let all these good players go , but found the money to sign edge rusher Arden Key after he finally had a decent season as rotational player after years of being a disappointment in Jacksonville. Or how about the 3 years 29 million for former 1rst round draft bust OT Andre Dillard who was never able to secure a starting job in Philly ,  and might be moved to guard now. Counting last years trade of AJ Brown along with the potential losses of Henry , Lewan , and Jones means the 4 best players on the Titans offense on from their 2021 playoff team could be gone. So while it's not a full rebuild , they were one of the teams that called the Bears about moving up to #1 to take a QB. So I guess it's a partial rebuild / re-load season that definitely puts them way behind the Jags in the AFC south. Unless they trade back , and start stocking up picks for next years draft I am just giving them the best player available at a position of need. Maybe incoming GM Ran Carthon's plan will make sense after the draft , but right now it looks inconsistent ,  wishful , and it doesn't fit head coach Mike Vrabel either.  Witherspoon wasn't on my radar before the season , and the first time I watched him I was blown away because he is just so good. It doesn't matter what type of coverage it is man/ zone he can be physical & smooth , but he played a ton of man , and locked it down anyway. So smart that sometimes it literally looks like he knows the play and is running the route better than the receiver , and he explodes to the ball as soon as he sees it , with a ballhawks mentality. When in zone we will guess sometimes trying to make the big play , and taking that cheese should have lead to more big negative plays , but it didn't because he didn't face a lot of good WR'S or QB'S. Uses the sideline as extra defender really well. Can't remember seeing a lean 180 pound corner who is this violent of a hitter, or run defender, and when his speed goes in his late 20's / early 30's I would love to see him add weight and move to safety. Like a magnet because he is stuck to more WR's than anyone else in the draft , but also grabby on the break more than I like , and I expect a lot more flags in the NFL.  He's plays with a Alpha's chip on his shoulder , and he's always chirping the opposition playing head games. Witherspoon has a hamstring injury that has kept him from working out at both the combine & his Pro Day , and I was disappointed he couldn't workout , because I really wonder about his long speed. Plus he hadn't gained any weight , and while he looked a lot like a bully on tape I wonder if he will be able ro hold up against bigger stronger NFL WR's. I loved his tape , but I can't shake the feeling that his level of competition was a big part of why it looked so great. I have a solid first round grade on him ,and he is now my #2 corner in the draft. 

12.TEXANS- (clev) - LUKAS VAN NESS - DE/DT- IOWA - 6"5" , 272

NFL PLAYER COMP -  CAMERON JORDAN - SAINTS

The Texans need pass rush , and Demeco Ryans defense depends on getting a rush with 4 guys most of the time. I think they should trade back in this case and get a edge rusher later , but unless a team wants a QB badly here I feel like they might not get a fair price. Van Ness is a big DE , but the question is do you want to keep moving him around , or predominantly leave him in one spot and see what heights he could reach then. Good bull rusher inside or out , and 3 technique could be where he is most effective in the future , but he was better outside in college. A lot of 3-4 teams will want him as a 5 technique l because he can 2 gap. He weighed in at 272 in Indy , but he plays with the strength of 290-300 pounder , and I would prefer him at 285-290 if you want him inside full time. Great motor , and he will chase down plays all over the field. Iowa doesn't tend to start underclassmen , but he played more snaps than the starter. Strength is his game , but he doesn't know how to use his hands well enough to consistently shed blocks yet. He lacks any other type of pass rush moves or a plan for it. Good get off , but very little bend.  Has the strength & striking power on contact to stand up a OT , and set the edge. His battle with Paris Johnson was a must watch. They got each other enough to make it interesting , but when Van Ness won it was usually with power. Johnson would throw his hands too wide or too late , and leave his chest open allowing Lucas to push him back. At the Combine he was a ripped at 272, and ran a great 4.58 forty with a 1.64 ten yard split. He's still raw , but also only a 21 year old red shirt sophomore so its logical to believe his best football is ahead of him. Lukas is a big bundle of talent with many potential uses. I have a low 1rst round grade on him , but in this draft I doubt he makes it out of the top 15.

13.JETS - BRODERICK JONES - # -G/T -GEORGIA - 6"5" , 311

NFL PLAYER COMP - LA'EL COLLINS - BENGALS

The Jets made great strides towards the playoffs last year, but 2 things prevented them from reaching the Post Season -1.  Inconsistent  , and in some cases ( talking about you Wilson ) downright bad QB play - 2. A injury depleted O-Line. Now they are trying to bring in Aaron Rodgers. Now a properly motivated Rodgers is about as good as it gets, but he comes with many questions. 1 - Will he be properly motivated in New York? I will say yes for at least one season, because he will want to stick it to the Packers for stupidly drafting Jordan Love in the 1rst round of a championship window, when a WR to compliment Davante Adams was probably the missing piece of another Packers Lombardi trophy. I mean he won 2 straight MVP's as soon as they did it. 2 - He will have a young talented group of pass catchers in New York. Personally I would definitely take them over the Packs guys myself , but will he take the time in the off season to work with them so that they don't make so many mistakes and piss him off? 3 - He's pushing forty , and even with injuries the Packers had a better O-Line than the Jets last season. If both teams had healthy O-Line the Packs would still be better. Will they put together a good enough O-Line to satisfy him. 4 - Rodgers doesn't put up with media BS in a small friendly market like Green Bay , and yes Rodgers can be difficult at times, but generally anyone who doesn't kowtow to the media is framed as being difficult. There are times I don't agree with Rodgers either , but the media is also full of people pushing agenda's & making up crap just to get clicks. Rodgers won't lay down and take it, and he is smarter than them , which they hate. So a smart self assured guy who doesn't do or say what the media wants  ,and it seems that he is also on a personal journey of self discovery , which gives them fuel to a paint him however they want. Basically how well will Rodgers deal with the generally hostile completely full of crap media in New York? That might be the kicker. Even if he decides to come there maybe it won't last long , but if Zach Wilson really does learn from him,  that alone could be worth it. I think if the Jets accede to Rodgers wishes, and he spends time with the kids familiarizing themselves with each other in the off season ,  they are definitely a playoff team in 2023. After that who knows? Maybe it's a one or 2 year thing , or he gets sick of New York pronto. Rodgers has nothing to prove to anyone. He is a top 5 ALL TIME QB , with a ring & 4 MVP's. A bunch of envious media hacks who wish they were him could easily push him to just say screw it. That's a lot of 'IF'S" though. The packers are now jerking them around and asking for a 1rst rounder for Rodgers , which is really douchey considering all of the crap the packers GM has put Rodgers through. Their one key free agent is center Conner Mcgovern, and bringing him back should make Rodgers happy , but absorbing the Rodgers contract will keep the jets from being players in free agency. Sheldon Rankins still has value , but I see him as a lesser priority for the Jet, and he got over 10 million from the Texans anyway. They also brought in WR Allen Lazard from Green Bay , which I'm sure pleases Rodgers , but they overpaid him too. Getting a solid starting safety like Chuck Clark from the Ravens in a salary dump for a 7th rounder was a shrewd move. Although trading Elijah Moore to the Browns just to upgrade a 3rd to a 2nd seemed monumentally stupid to me. Speedy WR Mecole Hardman was brought in on a one year 6.5 million deal too , but he hasn't shown much progress over his career , and he missed more games than he played in during the 2022 season. So the jets need interior D-line help , and O-Line help too. Another signing of note is O-Lineman Wes Schweitzer from Washington , and while he can be just a average starter at best , his main value is his versatility. Schweitzer can play all 5 spots up front , and considering the rash of injuries the Jets have suffered along the O-Line over the last 2 years he is a savvy signing. Jones is a thickly rocked up young OT who's best football should be ahead of him. He's strong & athletic , and while he only has 19 starts at left tackle , he was the blindside protector for back to back National Championship games. His technique is raw in many areas , but he has real power on contact , and the feet for the blindside with long enough to stick there. His punch is nasty when it lands right , but right now he tends to throw it outside too often , and he needs to know when to grip instead of re-firing them. His anchor is good once he sits down , but he is too high initially too often , which is odd for a shorter OT.  He's also a leaner with is rare for a shorter OT, and if his technique doesn't improve he could end up at guard , but he has the power to make it inside if necessary. Guys with this kind of mean streak & athleticism don't often come in the same package , and I see him  as a high floor guy because of it. He is a immediate people mover in the run game when he starts out low, but even if he has to readjust after initial contact , his powerful leg drive usually gets defenders going backwards anyway.  He is a hunter on the 2nd level and he will cause business decisions. I think he would have been better off going back to school and working on his technique , but in this draft he might be OT one on some teams boards , so I get the early entry. Both the upside & floor are high , and I have a low 1rst round grade on him , so I expect him to definitely go in the top 20.Since he can play LT in the event that Becton is hurt AGAIN I am giving him to the Jets here. 

***TRADE***The RAVENS trade their 1rst (#22) and 3rd (#86) ROUNDERS in this draft and a 2nd rounder in 2024 to the PATRIOTS for their 1rst (#14) ROUNDER ***TRADE***

