# Is for a player with with reported character or maturity concerns
** Is for a player with reported injury concerns.
1.DETROIT - LAREMY TUNSIL - OT - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOE STALEY - 49ers
Despite spending having 3 first round picks on their offensive line the Lions haven't protected Stafford very well this season. While center Travis Swanson is the worst offender, no center is likely to ever go in the top 10. A healthy Larry Worford and a more experienced Laken Tomlinson should be a sturdy pair of guards long term. Neither right tackle has been even decent this year , and left tackle Reilly Rieff would probably be a better fit on the right side. Tunsil is coming off a broken leg , and was being held out by the NCAA for receiving extra benefits. The punishment finally came to an end and he played on October 24th against Texas A&M. Not only did Tunsil play, he played really well against a likely 2017 top 10 pick in Myles Garrett. The suspension could be a blessing to him , because less games means less chance of injury. As long as he keeps showing he is still the same elite talent I saw on tape before the injury he will be the first OT taken.Taking Tunsil here to man the left tackle spot would improve both edge protectors when they flipped Reiff over to right tackle.
2.SAN FRANCISCO - JARED GOFF - QB - CALIFORNIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CARSON PALMER - CARDINALS
Colin Kaerperneck's Jeckle and Hyde imitation has continued, and while I think he is getting to much of the blame, his contract allows them to move on from him after this year without a big penalty. Now that they have benched him( and since it's Gabbert he will probably get another chance to play anyway) a new QB is the most likely pick here.A more standard issue pocket passer will probably be wanted by the kind of unimaginative new head coach the niners are likely to hire. Yes, I think Tomsula will also be gone by next year, if not sooner. Goff is a top shelf talent with a good arm. If he can convince NFL teams that he can transition to a pro style offense ,he has a chance to be the first QB drafted. Goff has improved in all areas, and the last time they passed on a local CAL QB at the top of the draft it was Aaron Rodgers. He has faltered some of late ,and is no longer a shoe in to be the first QB taken, but right now I am keeping him on top. Even though Goff isn't an elite QB prospect right now, he is still pretty good, and the top QB usually goes first overall.
3.JACKSONVILLE - RONNIE STANLEY -OT - N. DAME
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DUANE BROWN - TEXANS
It's rare for me to put a team who's recent draft I liked so much so high in next years mock draft, but they still have too many questions for me right now.Sorry jags fans, but rushing Blake Bortles onto the field last year may have stunted his development, and another year of failure may permanently scar him. However, Bortles does have the talent to lead them to a .500 record if he could just play up to 75 percent of his potential this year. Unless he is downright terrible, and Gus Bradley gets fired ,I think the jags will give Blake at least one more year before drafting another QB. While I hope I am wrong ,and he is successful, there is a reason why so many vegas odds-makers have the jags as the biggest long shot to win it all. I personally no longer believe in Luke Joeckel as a left tackle, but they stuck with him anyway, and he has already gotten hurt again. I am not even sure if Gus Bradley will keep his job after this season, but if he does he will know protecting Blake is a priority, and you can't know how good Bortles can be until he has better protection on the backside. Stanley would have been a first round pick in the 2015 draft, and while he is already a stud pass protector, he needs to add more strength to be a bigger asset in the run game. The sad loss of Dante Fowler to a torn ACL only makes the chances of the jags having another high pick far more likely.
4.CLEVELAND - JOEY BOSA - DE - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - GREG HARDY - DALLAS
I expect the Browns to still be planning on Manziel being there QB of the future, and with McCown getting knocked out of the game week one he has already getting a chance to play. If he keeps maturing, growing as a passer, and staying out of trouble he may actually develop into that guy. I am not sold on him yet though, and if he implodes they could go after a QB again. However their QB's play this season, I still see them as a flawed organization & team with little hope of making the playoffs this year . Rarely do you see a 4-3 strong side end who is a great pass rusher, but Bosa is. He also has a great frame with long arms and the overall height and length to be a 5 technique. Shocks blockers with his hands off the snap and stays in control of them until he wants to shed them. He can already flat out dominate against the run or pass. He could team with Danny Shelton to form a serious force up front for years to come.