14.RAVENS-(ne) - HENDON HOOKER - ** - QB - TENNESEE

NFL PLAYER COMP - JALEN HURTS - EAGLES

The Ravens front office is top 2 in the NFL for me, and only the Eagles are in their class for team building , cap management , and draft manipulation. Slapping the non exclusive tag on Lamar Jackson is a stroke of genius to me. They pay him less this season, give Jackson a chance to learn he isn't as valuable as he thinks, and if some team wants to sign him they would get 2 first rounders for him. I wouldn't give a 5 year guaranteed 230 million contract to any player, even Mahomes, and Jackson is not in his class. He hasn't progressed much as a passer in 5 years , and the best thing about him is his elite running ability , which increases his chance of injury. Since Jackson has missed 5 games in each of the last 2 years, hasn't finished the last 2 seasons healthy, and he was even unable to play in the playoffs this year I think the Ravens are just being smart again. Most teams wouldn't even consider changing their entire offensive system to fit Jackson's skill set either, but Baltimore did , and I don't think Jackson realizes how inaccurate he can be outside the numbers. Jackson's insistence on being his own agent isn't helping him either. Teams need to be able to tell an agent the truth about their players negatives, and Jackson is not going to want to hear it. Plus a real agent would have handled this whole thing better , and he would at least would have had offers to sift through by  March 15th. The Ravens changed their entire offense to suit him , but he doesn't seem to appreciate it , and now wants to be paid what Cleveland foolishly gave Deshaun Watson. Baltimore isn't Cleveland, and this team isn't desperate like the Browns. Plus the Ravens rarely overpay anybody, but Jackson doesn't seem to understand that. So I think in the end he only has 5 choices. 1- Come to his senses and take a good deal from the Ravens. 2- Play one year on franchise tag , and then start this whole thing over again.3- Play 2 years on the franchise tag and then be a unrestricted free agent. 4- Get traded by the Ravens. 5- (And the least likely) sign a big deal with some poorly run franchise like Washington , and play for a lesser team that doesn't have a 1rst round pick for 2 years. The ravens key free agents and cuts are all 30 or over. DT/DE Calais Campbell , CB Marcus Peters , and edge rusher Justin Houston could all be back at lesser prices, but if Jackson does leave maybe 2022 is a rebuilding season. Although Campbell signed with the Falcons so that's one down. Since its the Ravens it would probably be more of a reloading season , because I think they would still be somewhat competitive anyway. Although they did do something i would deem UN-Raven like when they signed OBJ to a guaranteed 15 million one year deal. I would not expected Baltimore to sign a past his prime, over 30 , injury prone WR coming off a major injury that caused him to miss the entire 2022 season. So go figure , but maybe it's just throwing a bone to Lamar? Other than possibly QB , and if Will Levis or Anthony Richardson fell this far I think they would take either , the ravens main needs are WR, CB , and edge rusher. The Ravens don't have cap space either. They let starting guard Ben Powers leave to Denver in free agency , but I thought he was overrated , and that the Broncos overpaid for him too. So unless somebody signs away Jackson they will have pretty much fill most of their needs in the draft. I actually believe they are hoping somebody does sign Jackson so they can either trade up for a QB now,  or next year , while building up the rest of the roster with the cap space Jackson's loss would gain them. Whether Jackson signs the tag , hold out , or gets traded , getting a young QB now would be smart. It would give them leverage , and protection for the future in case this saga drags on for another year. With the other consensus top3 QB's off the board I am giving them a guy I have a 2nd round grade on ,because QB's tend to go a round higher , and multiple guys in big draft media are now already talking about Hooker going in the first anyway now. Not many players become 2 year starters for 2 different teams in 2 different power 5 conferences, but Hooker did it.  After 2 years at VA. Tech in the ACC he transferred to Tennesee in the SEC.  Hooker is Mobile , has a good arm ,big frame , quick feet , a tight release ,  and very few picks at either school. A lot of fumbles though , especially for a 6th year Senior who didn't become a NFL prospect until his breakout 2021 season after a transfer in from VA Tech. He has big hands so that's not the source of the fumbling problem, and his pocket awareness looks good to me. So I think it's from holding onto the ball too long sometimes , but it's weird because he excels in a timing based offense. Not only did he lead the charge to make Tennessee relevant as a playoff contender , but also led to their first victory over Alabama in 17 years. That's the year before Nick Saban became the head coach! Is he just a system QB? Maybe , but I doubt it. Although his shotgun , play action heavy , wide split , receivers spread & stacked offense that causes wide open targets certainly helps . It doesn't look very translatable to the NFL to me, and he needs to show he can make full field reads, and throw more over the middle to the intermediate level of the field, but Hooker makes the most of it. He's also a good runner who is proficient in the RPO game , but he needs to be better at keeping his eyes downfield when scrambling , and not take off running too early at times.  Solid accuracy everywhere. He is tough too , both as a runner and in taking a hit. His accuracy on deep balls is pretty good as well, and even when he overthrows it ( 2 in the Georgia game alone) it makes the defense keep those safeties deep. Reportedly a great guy too, but he will also be a 25 year old rookie. However a guy with these tools , character , intangibles , and production in the SEC is rare. Before his knee injury I would have taken him in the late 1rst and sat him a year. Since Hooker sadly tore his ACL in week 11 this year it changes his draft projection some. ,If I were a GM for a team with a veteran starter past his prime I would like Hooker enough to take him in the mid to late 2nd round , and give him a shot to be the new starter in his 2nd year. If Hooker is healing & learning the offense as a rookie in this type of low pressure environment he could become a winning lottery ticket in the long run. At that spot in the draft I would make that bet , but at this point I think it's more likely he goes in the first round. Given the choice of taking a Will Levis or Anthony Richardson in the top 5 , or taking Hooker in the mid to late 1rst I would take the latter option. 

15.PACKERS - NOLAN SMITH - ** - OLB/DE - GEORGIA - 6"2" , 238

NFL PLAYER COMP - HAASON REDDICK - EAGLES

It looks like the Aaron Rodgers / packers divorce is finally here , and I think it's mostly the Packers fault. If they hadn't drafted Jordan love, and had instead gotten another WR to compliment Davante Adams their is a good chance that the Pack would have another Lombardi trophy. The pack don't have any FA's I would call key, and they don't have the cap space to do much until Rodgers is gone.  They have already lost 3 starters from last season in free agency in DT Jarren Reed , TE Robert Tonyan , and WR Allen Lazard. Yet they haven't signed anyone to fill those spots, and I guess that's OK if you are rebuilding anyway , but don't you want to give your new QB a chance to succeed enough to decide if you want to keep him? QB Jordan Love may only be the guy for this one season , but I would like them to at least try to give him a better chance to succeed. Maybe they draft  a TE & WR with their first 2 picks to help him.  It would be hilarious if they drafted a 1rst round WR now after Rodgers is gone , and GM Brian Gutekunst is already trying to stick it to Rodgers by asking for too much from the Jets in the trade for the QB. Maybe he really wants to twist the knife by finally taking a 1rst round WR after Rodgers has left the building.  However , I am going to give them a pass rusher here instead. Smith is lightning explosive off the edge with rare first step quickness. Very strong for his lack of size , and you see him stand up some much bigger players on tape, but he can still get pushed around some in the run game from time to time in college. Either way he fights and makes a lot plays against the run in the SEC. Ideally fits as 3-4 OLB, because I don't think his frame can take much more weight without losing what makes him special , and I think he would have trouble on run downs as a 4-3 end in the NFL. He has the athleticism to try him some at off the ball LB , but I think it would be a waste. Knows his assignment and doesn't go off script very often. Knows how to use his hands well, but just has average length. His play really ramped up this year on tape so the torn chest could make him a huge value late in round one if the doctors think he will be ready to play by training camp.  Great get off with the burst & bend to run the arc , and put blockers in immediate jeopardy. So while Nolan has elite speed rushing potential ,he also needs more moves, counters, and a power element to his plan. He will just be seen as a designated pass rusher , but some teams, and since he is inured & lacks scheme diversity I don't have any idea where he will go in this draft. I gave him a solid 1rst round grade , but whether he goes in the top 12 or at the bottom of the first is a mystery to me.

16.WASHINGTON - JOEY PORTER JR. - CB - PENN ST. - 6"3" . 193

NFL PLAYER COMP - CHRIS MCALISTER - retired

Washington is in a sort of limbo until Daniel Snyder sells the team. The new owner may not like whatever they do now, and if I was free agent it wouldn't be a place I would prioritize. They first franchise tagged Duron Payne, and then signed him to new big deal, but I am not sure if that will make potential owners happy or not. Personally I think Payne is overrated , and that they should have tried to trade him  once they applied the tag. Plus he dodged a bullet when Frank Ragnow was hurt for week 2 because I saw Ragnow ragdoll him twice in college. A Nose Tackle should be able to hold his ground better. The plan has publicly been to give last years 5th rounder Sam Howell a shot to be the QB, and I like it personally. I had him in the 2nd on my board last year, and he looked pretty good beating Dallas at the end of the year. Unless they trade up I doubt this pick is a QB, but if anyone was dumb enough to sign Lamar Jackson to a huge guaranteed 5 year contract my bet would have been on Daniel Snyder. It would cost them 2 first rounders including this one, and make the team less in demand to the smarter potential owners. That alone may be reason for Snyder to sign Jackson , because he doesn't want to sell anyway. There is no free agent on their current roster I would call key. This team needs help at corner, along the O-Line, TE, and at off the ball LB. Resigning guard Nick Gates , and over paying former Chief Andrew Wylie does nothing to excite me. In fact the Wylie deal seems stupid unless you are going to try him at guard , because at best he is a low end starting RT. QB Jacoby Brissett is a smart solid veteran backup QB with a lot of starting experience so I like the signing , and feel he can be a good mentor for Howell. Corner , interior O-Line , and tight end are their main needs. Porter is the son & namesake of the former Steelers ALL Pro edge rusher. He is one of the best pure press man corners in this draft , but another guy that could be too grabby and physical for the Pro game. Although I thought the same thing about JC Horn & Sauce Gardner and they both keep getting away with it , so maybe Porter will too. He is at his best when he is right in your face at the line of scrimmage , and he has elite length & strong hands he uses well to keep receivers from getting into the pattern. He is willing enough in run support & as a tackler , but I expected him to be better at it , and was surprised he wasn't a big hitter considering who his father is. He is not a great mirror & match guy who can stick to his man with feet & quickness. He will fight for every ball he can get his hands in coverage, and his length makes it hard to get the ball over the top of him. Porter also lacks makeup speed in coverage , and will need some help over the top if he get stacked off the ball, and he will struggle some if you have him play off. I still like him a lot , but he does have limitations. If he goes to the right scheme he can be a plug and play starter. 