5.CHICAGO - JALEN RAMSEY - CB/S - FLORIDA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DEVIN McCOURTY - PATRIOTS
With Jay Cutler playing better than expected ,and Jon Fox having an a aversion to playing rookies at key positions, I am now thinking they go a different direction in the draft. The bears have plenty of needs though ,and Fox prefers to build on the defensive side of the ball. Ramsey is a former corner who converted to safety in 2014 and had a big season. Now they have converted him back to corner , and he looks great. The NFL is longing for players who can play both, and Ramsey can fill that need. Plus he has the ideal size that the NFL is now seeking in corners.
6.TENNESEE- VERNON HARGREAVES the 3rd- CB - FLORIDA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DARRELLE REVIS - JETS
For a young team that has already got some of the major building blocks of their rebuild in hand the best player available is usually the best strategy. In this case it may also coincide with an emerging need . Jason McCourty looked to be declining a little last season , and now he has a groin injury that required surgery and caused him to miss the beginning of the season. With a 7 million dollar base salary in 2016, and very little dead money consequence to the their cap if they cut him, a possibly declining McCourty may be a luxury they can do without. A new # 1 corner would then be needed, and it needs to be a guy who can play man coverage a lot. I have never seen a sophomore corner be the clear cut best corner in all of college football before, but Vernon was in 2014 . He is smart. fluid , physical and fast. He only has average size, but you wouldn't know it by the way he challenges receivers.
7.HOUSTON - PAXTON LYNCH - QB - MEMPHIS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOE FLACCO - RAVENS
Houston had just about everything but a QB on their team, and then Arian Foster got hurt. Barring one of the QB's on their roster taking a big step up, they won't be in contention this season. Penn State's Christian Hackenburg looked like a future number one overall pick when he played for Texans coach Bill O'brien as a freshman, and I kept thinking that they would eventually end up together in the NFL. Last year Christian regressed badly and looked like a different player without O'brien . This season Hackenburg has looked so bad that I think O'brien goes a different direction if a more currently successful QB with the skill set he desires is available when the Texans make their pick. I wasn't on Lynch until I watched the Ole miss game, but after I saw how well he played in that game I went back and watched the rest. He's a legit first rounder, and if he keeps playing like this he could end up going number one overall.
8.TAMPA BAY - ** JACK CONKLIN - OT - MICHIGAN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JAKE LONG - FA
So far Tampa Bay's O-line has looked very bad , and while all these younger players could develop by seasons end I think it's clear that Donovan Smith would be a better fit at RT , or even better inside at guard. With Logan Mankins turning 34 this season, on the downside of his career, and having a salary close to 7 million he could be cut . Smith could then slide inside to left guard. If they want Jameis Winston to survive & thrive they will need to upgrade the left tackle spot at the very least. Conklin has the athletic ability & feet to immediately upgrade their pass protection. He also plays to maul and can be a big asset in the run game long term.
9.WASHINGTON - CONNOR COOK - QB - MICHIGAN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MATT RYAN - FALCONS
Washington has an improved roster , but the reason I don't think they will do much this year is the coach Jay Gruden & RG3 decacle. Gruden was hired to improve RG3 .Instead of improving RG3 ,he has publicly embarrassed him, destroyed his confidence, and I wouldn't be surprised if he divides the locker room this year as well. For his part Griffin has acted entitled and lazy according to some reports. Others even say his own linemen don't like him , but they still kept him on the roster? Unless Cousins or McCoy show something on the field that we haven't seen yet, and I really doubt either's ability to be a long term NFL starter, I expect I an implosion could be coming in Washington this season. Especially when you chuck their special teams woes into the mix. A new QB for a new head coach would give hope to their fans again. Cook has the size, big arm, and talent around him to make a big jump up in production this season. If he does he could be the first pick in the draft, but he needs to show that "IT" factor & grace under pressure that every team wants in their franchise signal caller. This team already has a good running game, and a improved defense. With a steady QB that just avoids turnovers, and a new special teams coach,, they could be a contender for the NFC east title right away.