17.STEELERS - DARNELL  WRIGHT - T /G- TENNESSEE - 6"5" , 333

NFL PLAYER COMP - TAYLOR MOTON - PANTHERS

Once again Mike Tomlin was able to keep this team in the positive with a winning record, which I think should have made him coach of the year again. The Steelers don't have any free agents I would term as key , but CB Cameron Sutton & DT Larry Ogunjobi did play a lot of snaps last year. Sutton signed with Detroit , but Ogunjobi was brought back on day one of free agency. DT Chris Wormely also plays the run well inside as a rotational guy, and he is still unsigned at the moment. They did sign future HOFer Patrick Peterson to replace Sutton at corner, and though he is past his prime, he is coming off a resurgent season with the Vikings. G/C Isaac Seumalo probably keeps them from drafting a guard , because they actually have depth on the interior O-Line with Seumalo , Kevin Dotson , James Daniels , and Mason Cole.  Also, they got Allen Robinson for a 7th from the Rams and only have to pay about a 3rd of his salary . While the Steelers also have needs at interior D-Line  & CB I believe their biggest needs are at OT. While they have publicly claimed that their OT's are solid I don't buy it, and I would take Broderick Jones or Darnell Wright in this spot , and Wright is the one left. Wright is a huge RT prospect who more than held his own against Will Anderson in the Bama game, but he did get some help occasionally. Wright mostly just waited for Anderson to come to him, caught him anchored down , and controlled him. Although Anderson would have done a better job if had used his quickness more , and stopped trying to go through him.  Plus Wright got away with wide hands & punches on initial contact a lot before readjusting his hands and locking him out. To me Wright is a RT , but has played some games at RG in the past , and he played left tackle in 2021.  His 2022 RT tape is his best though , because I saw him as either a day 3 RT , or that he should move to guard after watching his LT tape in 2021. His pass sets are inconsistent , but I think it works for him because it throws off rushers.  Going from a normal quick step ,  to a jump step outside , to a deep set at different times seems to keep rushers from finding a pattern. I believe it disrupts their pass rush plan.   Personally I wish that Wright would mix in more short sets where he could use his serious power for knockbacks , because when he throws his hands inside they are powerful enough to send a guy reeling off course. Darnell does tend to rise a little too much the longer he is pass blocking , and stouter NFL bull rushers will test that anchor. He can be a physical finisher , especially in the run game , but he is not a consistent mauler type. Too content to just wall off & seal guys on runs away from him. He tends to rise when going straight ahead at both the first & second level. , and then gets stood up too much on initial contact , but he will readjust and then start pushing his man back after the adjustment. Quick puller for a big guy and he's gonna hit somebody when he gets there.  The one place where he really moves people is as a run blocker down inside . There he stays low , delivers a blow , and can collapse the line of scrimmage sideways. Good day one at the Senior Bowl and he showed  off his physicality & stout anchor. However, Will Mcdonald got him twice in a row, one inside & one outside in the ,1 vs 1 pass blocking drills, which is what Anderson should have done more when they played. He has been steadily rising up draft boards since the season ended , and he appears to be doing everything right during the process . He went from 342 at the Senior Bowl down to 333 at the combine. Then he moved very well in the forty with a 5.01 at that weight,  and on field drills. I think he would be low first rounder in most drafts ,and I gave him a low 1rst round grade, but in this draft he could easily go top 20. So don't be surprised if he goes ahead of one of the other 3 OT's that are usually ranked ahead of him ,because he does have a good floor. 

18.LIONS - BIJAN ROBINSON - RB - TEXAS - 5"11" , 215

NFL PLAYER COMP - EDGERRIN JAMES - retired

The lions regularly used 3 RB's last season, and D'Andre Swift's health is always a question, So I am giving them a elite RB prospect. This team wants to run the ball a lot , and most of their better passing plays come off play action as well. Plus Swift is a free agent after this season.  Since Texas runs the ball in so many different ways you can see every type of blocking scheme on his tape. Most top shelf RB'S are good at breaking tackles or making you miss , but Robinson is proficient at both. Great make you miss , burst ,great feet , patience,  vision , elite balance, a jump cut ,  and he breaks a TON of tackles. Knows how to use his stiff arm to keep would be tacklers at bay too. A weapon as a receiver , and he runs routes like a wideout , but I need more in pass pro. In fact he is so good as a receiver that you can have him on the field with another RB at the same time , and cause the defense to have to account for all the possibilities that entails. You could even make him your regular #3 wideout when he isn't in the backfield. So even if never gets better at pass protection , and I believe he will or I wouldn't have given him the great comp I did , his receiving skills would still make him useful on passing plays. Not only would his running skills give them a huge boost , but his receiving ability would be welcomed. Plus you wouldn't have to rely as much on Montgomery & Swift 's health with a back like Bijan in the fold. He could close out your games , and put the nail in the coffin of opposing defenses. 

19.TAMPA BAY - BRYAN BRANCH - S/CB - ALABAMA - 6 ft. , 190

NFL PLAYER COMP - MINKAH FITZPATRICK - STEELERS

The G.O.A.T is gone , and without Tom Brady the Bucs are at a crossroads. We don't even know what type of offense their new OC is going to run , because he has never had this job before. Who wins  the starting QB job?  The slow footed young pocket guy in Kyle Trask , or Baker Mayfield? Do you draft another young QB high to compete with them , or do you even trade up to try to get one of the top 4 consensus QB'S in this draft? The NFC South is wide open , but they are taking some big cap hits now from Brady & the Donovan Smith release.  If you decide to rebuild what about veteran franchise Icons like Mike Evans or Chris Godwin? Do you trade them to a contender for picks, because if you are rebuilding that would be the smart move. Then there are other older vets that are still under contract for next season who  Ryan Jensen & Shaq Mason who will be less viable in 2 or 3 years when you are competitive again. It would be smart to trade both for picks too so you can speed up your rebuild , and since they already traded Mason away for a cheap late round pick swap , dump Jensen as well. If I'm going to rebuild I stick with Trask & Mayfield at QB for this year , and unless a QB I love falls into my lap at # 19 I might even trade back in this substandard draft. Next years draft looks better as a whole  , and right now I like the top 2 QB'S ( Caleb Williams & Drake Maye ) in it even more than my # 1 QB this year (Bryce Young ) , who the Bucs have no chance at this year anyway.  If you take all your cap hits , rebuild , and go young this season you may end up up at the top of the 2024 draft and have your pick of the QB'S. If you are rebuilding & going with a youth movement you shouldn't have resign any of your veteran free agents ,but they brought back franchise Icon  Lavonte David for 7 million. The only free agent they should have even considered paying big money too is 26 year old CB Jamel Dean , but the Bucs were 59 million over the cap when the season ended . They found a way to resign Dean anyway. Plus they brought in interior D-Lineman Greg Gaines from the Rams.  They also let RB Leonard Fournette & TE Cameron Brate go. So it's a odd mix of rebuilding , but trying to stay competitive in a bad division so far. Especially when one of the young guys they want to keep ( LB Devon White) has already requested a trade,  Although they could make more trades after the draft , because then they will have a better idea of what kind of surplus they have. This team has needs everywhere but at WR , CB , and tight end. So best player available makes a lot of sense if they stay at #19 , but I believe they will open for business to trade back and gather picks to speed up the rebuild. Bryan Branch can be their slot corner and pitch in at safety when needed. I don't think he should have fell this far anyway. Branch is a big slot box safety that covered whoever they threw at him. Literally covered all shapes , sizes , & skill sets out of the slot , and did it well. High football IQ with great route recognition. Everything about him looks polished and in phase. Also, the best tackling DB that I have seen in years. I loved his tape , and was hoping his measureables & workout numbers would justify my belief that he could also play as a deep safety if necessary. He spends most of his time in the box , but you see him covering people laterally well, and turning and running with receivers down the field pretty well too.  I wasn't expecting a burner at the combine , and I would have been able to be comfortable with a high 4.4 to low 4.5 , but I also thought he would be taller & longer , although he is very strong for his size. However ,  a 4.58 forty at 6 ft, 190 and arms under 31 inches makes it less likely he even gets the chance to show he can play deep more.  It also makes me drop him down a little , but I still love this player.  He is so smart , and plays with such great balance. So while he isn't the tooled up traits guy every team wants his brain is going to put him in the right position before most of those guys ever get there. In my opinion Branch has the highest floor of every DB in this draft , and while may never lead the league in picks , he will get to the ball and limit the opposing receivers better than most. Best slot corner in the draft , and there a lot of good ones this year. Steal.

20.SEATTLE - JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA - WR - OHIO ST. - 6"1"  196

NFL PLAYER COMP -   AMON RA ST. BROWN - LIONS

ILB Jordan Brooks had ACL repair surgery during the divisional round of the playoffs , and could miss all of 2023 , so I considered giving them a off the ball LB earlier , but then they brought back stud Bobby Wagner. So I'm guessing Pete Carroll is looking for a interior O-Lineman , or a WR. The other likely possibility is a edge rusher. I'm not sure how many of us already realize just how elite aWR core that Ohio ST. had in 2021. Not just 2 two first round ( Garrett Wilson & Chris Olave) WR's , but those 2 were also the 10th & 11th overall players drafted, and the12th overall pick (Jameson Williams) transferred away from Ohio ST. to Bama before the season. However, I'm also not sure everyone realizes that neither led the Buckeyes in receptions (95)  or receiving  (1606) yards in 2021 , because that honor belonged to Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Now Jaxon was the primary slot guy, and he did play in 2 more games than Wilson & Olave did, but none of that takes away from how great he played.  Yes, it's easier to get open & get targets from the slot , but those are fantastic numbers from anywhere.  A lot of us already know how Jaxon & Marvin Harrison JR. went off in Ohio States bowl game when Wilson & Olave sat out, but it was more a fulfillment of what he can do as the unchallenged main guy, than just a continuation of a already great season.  Jaxon set Buckeye single game records in that 2022 Rose Bowl with 15 catches &  347 yards receiving , and 3 TD's tossed in for good measure. Plus he had a fumble heading into the end zone in the game, or he would have had another long TD. So when he is the absolute primary focus of the passing game he puts up giant numbers. You want more proof?  When Garret Wilson missed the 2021 Nebraska game Jaxson had another 15 catches, 240 yards receiving & a TD in a game Olave played in. So in the 2 games Garrett Wilson missed Smith-Njigba had 30 catches, 587 yards receiving, and 4 TD's. With Jaxson already having a great rapport with QB CJ Stroud, and Wilson & Olave out of the picture,  I thought 2022 could be a record breaking season numbers wise. That didn't mean that Jaxson was guaranteed to be a top 10 pick, or even the first WR drafted in 2023 , but it's a great start.  What I wanted to see from him this year is more snaps & production playing outside. These days teams move their WR's around, and yes teams put there #1 guy in the slot plenty, but he needed to prove he could do it outside to definitively claim the top spot in this WR class. He has average size  , but he is a great route runner , who understands the subtle nuances of the position. Plus he has great hands , and wins against man or zone , and is willing to go over the middle.  Has some serious elusiveness, and change of direction & vision in open space. Between his shifty route running & their scheme he gets wide open a lot, and he runs to daylight , or gets right up the field quickly after the catch. Runs through a lot of arms tackle attempts. Even though he had multiple long TD's in 2021, I would say he just has OK long speed, because he was caught from behind more than once. Uses a strong stiff arm behind him to keep running & extend the play when caught. Initially lined up in the backfield often near the end of the season for swing passes & screens, and the occasional short hot potato pass that is really a handoff that counts as a catch. Good adjustments to the ball on a over the shoulder catch for a few long TD's, even though the CB was clearly holding him both times. Jaxson had the highest floor of any draftable WR coming into this season , and I had him going somewhere in the 1rst round , even as a slot only guy. However, a chronic reoccurring hamstring injury ruined his season , and he was only able to play in parts of 3 scattered games.   There are so many players who end up with chronic hamstring injuries that I feared it could be a problem going forward , and I needed to see him looking like his old self before I put him back in the the first.  Didn't run the forty at the combine , and said he was still working up to it after missing so much training time, but his 3.93 short shuttle & 6.57 three cone were both tops among the WR's in Indy. He is my number one WR in this draft now that he's healthy , and combining Jaxson with Lockett & Metcalf would give Geno a great chance at success. 

MIAMI - Pick FORFEITED for TAMPERING

21.CHARGERS - JALIN HYATT - WR - TENNESEE - 6 ft. , 196

NFL PLAYER COMP - MIKE QUICK - retired

In my opinion the Spanos family has kept the chargers from winning a championship for a long time. Now that they are in LA and spending money again I do have some hope for the future , especially with Justin Herbert at QB. Bringing in Kellen Moore should help the offense move forward , but hopefully he has realized that he does get a bit too predictable at times. With a healthy Rashawn Slater back at LT , and his draft steal of a replacement Jamaree Salyer kicking inside to guard the O-Line could be one of the best in the league this year too. However, since they are screwing a stud RB like Austin Ekeler out of a contract extension  , and have given him permission to seek a trade I once again blame the Spanos family. Ekeler is dual threat back who has led the NFL in TD's back to back the last 2 seasons, and he deserves to be paid. So RB could be a need as well now , because even though they drafted josh Kelly & Isaiah Spiller in the 3rd round of each of the last 2 drafts , neither has become the steady partner Ekeler needs in the backfield yet.  They don't have any players I would call a key free agent that really needs to be brought back either.  Off the ball LB was a need , but they signed Eric Kendricks to a 2 year deal after the Vikings cut him in a salary cap move. The Chargers other main needs are interior D-line ,tight end, and a speedy WR. With their top 3 WR's Keenan Allen , Mike Williams, and Josh Palmer all being big long striding types, their offense takes a longer time to develop than they need , and a faster  WR who can pull safeties with him would open all sorts of possibilities. Allen & TE Gerald Everett would have a lot of room underneath, and Ekeler too if they pull their heads out of their asses and bring him back. Williams & Palmer would be seeing a lot more single coverage outside, and Hyatt himself could take advantage of Herbert's big arm on deep balls. Hyatt was a speedy Slot receiver with the ability to stretch the field from anywhere in college. They motioned and schemed him open all day. Caught 5 TD's in their upset of Bama , and 3 of them were deep balls. I have heard him compared him to Will Fuller by multiple people in the media. However, unlike Fuller , Hyatt can catch .  Nor is Hyatt as polished , or as complete a WR that Fuller was coming into the NFL. He played in a offense that doesn't translate well to the NFL. So he needs to learn how to run intermediate routes & show that he can beat press coverage. Unlike a lot of smaller speedsters this guy has good hands , and finds & adjusts to the ball well down the field. Its just that when almost every pass he catches is underneath ( slant, bubble or tunnel screen ) or a deep ball it makes you wonder. Now it could just be that is the offense he plays in , and his place in it, but I did see Cedrick Tillman run some of the routes missing on Hyatt's tape. I like Jalin as a slot /Z receiver who could threaten safeties all day , and he could especially be a huge weapon for a big armed QB.  His 4.4 forty and 1.50 ten yard split at the combine were excellent , but I was expecting at least a low 4.3 after watching his tape. So I believe he is just faster in pads when the adrenaline is flowing because in games he ran right by a couple of guys who timed faster than him at the combine , and he keeps pulling away late when he is going to get the deep ball. He's a bit of a one year wonder , but that year won him the Biletnikoff award as the top WR in college football. Hyatt could open up this entire offense , and give them another guy that DC's have to game plan for. It's a bit of a reach for me , but he fits exactly what this team needs.

22.PATRIOTS-(balt)-DARNELL WASHINGTON- TE -GEORGIA- 6"7" , 264

NFL PLAYER COMP - MARTELLUS BENNETT - retired

The Patriots are behind the 8 ball in my estimation. Post Brady they are no longer a free agent destination , and since they rarely pay even market value that makes it even worse for bringing in players. Then longtime patriot , and future HOFer Devin McCourty has retired. In addition long time versatile LB/pasdsrusher Dont'a Hightower also hung em up too. Everyone else in their division has been making big moves over the last 2 years, and the pats just lost their best WR to the Raiders. The Jets are going after Aaron Rodgers. The Dolphins just brought in Jalen Ramsey a year after bringing in Tyreek Hill. The Bills brought in Von Miller last off season, and the biggest move the Pats have made was Bringing in Bill O'brien to be their OC. While I like the O-Brien move , and think he has a much better chance of getting the most out of Mac Jones , that means the Pats are building through the draft. Since their front office has been gutted over the last decade plus by so many teams wanting Patriots guys running the show, and they only built well through the draft when they had mass picks that is a problem now. The patriots are no longer having their former players in demand through trade or free agency, so even their comp pick channel has dried up a lot. Belichick is a great coach , but he has missed on way too may high picks throughout his time in charge, and now those misses are compounded by having less draft capitol available. Plus most of today's players are entitled & whiny , and they don't want a hard nosed old school coach who tells them the truth to their faces.  Their only other key free agent besides Myers was CB Jonathan Jones, and at least they brought him back, but they have a lot of holes on the roster. They need at least 2 starting O-Lineman, a real #1 WR , a off the ball LB , and a free safety. JUJU doesn't count as even a #2 WR to me. He's a slot only guy who couldn't crack a 1,000 yards or score more than 3 TDs with Mahomes feeding him the ball, and you think he will be better with Mac Jones? I suggest taking a OT, or trading back and getting more picks , and with this roster the need for more picks won out. Since I believe they are the 4th place team in their division at the moment , and that the hoodie will be grinding his teeth in frustration I am suggesting a return to a offensive system that the Pats made cool again back when O'brien was with the team. The pats already want to run the ball a lot, but the 2 TE offense needs a better blocker at one of those starting TE spots. Hunter Henry & Mike Gesicki are solid receivers, but neither is even a average run blocker. First off this massive TE has plays where he's running with the ball , and defenders are bouncing off him like Bo Jackson in Super Tecmo Bowl. A lot of times a bigger TE who is a good blocker mistakenly gets the 6th O-Lineman label, but in this case it's legit. I believe if Washington wanted to gain 30-40 pounds he would be a good starting OT in the NFL, and the last guy I thought that about was Martellus Bennett. Unlike Bennet , Washington doesn't have any of the same maturity and character issues hanging over him.  Often when you see NFL teams having a TE block a edge rusher one on one there are a lot of bad results, but I would trust Washington to do it more than almost any other TE currently in the NFL, which is funny because he doesn't even have consistent technique as a blocker yet. Also , he still struggles to stay engaged inline at times ,but he is a down the field already. Now unfortunately he played in a run first offense where there was a even better receiving TE in Brock Bowers, but that doesn't mean Washington isn't a good receiver. I believe this guy could be a weapon catching the ball if he just went to a team that targeted him more , because when they threw it to him at Georgia he averaged a mind blowing 16.2 yards per catch . You wanna talk about business decisions being made by DB's being afraid to tackle him, but this guy will run over LB's, and pump up the team & crowd with his physical dominance. He's very athletic , a unique chess piece, and I would take him in the first round of this draft. Washington is also raw as a route runner, but he could be  a game changer right away if you just had him run the basic TE routes. Options, slants, hitches, waggles, sticks, comebacks , mesh, and just coming off a block. You think a DB fears running into Tyler Higbee's pick? Try running mesh with this guy , and it would be hilarious! If Baltimore wasn't already swimming in TE's I would expect them to snatch him up in the 1rst round. So teams that really want to run ball like Atlanta, Carolina, Tennessee , New England, Green bay, Detroit , Seattle , and Dallas with McCarthy is calling the plays should all be in on this guy in the 2nd half of the first round. If you really think about every one of these teams needs at least a #2 or #3 WR. You can make the case that New England , Chicago, and Tennessee don't even have a number one WR. So if am any of those teams I would really be thinking about drafting this guy starting in the middle of the first round, or even Darnell Washington, and running a lot more 2 TE sets. It actually makes a lot of sense to me, especially with this subpar WR class in the draft. Your QB's & even your RB's would thank you for it. On a team like the Patriots who wants to run the ball, and uses the TE as a receiver this guy could go bonkers right away. 

23.VIKINGS- JORDAN ADDISON - WR - USC- 5"11" , 173

NFL PLAYER COMP -  DEVONTA SMITH - EAGLES

With Brian Flores taking over at DC the Vikings are planning to stick with a base 3-4 , but I expect a lot more man coverage & blitzes compared to the mostly off zone defense they ran last year.  They are getting rid of a lot of key older players this off season. Long term studs like Eric Kendricks ,and Adam Theilen will be missed. They were all cut for cap space  but st least they didn't dump Harrison Smith too.  Patrick Peterson was let go as well, and he was coming off a good season. Peterson is now a Steeler and Kendricks is a Charger so those two are gone for good. Going younger isn't a complete rebuild ,but why they want to get rid of good players coming off a 13 win season where they won the NFC North is a mystery to me. If they are going young I don't know why they put a 24 year old starting corner like Camron Dantzler on waivers , but he was quickly claimed by Washington.  They also lost 26 year old corner to the Raiders in free agency after he played well for them in the final 3rd of the season. CB Chandon Sullivan was just OK last season , but he was their healthiest corner, and he is also free agent. They did sign CB Byron Murphy away from the Cardinals , but he has always been best in zone , so I don't see how he fits a Brian Flores defense.  They even restructured Kirk Cousins deal to get under the cap , and that just pushes that debt forward into the future. They also lost NT Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency to the Browns. They somehow found the money to sign edge rusher Marcus Davenport to a 1 year 13 million dollar deal, and brought in backup TE Josh Oliver for way too much money too. They also resigned center Garret Bradbury , who had been a big enough first round bust that they didn't pick up his 5th year option, before finally having a solid season in 2022. At least they paid a reasonable price paid fir him. Unless they trade Dalvin Cook , or get him to take a pay cut they are going to be out of cap space now.  Although stud edge rusher Zadarius Smith is making noise about wanting out, but I wouldn't trade the best player on their defense if I was the Vikings. So basically its a weird mix, but corner & WR are their clear cut #1 needs now. Although they are low on draft picks , and a trade back would make plenty of sense. I am going to go WR here because it's a high floor. Addison was Kenny Pickett's number one guy, and the 2021 Biletnikoff Award winner , but he transferred to USC after Pickett went to the NFL. A great route runner with nifty feet , and he explodes out of his breaks. Can play all 3 WR spots, and he beats man coverage despite being a slim WR , but probably mostly a slot & Z in the pros. He runs a full route tree , and makes plays all over the field.  More drops than most 1rst round WR's in 2021 , but showed better hands in 2022 , but also got less targets. Has the top end quicks & just enough long speed to make plays at all 3 levels of the field.  Plus enough wiggle to get some YAC after the catch. Slim build will hurt him against better press corners , and he won't win a lot of contested catches. Can also return punts. When your are a WR that QB's love , because you make them better , you will always have value. Addison did it with 2 different QB's in 2 different systems. He won't have the ceiling of many of the other top WR'S in this draft because of his lack of even average height & bulk, but his versatility & polish give him one of the highest floors in a draft that is lacking a lot of sure things. His running & jumping numbers at the combine were just OK , and that's after measuring smaller than expected. That was disappointing to me , and then he didn't finish his workout due to back tightness. I still see him as a starting NFL WR so he could easily be a value in the 2nd round now , but I think a guy this versatile & polished won't fall too far. 