10.SAN DIEGO - ROBERT NKEMDICHE - DT/DE - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - SHELDON RICHARDSON - JETS
Since their is no offensive lineman worth this pick available in this scenario the Chargers should take the best player available. With their run defense being sub-par, and their pass rush also lacking, Nkemdiche also fills a need. He has the size and strength to hold up against the double team in their 3-4 , and the explosion & quickness to rush the passer. He was the # 1 overall prospect out of high school a few years back for a reason. Teaming him with Corey Liuget as bookend 4 techniques would help both players long term success.
11.BALTIMORE - TAYLOR DECKER - OT - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOE THOMAS - BROWNS
With Eugene Monroe being injured again, and his knee being a long term issue anyway, the Ravens are probably looking for a long term left tackle prospect. James Hurst has been really bad replacing Monroe, both last season & early this year. Decker has the athletic ability & feet to immediately upgrade their pass protection. While he isn't a mauler the Ravens do rum a zone blocking scheme that he could pick right up.
12.KANSAS CITY - JAYLON SMITH - LB - N. DAME
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DERRICK JHONSON - CHIEFS
While Derrick Johnson appears to have returned to form coming off an injury, he is also going to be 33 by next season, and the Chiefs don't have anyone special playing next to him inside. Smith is an elite talent with sideline to sideline range, and the ability to excel in coverage. Playing next to a pro like Jhonson for a few years can only improve his football IQ, and Smith actually reminds me of Jhonson to boot . Smith is also a very explosive pass rusher who can play some as a 3-4 rush backer if Tamba Hali isn't brought back.
13.OAKLAND - DEFOREST BUCKNER -DE - OREGON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CALAIS CAMPBELL - CARDINALS
With the raiders switching to a 3-4 defense ,and lacking the long term 5 technique DE prospects needed to take it to next level, Buckner's selection would be ideal.Buckner is a guy I couldn't help noticing on tape when I was watching 49ers 2015 first round pick Arik Armstead. He has similar gigantic dimensions, but was a much more productive player than Armstead on film.
14.NEW ORLEANS - LAQUAN TREADWELL - WR - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ANDRE JOHNSON - COLTS
Drew Brees tends to miss high when his throws are off the mark, and that's why Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham have been so valuable to him over the years in New Orleans. That is also why 5"10" Brandin Cooks hasn't worked out for them as well as they hoped, and why they should either trade him, find more ways to get him open in space, or permanently move him to the slot . So it stands to reason that if they are going to get Brees a new potential receiver he needs to either be tall ,or a good leaper. Williams looks like he has finally shaken the rust off and is showing he is the same talent he was before a serious leg injury. He is also currently the best bet at WR to be a top 5 pick in this draft if he a receiver needy team is picking that high.
15.NEW YORK GIANTS - **JOSH DOCTSON - WR - TCUNFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AJ GREEN - BENGALSIt's become apparent that the Giants need another receiver to take the double (and sometimes even triple) teams away from Beckham. With the near constant injury problems of Victor Cruz, the inconsistency & impending free agency of Rueben Randle, and Beckham's own injury woes ,Eli is consistently running out of viable targets. Doctson just keeps getting better. He has great hands, good speed, length, and the ability to win the jump ball. He can be the guy they need.
16.ST. LOUIS - TRE'DAVIOUS WHITE - CB - LSU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOHNATHAN JOSEPH - TEXANS
Both of the rams starting corners are free agents after the season and it's doubtful they resign both. White has displayed great feet and shown a penchant for disrupting passes at LSU. He was also the player who covered Amari Cooper better than anyone in 2014.
17.BUFFALO - SCOOBY WRIGHT - LB - ARIZONA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JULIAN PETERSON - retired
Preston Brown is good at taking on blocks and stuffing the run, but he is just OK in coverage & as a pass rusher. Also, he doesn't cover enough ground for the exotic defenses that Rex Ryan likes to run. Wright has all that and he is also an excellent pass rusher with a penchant for big plays.He only falls this far because he has been injured twice this season.