24.JAGUARS - DEONTE BANKS - CB - MARYLAND - 6 ft. , 197

NFL PLAYER COMP - MARLON  HUMPHREY - RAVENS

The Jags ditched never should have been hired Urban Meyer for never should have been fired Doug Pederson, and had a quick turnaround in 2022 which culminated in a playoff berth. While I felt they spent too much money on certain players it looks like for the most part they were right and I was wrong in year one of the new Jags. However, since Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie & GM Roseman have a penchant for hiring good coaches most of the time the eagles ended up in the Superbowl anyway, and Doug Pederson came back after a year off to lead the Jags to a AFC South division title. In a season full of great comebacks the Jags did it again in round one to the Chargers, but lost to the eventual Superbowl champion Chiefs in the Divisional round. The Jags are going from a last place schedule to a 1rst place one in 2023 , but they are still the odds on favorite to capture their division title again. Plus they will have Calvin Ridley to join Christian Kirk & Zay Jones at wideout. Some possible key free agents entering the new league year were RT Jawaan Taylor , DT Roy Robertson-Harris , edge rushers Arden Key & Dawuane Smoot , and TE Evan Engram. They already resigned Robertson-Harris , and threw the franchise tag on Engram , but the rest were up for grabs. Taylor had a good season as a pass blocker , and he is young enough to hope that his run blocking could still improve , but I didn't expect the Chiefs ( or anyone) to give him  80 million over 4 years. The Jags do have recent 2nd round pick Walker Little on the roster to take over at RT , and he played alright in the 5 games he started last season, including the 2 playoff games. Odds were one the edges would be brought back, but it is a deep edge class this year , and the Jags are way over the cap after last seasons spending spree.  Key signed with the Titans so that leaves Smoot as a possible returnee. Engram finally stayed healthy and had a career year as a receiver, but in this great TE draft I would have looked to find a new one there and let someone else overpay him. So in addition to a possible edge rusher , interior O-Line , and OT , the jags also need a DT and a corner. I'm giving them the corner. Banks had a up down career at Maryland. He got starts as true freshman , but then between injuries and covid he didn't develop as much as you would hope. His senior year was a goody though , and I first took notice of him against Ohio ST. , because no one did a better job against Marvin Harrison JR. this year. Banks is a super physical corner that beats up receivers, and can stay with them out of the break better than most. Man against the run who will come forward and tackle , but his angles as a tackler need some work. He's good size, strong hands in press , loose hips, solid feet , and great athleticism. His football IQ is just OK, and his route recognition needs some work , which means he often a tick late reacting . Although when he does see it he explodes to the ball quickly. His awareness , timing , and ability to react to the ball with his back turned needs work though. While I thought he would have a good combine workout , I didn't expect the quite the eye popping numbers that he put up. A 4.35 forty , 1.49 ten yard split, a first among corners 42 inch vertical, and a 11"4" broad jump killed it. Although refusing to do the short shuttle and 3 cone will only hurt him. I gave him a grade just on the bubble between the 1rst & 2nd round ,but in this draft I would definitely take him in the first. 

25.NY GIANTS - O'CYRUS TORRANCE - G - FLORIDA - 6"5" , 330

NFL PLAYER COMP - MICHAEL ONWENU - PATRIOTS

The Giants made the playoffs in new HC Brian Daboll's first season at the helm, and that won him the coach of the year award. They put the franchise tag on Saquon Barkley after he finally managed to stay healthy , and have another good season, and I think that's much better than giving a injury prone RB a big long term deal. They resigned QB Daniel Jones to a long term deal, but I think they over payed him, but I guess with better WR's he might be able to live up to it? They don't have any other key free agents in my book. A big high point was trading a 3rd round comp pick for Darren Waller , and Waller combined with Daniel Bellinger gives the Giants 2 TE's that can make plays as a receiver. Especially because Jones likes safe short middle of the field throws , and Waller is the mismatch weapon they previously lacked , but he needs to stay healthy. Also, Sterling Sheppard resigned on a cheap veteran minimum deal so hopefully he can stay healthy. Speedster Darius Slayton resigned too  , and with the addition of fellow ( but injury prone) speedster Parris Campbell from the Colts its clear they are trying to get Jones the weapons to succeed. In addition I like the signing of LB Bobby Okereke , as the Giants had previously made the position a low priority. A potential number one WR who can play outside, center & guard,  and both CB & safety are still needs. The Giants now lack cap space , so don't be surprised if they take a step back in the standings in year 2 of the Daboll regime, but I do believe he will bring a consistently competitive team in the long run. Torrance is that rare 4 year starter. He spent the first 3 years at Louisiana , but he followed coach Napier to Florida this season , and was the best guard in the best conference in all of College Football in 2022. I did 3 games from 2021 and 4 from 2022 with no penalties. Huge powerful guy in the run game , but just a average get off. His strength shines as a straight up drive blocker , and even on some inside zone combo's , but he also takes up so much space that he sometimes makes it hard for his partner to work the tandem part. Wide base and long arms for the interior. Short strong power steps keep him from losing his balance very often in the run game , and he rarely ends up on the ground unless he is on top of somebody. He is a people mover as soon as he strikes & latches on in when they are running the ball. Strong giant hands & punch and he usually throws them inside, but when he gets too wide or high he will readjust his hands well mid play. Gets to the second level alright and usually hits somebody with force , but doesn't always sustain or take the right angles. Quick for his size , but not quick enough for stretch zone or most reach blocks. Great anchor in pass pro with long enough arms and a strong punch & grip, but he is a bit top heavy and he can get caught leaning & fall of some blocks or get even occasionally get shucked. However, generally he just re-anchors and sits down to stall out the defender , but in the games I watched he gave up no sacks & very little pressure statistically. I wish he would short set more because his run fits are so strong & low that he knocks people backwards quickly, and when he is aggressive getting to the defender first they rarely do anything. He can maintain blocks on the move well for such a big guy inline , and I would love to see him playing at around 315-320. It would improve his get off & performance at the 2nd level.  He looked a little slimmer at the Senior Bowl ( weighed 337) , and had a good week that should not only solidify his 1rst round status , but could see him go in the top 20. Torrance was then down to 330 at the combine so he is heading in the right direction. One of only 2 guys ( Steve Avila is the other ) who slowed down Jalen Carter. Would ideally fit in a power running scheme  , and the Giants need to run the ball a lot, because Jones hasn't shown he is up to the task of carrying the offense.  Torrance is the only guy in this draft who actually played guard in 2022 that I have a first round grade on. 

***TRADE***The CHIEFS trade their 1rst (#31) and 3rd (#95) ROUNDERS in this draft to the COWBOYS for their 1rst (#26) ROUNDER ***TRADE***

26.CHIEFS-(dall) - ANTON HARRISON- OT - OKLAHOMA- 6"4" , 315

NFL PLAYER COMP -  TERRON ARMSTEAD - DOLPHINS

The Chiefs won it all again , and as long as Reid & Mahomes are together they are always a contender for the Lombardi. So Congrats to the Chief's and all of their fans!. Champs tend to have cap issues , and cutting Frank Clark , is going to solve some of them. They didn't place the tag on LT Orlando Brown , and  I doubted he would get the money he thought he would in free agency. Although 4 years for 64 million to the Bengals was even less than I expected , because he is a solid starter. RT Andrew Wylie was nothing more than a stop gap to me , and I was expecting KC to definitely replace him anyway , so losing him to Washington isn't a loss. Signing Jaguars RT Jawaan Taylor for 4 years and 80 million with the intention of moving him to left tackle did catch me off guard. Losing JUJU to the patriots is a win to me, because I would rather have last years 2nd rounder Skyy Moore in the slot anyway. Versatile D-Lineman Charles Omenihu can play inside & out , but 2 years 20 million also seems like a lot of money to get him away from the niners. Letting young safety Juan Thornhill go to the Browns was something I wouldn't have done either , especially for only 3 years at 21 million. The Chiefs have drafted so well over the last few years that they probably just believe they can fill their roster holes through the draft. So their biggest needs are OT , WR , safety ,  and edge rusher. On tape Harrison looks like a potential starting LT to me, but he needs to hit the weights , and get stronger & in better shape. This was one of the guys I was betting on killing it in Indy , and while he did well at the combine despite the extra weight that you see on film , he could have done better if he had showed up in better shape. Plus he is the last of the guys I expect to play OT in the NFL that I am comfortable saying he could be a plug and play starter outside with some adjustments. However , despite a good athletic showing in the testing there I am pissed that he looked out of shape to me, so I am actually moving him back a little in my rankings because that makes me question his football character. I was hoping he would be training hard at a draft prep facility and come in fit, but you can't be training that hard if you have man boobs. He is tailor made for the Chiefs pass heavy offense, because pass protection is where he shines. Smooth mover with nimble feet & good hand placement , but what I want is more violence to his game. If you hammer your punch into the guy ,and stop him in his tracks , he doesn't have much of a chance of getting free even if you lose the secondary hand fight. Its just that those hard punches are inconsistent with him. Plus he needs to play lower everywhere, but that is easily fixable, which is why I don't know why he kept allowing himself to get shoved in the QB's lap a few times a game instead of bending his knees & anchoring down. Speed rushers have little chance against him trying to go outside, but a bull rush or a speed to power guy who doesn't get caught with that initial punch can wreck him , and his retreating deep style of pass blocking opens up the way for easy inside counters. As a run blocker Harrison is also too high , get stood up even farther on initial contact too often,  doesn't place his hands as well, and too often looks like he is just trying to wall off & shield defenders instead of going after them. Sometimes that is necessary , but not when they are running right behind you, because then you need to move the line of scrimmage backwards. This same reactive safe approach is why he worries me. O-Lineman shouldn't think about catching guys all the time, or just trying to get in the way and slow their man down . Even if you kick step deep i pass pro, and are waiting for the rusher to come to you , a O-Lineman should be like a crocodile waiting to strike. There should be a point where you spring forward in the water yelling "GOTCHA!" as you punch him , latch on , and then take over control. Patience can be good for a O-Lineman but Harrison is too patient. If you retreat more than 2 yards without contact in the NFL you are usually losing the rep. His really deep retreating style just causes gaps too big for NFL pass rushers. In the run game you should be chomping at the bit to be free and then move your opponent against his will. Soft passive play styles get QB's and RB's hurt. He fits best in a zone heavy system right now, and he can do his initial part of the double team most of the time , but if its a quick slip up to the next guy his hands get wide too often. Anton also has the movement skills &  initial quickness to stay engaged ,string out the run , and get to the the 2nd level, but even then he's just usually trying secure a guy. There are times he is just trying to stalk block and the defender just goes straight to the ball untouched because of the lack of urgency. Sometimes you have to go hunting at the 2nd level so that the next time you get out there those dudes are backing up or going around which makes big plays way more possible. Pulls pretty well too , and that's when he tends to actually strike a aggressive blow best. So while I still have the Chiefs selecting him in the first round, and hope being around their other ass kicking O-Lineman like Thuney & Humprey will rub off on him, I now think he will go later in the first round. You do see Harrison unleash the beast in the occasional flash so you know he's capable of it , and his tape is still pretty good, but someone this athletically gifted should take better advantage of it.

27.BUFFALO - DALTON KINCAID - ** - WR/TE - UTAH - 6"4" , 246

NFL PLAYER COMP -  DARREN WALLER -  RAIDERS

Buffalo lost young LB Tremaine Edmunds coming off a career year to the Bears, but since he never played up to his draft status until he was a free agent I get not over paying for him. They did extend Matt Milano who is a steadier player anyway , and bringing him & safety Jordan Poyer back were the 2 most important moves they could have made from their own roster. They still need a LB, and a WR at the very least. However, they really need offensive lineman more , and in this draft the lack of them who can start now is going to push guys up boards, and if you want a starter you have to get him early. They did sign guard/center Connor Mcgovern away from Dallas, but he couldn't even keep the full time job at either position there.  The incoming free agent I like most is Damien Harris from the rival Patriots. He a big power back that could take some goal line carries away from Josh Allen , and help keep him healthy. Plus he has three 100 yard games against the Bills so they know first hand what he can do. WR Isaiah Mckenzie was also let go. Both of the Bills safeties are studs , and they are also interchangeable , but they are also both over 30. Plus Hyde is coming off a major injury where he missed 15 games , and Poyer missed 5 himself. So they brought in young free agent Taylor Rapp on a one year deal to help out.  O-Line would fit too , but without a trade up they won't get a sure 1rst round guy, So I am giving them a receiver who is the best receiving TE in the draft. Kincaid is  a former WR turned move TE who dominated USC this year WITH 16 catches for 234 yards and a TD. To me he is not a TE , but instead a power slot receiver, although he lines up all over the place. Great hands , even on contested catches. Good route runner and just a Good separator all round . Can also get you some yards after the catch. I expected him to enter last year draft because of his age, but he decided to go back to school. If you want a move TE he is the most polished and adept receiver at the position in this draft. Going back to Utah for another year ended up being a good decision because you saw his growth as a receiver on 2022 tape.  He was the main receiver for this offense,  has a wide catch radius , and he will fight for the ball. He tries hard as blocker, but he sucks at it inline.  Kincaid just bad overall technique as a blocker, and he even struggles to stay engaged against DB'S down the field. Needs to get stronger , keep his head up, and learn to use his hands better to make it there in the NFL. All those things are fixable, and if he takes to NFL coaching he can turn that negative into a positive , at least against DB's. Will be a 24 year old rookie , and since a back injury has prevented him from working out at all in the pre-draft process , I have trouble giving him a 1rst round grade. Back injuries often linger , and it will basically come down to what each teams doctors say. Plus , it's a BACK injury , and those are often permanent and/or career ending at some point. At this point we don't even know if he will be ready for mini camp , and while I have looked around enough to see him going in the top 25 of some mocks I would have trouble making that selection for a 24 year old guy that I could only get one good contact out of.

28.BENGALS -  EMMANUEL FORBES - CB - MISSISSIPPI ST.

NFL PLAYER COMP - TERRY MCDANIEL - retired

The Bengals spent a lot in free agent money on their O-Line last off season , and while they were better  , it still wasn't good enough. Now they signed enormous LT Orlando Brown to a big contract in free agency , and this allows them to move Jonah Williams to guard or RT if La'el Collins isn't healthy, which could upgrade 2 spots up front. They lost both starting safeties ( Jesse Bates & Von Bell) in free agency , and since Bates was a talented 26 year old I thought he would be brought back. They do have last years 1rst rounder Dax Hill ready to play one spot , but a team in a Superbowl window usually doesn't let a guy like Bates go. They did smartly resign young LB Germaine Pratt. RB Samaje Perine played a valuable role for them last season , especially in the passing game, but he signed with Denver. Backups are easier to replace though. Losing TE Hayden Hurst is OK, because this is such a great TE draft. So CB , TE , safety , and maybe another O-Lineman are their biggest needs. Forbes was the most highlight reel making corner in college football this season. He has good  height , and  long skinny build, but he really needs to hit the squat rack to start bulking up those bird legs. He's physical with receivers , which surprises me with that frame , but it could be a lot harder with the bigger & stronger NFL receivers.  Also mans up as a tackler ,  but he can mowed down by ball carriers , and it will only get worse in the NFL unless he adds weight. High football IQ ,elite ball skills, but he does take a little too many chances jumping routes. Too grabby on the break too. A pick six waiting to happen on obvious passing downs where he attacks the football with a WR's hands.  Serious twitch and makeup speed when trailing , and you just know he is baiting the QB. At the combine I didn't think he would be 200 pounds  or anything, but I was expecting some weight gain , and that he would at be at least180. So I needed to take that into account & change his comp , because his size wasn't just disappointing  , but instead a complete outlier. 32 and 1/4 inch arms help him be the longest skinniest corner that I can ever rember having a good chance to go in the first round. Plays the game like a super skinny version of Trevon Diggs , and if he ever does get up to around 200 pounds after his speed starts to slip I would love to see him at safety. 

29.SAINTS-(den,sf,mia)-MYLES MURPHY- DE/DT - CLEMSON -6"5" , 268

NFL PLAYER COMP - EMMANUEL OGBAH - DOLPHINS

The saints SHOULD finally rebuild this off season, but since they kept restructuring contracts, and signed Derek Carr they won't. Their one possible key free agent was DE Marcus Davenport, and while he is a good young  player, I doubted if they could afford what other teams would pay. I wouldn't give him a giant contract anyway , because he isn't a fulltime player , and has never quite played up to his potential. Somehow Davenport got the  Vikings to give him a one year 13 million dollar deal. Anyway , since they are restructuring contracts and pushing that bill forward to next years cap AGAIN they have a good chance to win their division , because every other team in it is starting over, or in the midst of a rebuild already. Their defense alone should make them a contender in the NFC South. Lets just hope they don't trade away anymore future picks this time around. They even brought back Michael Thomas on some sort of weird restructured one year deal. Over the last 3 seasons he has just been hurt so much. Thomas missed 9 games in 2020 , the entire 2021 season, and just when I thought he was finally healthy he got hurt in game 3 last season. He was very productive before that though , and maybe a upgrade at QB with Carr will make him want to try another year in the Big Easy.  Maybe it is partially the teams fault,  I really don't know , but it feels like there is some bad blood there. He restructured his deal for them , so maybe some peace has been made, and if they trade him a lot of cap dollars will get eaten up. RB Alvin Kamara could be suspended as well , but they brought in NFL rushing TD leader Jamaal Williams  on a very friendly 3 year 12 million dollar deal. The saints have 3 good veteran O-lineman , and also a potential LT in last years #1 pick Trevor Penning who was hurt last year, and they have a good track record of hitting on O-lineman with their first pick over the last 6 years. Guard Andrus Peat has been bad for a long time, but the Saints don't seem to know it , but at least they got him to take a pay cut when they brought him back again. The Saints have already lost DT's David Onyemata & Shy Tuttle , and LB Kaden Ellis to division rivals. While they brought in Nathan Sheperd & Kalen Saunders to take some of those DT snaps , off the ball LB is now a need. So I believe they need a guard , LB , DT  , WR , and a DE. However , I think they go edge rusher here, especially since one with such a high floor with high level potentially falls to them at 29.  Murphy is big framed long armed strong guy who has knockback power on contact. Has a good get off & motor , but he's not the twitched top end up burst off the ball guy that many other edge rushers in this draft are. He's almost all power now , and needs to learn how to counter better , and add more moves to his pass rush repertoire. Doesn't change direction well either , although he will chase down plays to the whistle. His bull rush is great , but he can't bend or dip well, and he gets ridden safely past the pocket too often when he goes outside. He fires out low against the run or pass , but he does tend to rise too quickly as pass rusher too often. They move him around a little, but he is mostly on the right side, but I don't like it when they stand him up and drop him into coverage. I think he would be best as 4-3 strongside end, or maybe adding 25 pounds and playing some more 5 technique in the NFL , but he definitely isn't a 3-4 OLB. He can hold his ground in the run game , and stack & shed when he is down in his stance . Murphy can be disruptive moving down the line of scrimmage to make plays too, and he is pretty quick on twists stunts. He will fight through some double teams , but usually gets pushed back. He needs to be a better finisher because he is coming balls out with a full head of steam ,but too often one little juke causes him to miss late in the play. I like him because he is strong , has a high floor , he tries hard, and he has great frame. However Murphy lacks polish , but he was still productive on film anyway in spite of it. I ended up with a 2nd round grade on him, but if he polishes up his skill set he could be a good NFL player for a long time. 