18.PITTSBURGH - CAMERON SUTTON - CB - TENNESEE
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AQIB TALIB - BRONCOS
After the retirement and cap cuts of so many long term veterans the Steelers defense is in a transition phase. They drafted 2 smaller corners this year, but need another with more size. In that case I have Sutton as the highest ranked DB left. He is a big physical corner , and I feel he is a steal this late.
19.PHILADELPHIA - JOE DAHL - T/G - WASHINGTON ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOSH SITTON - PACKERS
Cutting Pro bowl left guard Evan Mathis has proven to me a huge mistake for the Eagles. To rectify the problem the eagles need someone agile enough to play in their zone blocking scheme, and strong enough to anchor in the pocket & get a push in the run game. Dallas is an excellent undersized college left tackle , but would probably be a better fit at left guard in the pros, especially in a zone scheme where his lack of bulk won't be a big liability in the run game. He can also play left tackle if soon to be 34 year old Jason Peters goes down again . That makes this an even better fit.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOSH SITTON - PACKERS
Cutting Pro bowl left guard Evan Mathis has proven to me a huge mistake for the Eagles. To rectify the problem the eagles need someone agile enough to play in their zone blocking scheme, and strong enough to anchor in the pocket & get a push in the run game. Dallas is an excellent undersized college left tackle , but would probably be a better fit at left guard in the pros, especially in a zone scheme where his lack of bulk won't be a big liability in the run game. He can also play left tackle if soon to be 34 year old Jason Peters goes down again . That makes this an even better fit.
***TRADE*** DALLAS trades their first round pick (#29) and 3rd rounder in this draft VIKINGS first round pick(#22) and 7th rounder in this draft***
20.DALLAS - (minnesota) - EZEKIEL ELLIOT - RB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - EDGERRIN JAMES - retired
I know Dallas thinks they can get by with a RB by committee approach, and with that bad ass O-line I actually agree. However, if a truly special back that fits their system were within their reach I believe they would go after him. Elliot is that back and Dallas should have some extra compensatory picks in this draft. That could entice them to part with some of their own picks, rather than pay any of their current backs big money.
21.MIAMI - SHAQ LAWSON - DE - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - BRIAN ROBINSON - VIKINGS
Cameron Wake has had a stellar career, but he will be 34 next season ,and coming off a torn Achilles. So the Dolphins might be in need of a new strong side end. Lawson has had a great season, and after the game he played against likely top 10 pick Ronnie Stanley everyone is taking notice.
22.ATLANTA - CARL NASSIB - DE - PENN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CARLOS DUNLAP - BENGALS
The falcons defense has been a lot better this year under new head coach Dan Quinn. However, they need help at middle linebacker and strong side DE. Unless they take the injured Miles Jack it's unlikely a ILB who fits their scheme will be available this late. There is someone available to fill their other need though. Nassib is a self made football stud. A former walk on with a great frame, motor, and work ethic. He excels against both the run and pass. Through week 5 he leads all college football in sacks. He has possible match ups coming soon against 3 high profile offensive tackles. Possible day 2 pick Jason Spriggs(Indiana), and 2 likely first rounders in Taylor Decker & Jack Conklin. How he does against those 3 will likely tell us if he is worth this pick.
23.INDIANAPOLIS - JOSHUA GARNETT - G - STANFORD
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DAVID DECASTRO - STEELERS
Left guard Lance Louis and center Khaled Holmes have done nothing to make me think they should be starting for an NFL team right now. Since protecting Andrew Luck should be their first priority I am hoping they will take the best interior O-lineman available. Since they took Jack Mewhort, moved him to guard in 2014, and then to right tackle this year, they could just take the best right tackle prospect and move Mewhort back to left guard. If they just take a worthy offensive lineman of any kind I am sure Luck would be happy. After they wasted their first rounder on a poor mans TY Hilton this year,and then signed Hilton to a long term deal anyway, who knows what they are thinking. I suspect GM Ryan Grigson will be fired after the season, and smarter personnel decisions will start being made right away.I will give them the benefit of the doubt for now, and assume they do fire him. Garnett plays in virtually the same offense at Stanford , and could be a plug & play day one starter.