30.EAGLES -  BRYAN BRESEE - DT - CLEMSON - 6"5" , 305

NFL PLAYER COMP - SHELDON RICHARDSON - FA

Bresee's tape inside before the season was great, and you see him fighting through blocks and making plays everywhere , especially against the run. They line him up all alone the line of scrimmage , but the difference in effectiveness at different alignments this year was telling.  His best tape this year was off the edge , and he needs to play lower no matter where he is lined up , but especially when he is on the inside.  He got beat up against the run in both the N. Dame & the Tennessee games , and if my last college game was that Bowl game against ( I just watched it before I typed this part) Tennessee I would have went back to school.  He had a tough season compared to what I watched before this year. So now all those flashy splash snaps from his true freshman season, and the early 2021 games before he got hurt now seem like the good old days. This is guy who still makes some spectacular plays against the run , even when double teamed , but his tape was so up & down in 2022. He needs more pass rush moves and a actual plan to improve there. Coming off a torn ACL isn't easy , and his conditioning and overall muscle tone looked like they took a hit. Plus he had other health & and a serious family issue too. The flashes of high level athleticism are still there , but there are too many plays where he gets man handled that it scares you , and he just looked like he lost some of his fundamental techniques. Needs to hit the weights , especially the squat rack. Or maybe slimming down into the 270's and being a full time edge would help him more , because I went from thinking this guy might be the next Jeffrey Simmons to maybe thinking he was former 1rst round bust Taven Bryan after watching that Bowl game. He showed up in better shape in Indy , and his 4.86 forty & 1.71 ten yard split were great at 6"6" , 298. That could see his stock soaring again , but right now I would be worried about taking him in the 1rst round , because he is kind of a tweener. Although a year of NFL coaching & weight room time could see him taking off. So I love his ceiling , and I'm uncertain about his floor. On a team like Philly that has so many veteran studs that this could be the best place where he could get the mentoring he needs to reach that high ceiling. 

31.DALLAS-(kc)- MICHAEL  MAYER - TE - N. DAME - 6"5"  , 250

NFL PLAYER COMP - BEN COATES - retired 

There are 2 big pieces of news to begin the off season in Dallas. One is that somehow DC Dan Quinn didn't get a head coaching job ( really Arizona?) and will be returning. The other is OC Kellen Moore has left to the Chargers for the same job, and that HC Mike McCarthy will be calling the plays , in what was probably a mutual decision. To me this means that Dallas should have a great defense again, and that McCarthy needs to at LEAST get them to the NFC Championship game, or Quinn will have his job in 2024. As for what McCarthy calling plays means that is open to much more debate. As far as I know Dallas isn't completely changing offensive systems , just play callers, but maybe they add a little more west coast offense staples to their scheme. Dak has said that McCarty is only changing about 20-30% of the play book, but the only thing I can tell you for sure is right now is that there will be less curls & more slants in the pattern for Dallas in 2023. One of the bigger questions this off season was whether Tyron Smith will return for a 13th season. In his prime Tyron was the best OT in the league , and when he hangs them up he should go straight to the HOF , but Smith is well past his prime now. The last time Smith played a full season was 2015 , and for the next 4 years he missed 3 games a season , and he was still worth his salary missing 3 games a year. Not anymore.  He has shown to be beyond injury prone , because he isn't missing games with little boo-boos. Massive injuries that require surgery like his back , neck , ankle , and hamstring have wrecked any sense of reliability from him. Smith missed 14 games in 2020 , 5 in 2021 , and 13 last season. The cowboys drafted Tyler Smith to play left guard last season , but also eventually to be the long term replacement for Tyron. Also, I'm going to just call them ( Tyron & Tyler) by their first names for the rest of this or it will get confusing. Anyway , of course Tyron got hurt , and Tyler was forced to play outside far earlier than I think he was ready for. On the bright side Tyler improved throughout the season, played much better than I thought he would , and has definitely earned the right to be the left tackle of the future in Dallas. If Tyron returns on some sort of incentive laden reduced salary contract , and returns anywhere to form it's huge, especially with Tyler moving to left guard and improving that position. I say the over/under on Tyron's number of missed games is 8 , but I hope I'm wrong , because I would also love to see one of the ALL-TIME greats go out healthy after one more studly season. Dallas had a few key free agents in Donovan Wilson , Leighton Vander Esch , and Dalton Schultz. It looked like they didn't think they could afford Schultz , but since he ended up with just 9 million for one year to the Texans that's a pay cut. Although they did quickly resigned Wilson & Vander Esch without over paying either. Rotational pass rusher Dante Fowler was also brought back after a productive season getting after the QB in limited snaps. With the franchise tag being slapped on Tony Pollard I had been waiting for the Boys to cut Zeke, because Pollard has been the better overall RB the past 2 seasons for Dallas , and they finally let Elliott go. Zeke was woefully overpaid at this point , and if Dallas hadn't cut him I would have believed that Jerry Jones is either senile, or the crazy internet rumors about Zeke having blackmail material on Jerrah were true. 😁 Getting Stephon Gilmore on the cheap for a 5th rounder makes CB a lesser need now. Then also snagging away disgruntled , but still productive regardless of QB , wide receiver Brandin Cooks from the Texans for a few late picks means Dallas is having a great off season so far. I can't say they are completely going all in because they haven't traded away any of next years picks yet , but they have restructured a lot of deals pushing cap consequences into the future  ,and they do like they are puling out a lot of stops to get back to the Superbowl. .  Guard , Nose tackle, TE are their chief needs at the moment. Although I still think they should be looking to draft another CB & WR who can play outside at some point . I think a big inline Y tight end who can block like Mayer or Washington would fit Dallas better. Plus Dak loves throwing to the TE. Mayer is a big thick complete TE. Not one of those F Tight Ends that are just big slot WR's.  This guy can move people off the ball in the run game, break tackles,  get open, and has SUPER soft hands. Not a burner , although he is fast enough to make plays. Precise smart route runner who gets just enough separation , and Mayer is the KING of contested catches , and he had to be thanks to below average QB play. Not just a underneath chain mover , because has lot of catches in the mid range down the field. Today too many GM's are looking for that rare seem stretcher in the middle of the field , and don't completely value a complete hard nosed TE like Mayer as much as they should. If this was 25 years ago he might go in the top 10, But I expect him to go in the bottom 3rd of the first round in this pussified age of move TE's. One of the highest floors in the whole draft. Plus ,he reminds me of great TE that should be in the HOF that hasn't yet gotten his due in my opinion. I would happily take him starting at pick #20 of the first round if he fell to me. Teams that really want to run the ball like Atlanta, Carolina, Tennessee , New England, Green Bay, Detroit , Seattle , and Dallas if McCarthy is calling the plays should all be in on this guy in the second half of the first round. If you really think about it every one of these teams needs at least a #2 or #3 WR. You can make the case that New England , Chicago, and Tennessee don't even have a number one WR. So if I am any of those teams I would really be thinking about drafting this guy , or Darnell Washington, and running a lot more 2 TE sets. It actually makes a lot sense to me, especially with the subpar WR class in the draft. Your QB's & even your RB's would thank you for it. I didn't expect Mayer to run fast at the combine , and I would have been content with a 4.7 forty at 260+ pounds, but that wasn't what happened. Mayer cut weight down to 249 to run faster , and still only ran a 4.7 , and I want him playing closer to 260 like the guy I saw on tape . So I dropped him some , and he is now my #2 TE , but I would still take him in the 1rst round of this particular draft , and he would fit well with the boys. 

FIRST SELECTION FOR TEAMS WITHOUT A 1rst ROUND PICK

32.STEELERS-(chc)- WILL MCDONALD -  DE - IOWA ST. - 6"4" , 240

NFL PLAYER COMP - RANDY GREGORY - BRONCOS

33.HOUSTON - TRENTON SIMPSON - LB - CLEMSON

NFL PLAYER COMP - PETE WERNER - SAINTS

34.ARIZONA - DAWAND JONES - OT- OHIO ST.

NFL PLAYER COMP - TRENT BROWN  PATRIOTS

35.COLTS - STEVE AVILA - G/C - TCU

NFL PLAYER COMP - DAVID DECASTRO - retired

36.LA RAMS- JOHN MICHAEL SCHMITZ - C - MINNESOTA- 6"4" , 301

NFL PLAYER COMP - TRAVIS FREDERICK - retired

The rams look like a rebuilding team ... on defense? Cutting a stud like Bobby Wagner after a ALL-PRO  season, and trading Jalen Ramsey for a 3rd make no sense if your trying to contend. I personally believe that if it weren't for recent new contracts for Stafford ,  Donald , and Kupp that would immediately accelerate all their guaranteed money on this years cap, they might even trade them too. Maybe not though ,  because maybe they see this as a reloading season where they reset their cap, and then hope that all their cheap young draft picks & journeymen improve throughout the year on defense. Leonard Floyd is gone too , and they haven't signed a single free agent away from anyone.  Last but not least , they also dumped Allen Robinson to the Steelers for a 7th , but they still have to pay abut 10 million of his salary. I know that if I was a undrafted defensive free agent in the 2023 draft I would sign with the Rams because it would give me the best chance to play now.  O-Line is their biggest weakness , and I giving them the best center in the draft. Schmitz had 23 starts at center by the end of 2021, including all 13 that season , so I don't really know why he decided to return for a 6th season. I thought he would have been a 3rd rounder in last years draft. This year his tape was very similar to last years , with the exception of being even better in the run game. A former wrestler who understands balance & leverage with tree trunk legs  ,and very little excess weight around the middle. Fires out quick & low and strikes a blow as run blocker  ,and will extend his arms and start pushing once he has him. Then he will either be moving his man backwards , turning him , or both. Rarely lets his man cross his face , and he can adjust on the move to and reclaim proper hand placement & leverage. Rarely stood up at the LOS and will readjust and start driving his legs if he does , but even if initially beat he won't give up.  Secures the combo block well first before anyone moves on , but in those tight spaces his hands tend to get outside more. He will go hunting down the field too , but the farther he gets from the LOS the more likely it is that he will miss a block. Just solid as a pass blocker, but he is on a team that runs the ball 2 out of every 3 plays so maybe with more reps it will improve.  Always looking to hit someone if he's uncovered in pass pro. When he is covered he has a stout anchor , and you see him giving up less depth than the rest of the O-Line, but his short arms make it harder to stay engaged in the long term , and he's especially vulnerable to push/pulls. Looked like the Alpha on all 3 days of the Senior Bowl practices by beating guys through the echo of the whistle in 1 vs 1 , and in team. His pass sets were smoother that week too. You don't see a lot of centers who can make the kind of reach blocks Schmitz does, and while I don't think he will test as athletically as he plays , the tape doesn't lie. Schmitz excels in Minnesota's stretch zone scheme, and his key blocks popped off some big runs, but the main reason is that he gets off the ball with such quickness. Now you may say all centers should get off the ball first because they are the one snapping it , and everyone else follows. That's true , but not all centers can do it so fluidly, and the ones who are still thinking about securing the snap are just a tick slower. Schmitz is a pure center who does it without thinking at this point. He will be a 24 year old rookie so you have to keep that in mind. His ability to not only block on the move , but to keep moving his hips & adjusting to keep his head on the outside , hands inside , and setting the edge without getting a penalty is rare. High floor guy  ,and I think he is now a lock for at least the top 50, and I think top 40 is more likely in this draft that lacks a lot of plug & play starters along the O-Line. In a week where a lot of O-Lineman played well Schmitz had the best week of all in Mobile. Schmitz is a powerful fighter off the ball who is always looking to finish in the run game , and this type of player can set the tone for and lead a O-Line. .So since he probably did move up at least a round in this years draft maybe going back to school did work out for Schmitz.

37.SEATTLE-(den)- BJ OJULARI - OLB/DE - LSU

NFL PLAYER COMP - NFL PLAYER COMP AZEEZ OJULARI - GIANTS

38.RAIDERS - MATTHEW BERGERON - T/G - SYRACUSE

NFL PLAYER COMP - DAVID DIEHL - retired

39.CAROLINA - QUENTIN JOHNSTON - WR - TCU - 6"3" , 208

NFL PLAYER COMP  - A leaner BRANDON MARSHALL - retired

40.SAINTS - CALIJAH KANCEY - DT - PITTSBURGH- 6"1' , 281

NFL PLAYER COMP - ED OLIVER - BILLS

41.TITANS - ZAY FLOWERS - WR - BOSTON COLLEGE - 5"9" , 192

NFL PLAYER COMP -  SANTANA MOSS - retired

42.JETS-(cle)- DREW SANDERS - LB/EDGE - ARKANSAS

NFL PLAYER COMP -  JAMIE COLLINS - PATRIOTS

***TRADE***The PACKERS trade AARON RODGERS to the JETS  for their 2nd ROUNDER (#43) and  a conditional 3rd ROUNDER in 2024 ***TRADE***

43.PACKERS-(jets)- LUKE MUSGRAVE - ** - TE - OREGON ST.

NFL PLAYER COMP - GREG OLSEN - retired

44.ATLANTA - MAZI SMITH - DT - MICHIGAN

NFL PLAYER COMP - DONTARI POE - retired

45.PACKERS - JOSH DOWNS - WR - N. CAROLINA

NFL PLAYER COMP - DOUG BALDWIN - retired

46.PATRIOTS - DJ TURNER - CB - MICHIGAN

NFL PLAYER COMP - ORLANDO SCANDRICK - retired

47.WASHINGTON - CODY MAUCH - G/T - N. DAKOTA ST.

NFL PLAYER COMP - ALI MARPET - retired

48.DETROIT - JACK CAMPBELL - LB - IOWA

LEIGHTON VANDER ESCH - COWBOYS

49.STEELERS - KEEANU BENTON - DT - WISCONSIN - 6"3" , 312

NFL PLAYER COMP - DA'RON PAYNE - WASHINGTON

50.PATRIOTS-(tb)- KEION WHITE - DE/DT - GEORGIA TECH

NFL PLAYER COMP - ZIGGY ANSAH - FA

51.MIAMI - TUCKER KRAFT - TE - S. DAKOTA ST. - 6"5" , 254

NFL PLAYER COMP - DALLAS GOEDERT - EAGLES

The Fins are ALL IN again. Bringing in Jalen Ramsey in a trade , giving Ramsey a new deal , restructuring other contracts to clear up cap space. Plus , that's in a year where they are already missing  1rst , 4th , and 5th round picks.  In addition to Ramsey I really like the signing of LB David Long,  who is a very underrated player to me , and they got him relatively cheap as well. I wish they hadn't brought back both injury prone veteran RB's in Mostert & Wilson , but at least they know the system ,and are productive when healthy. TE , guard , and possibly right tackle could all be in play here. The Fins also got versatile receiver Braxton Berrios from the rival Jets on a cheap deal. TE Mike Gesicki was a good receiver , and a bad blocker , but he also stayed in the division when he signed with the Patriots. Durham Smythe has shown some blocking ability , but hasn't done much as a receiver , although they did bring in Eric Saubert from the Broncos. This team needs a potential good combo TE that can play inline and make plays as a receiver. Kraft is a big small school TE with a lot of upside. He missed over half the season with a injury, and it showed when he wasn't on the field. The former RB is a strong runner after the catch. His blocking looks good from both a effort & results perspective , but you have to take the level of competition in stride , and his technique needs plenty of refinement there. Both his body & hands are too wide or too high too often on contact as a blocker , but he keeps after it. He would get stood up and pushed back at the LOS more often in the NFL , but that is easily fixable by just starting & staying lower , and by widening his base to help his leg drive. Although he does a better job blocking down the field. He needs work on his route running  because he will have trouble separating in the NFL with these lazy cuts. He hasn't been a TE that long , and they move him all over the formation already. I believe he just needs more reps , and less moving around to take a jump up in understanding how to play TE.  He stands out on tape as a guy who is a level above his competition like Dallas Goedert before him , but I had a higher grade on Goedert coming out because he was more polished as a receiver. Kraft is a better blocker than Goedert was in college, but Goedert has improved a lot there as a pro. Hands just OK , and that's more than anything makes me think he falls to the late 2nd/early 3rd. It might take him a year or 2 , but I think he will be a good NFL starter down the line. 

52.SEATTLE - DARIUS RUSH - CB - S. CAROLINA

NFL PLAYER COMP - JAMES BRADBERRY - EAGLES

53.BEARS-(balt)- FELIX ANUDIKE - UZOMAH - DE/OLB - KANSAS ST.

NFL PLAYER COMP - JOSH SWEAT - EAGLES

54.CHARGERS - JAHMYR GIBBS - RB - ALABAMA

NFL PLAYER COMP - CHARLIE GARNER- retired

55.DETROIT-(minn)- ADETOMIWA ADEBAWORE - DT/DE - N. WESTERN

NFL PLAYER COMP - GENO ATKINS - retired

56.JAGUARS - DERICK HALL - DE - AUBURN

NFL PLAYER COMP -  ROBERT QUINN - EAGLES

57.GIANTS - CEDRIC TILLMAN - ** - WR - TENNESEE- 6"3" , 213

NFL PLAYER COMP - MIKE WILLIAMS - CHARGERS

58.DALLAS -ZACH CHARBONNET - RB - UCLA

NFL PLAYER  COMP - EZEKIEL ELLIOTT - COWBOYS

59.BUFFALO - JOE TIPPMAN - C - WICONSIN

NFL PLAYER COMP - MAX UNGER

60.BENGALS - SAM LAPORTA - TE - IOWA

NFL PLAYER COMP - DENNIS PITTA - retired

61.BEARS-(sf,car)- JULIUS BRENTS - CB  - KANSAS ST. - 6"3' , 202

NFL PLAYER COMP - RICHARD SHERMAN - retired

62.EAGLES - DEVON ACHANE - RB - TEXAS A&M

NFL PLAYER COMP - WARRICK DUNN - retired

63.CHIEFS - TYLER SCOTT - WR - CINCINNATTI

NFL PLAYER COMP - TYLER LOCKETT - SEAHAWKS

FIRST CHOICE TEAMS THAT DON'T HAVE A 1rst OR 2nd ROUND PICK

67.DENVER-(indy)- ZACCH PICKENS - DT - S. CAROLINA - 6"4" , 291

NFL PLAYER COMP - LEONARD WILLIAMS - GIANTS

74.BROWNS-(jets)- ZACH HARRISON - DE  OHIO ST. - 6 "6" , 274

NFL PLAYER COMP - JADEVEON CLOWNEY - BROWNS

99.49ers - Compensatory Pick 

JAMMIE ROBINSON- S- FLORIDA ST. - 5"11" , 191

NFL PLAYER COMP - JIMMY WARD - 49ers

The 49ers had the rare trifecta of QB injuries , and fell short of their Super Bowl goal. Trey Lance will get a shot to prove he was worth 3 first round picks , because Brock Purdy is having elbow surgery. I Lance fulfills his promise than the niners will have the kind of QB problem every team wants. 2 good QB'S , and one who will be traded to replace the draft capitol they lost going up for Lance. They have lost some good secondary players in Jimmy Ward & Emmanuel Moseley, but signed veteran DT Javon Hargrave to a 4 year 84 million deal. While I am a big fan of the pass rush that Hargraves provides it did seem like a lot of money for a 30 year old guy. Javon is a upgrade over Charles Omenihu , who signed with the Chiefs , but Omenihu is also only 25. The loss of starting RT Mike McGlinchey to the Broncos hurts because he is a good run blocker on a team that wants to run the ball a lot. They did resign center Jake Brendel , but he is nothing special , and they also signed center/guard Jon Feliciano away from the Giants. So I guess the loser of that battle is the interior swing guy. While I personally hate to ever advocate for a kicker not named Adam Vinatieri or Justin Tucker I do think they should start prioritizing resigning kicker Robbie Gould. A guy who has never missed a kick in the post season should be in demand for any team that has Superbowl aspirations. They also lost 2 starting DB's in Jimmy Ward & Emmanuel Mosele so I giving them a guy who can help out at both CB & safety. Since the 49ers  don't have their own 1rst  , 2nd , or 3rd round picks , and are low on cap space , their 3 compensatory picks at the end of the 3rd round better hit.  Robinson is a smaller safety but a big hitter, and can cover the slot , but he needs to make sure he secures the tackle first more often. He's all over the field making plays on tape , but especially in the box. He's a aggressive guy who plays bigger than he is , and his football IQ puts him in the right position a lot , but he comes in too hot and overruns more plays than you want.   He can also play deep , and even though he's not a burner he's usually where he needs to be , although I wouldn't want him covering a speedster deep down the field in man.  He can also get big bothered by larger WR'S & TE's at the catch point , but he will fight for the ball .His smarts were on display in Mobile , and he was making plays at the Senior Bowl. He had a disappointing combine , but I wasn't expecting big things there anyway , because he is a better football player than he is an athlete.