24.NEW YORK JETS - EMMANUEL OGBAH - DE - OKLAHOMA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - EZEKIEL ANSAH - LIONS
Every team in the AFC East except the patriots got better this off season, but the Patriots still have Brady and Belichick ,so they will probably still be in contention for the division title. The Jets were a team with a good defense and bad offense last year, and I was expecting it to be the same this year despite more weapons on offense, until I remembered that Chan Gailey is their new OC. Gailey is a coach that plays to his QB's strengths, instead of trying to force them into his cookie cutter offense. That being said , I thought Geno Smith now had a much better chance at success as their starting QB. With his broken jaw slowing down that process , it;s really hard to see it going well enough to get them in the playoffs this season . From now on Geno should pay his gambling debts , and also avoid writing checks with his mouth that his ass can't cash , or he could piss his entire career away. The other main reason I expect them to still miss the playoffs is the lack of a significant upgrade along the O-line, and the lack of a good QB. However, all of the current starters except left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson are better as run blockers, and only center Nick Mangold is a plus player right now. Ferguson is on the decline ,and I doubt he will be worth the 8.6 plus million they would have to pay him in 2016. The Jets could save a lot of money by cutting him and upgrade the position ,but in this scenario there isn't a tackle worth this pick that fits their scheme. Of one pops up that will be the pick.However, they can upgrade one of the few weaknesses on a already good defense. Calvin Pace is still a productive player, but he is 35 and past his prime. Ogbah has the explosive burst and size off the edge NFL teams crave , and he could fill that spot.
25.CAROLINA - JERALD HAWKINS - OT - LSU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - WILLIAM BEATTY - GIANTS
Out of all the teams that pursued La'el Collins the Panthers were the one that NEEDED him the most, but he signed with Dallas so they still need a left tackle. While Michael Oher looked pretty good at LT in the pre-season ,he hasn't played well there in the regular season since his rookie year,and I still feel his best position would be inside at guard. Hawkins was LSU's right tackle last year, but he isn't the mauler most people want on the right side, and profiles better as a left tackle. Since he has moved to the left side this season (after the departure of La'el Collins )he has excelled. He has left tackle feet and is a good athlete, but needs to play nastier this year to rise up higher in the draft.He could give Cam the blindside protector he has lacked since Jordan gross retired.
26.** CINCINNATI - MILES JACK - LB - UCLA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - LAWRENCE TIMMONS - STEELERS
Since getting paid Vontaze Burfict hasn't been very healthy, and he is not a guy I would put a lot of long term faith in anyway. This defense needs a middle linebacker with a high football IQ, instincts, and the ability to excel in coverage. If Brfict returns to form jack cab also play OLB. For those who want a QB here I understand, but I expect AJ McCarrron to get a shot to win the job if Andy Dalton falters again. Only if AJ does get a shot and fails will a QB be a in play, but it's not looking likely early this season. The AFC is weak this year, Dalton looks improved so far , and I actually have the Bengals winning a playoff game as of right now. Jack was playing inside a lot more this year now that Eric Kendricks has moved on the NFL, but a knee injury ended his season. The Bengals have shown a willingness to take players who fall due to injury or character concerns. Some may have thought Jack should have returned for another year, but he has a insurance policy that pays him 5 million if he gets injured and doesn't go in the first round. That being said he had too much to lose to stay in school, and wisely let the Bruins know he was leaving for the draft . He is already a play-maker ,and has the athleticism to be a every down stud in the middle if he puts on a little more muscle. He can even fill in at running back if the Bengals suffer a rash of injuries in the backfield.
27.ARIZONA - KENNY CLARK - DT - UCLA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - STAR LOTULELEI - PANTHERS
The Cards need help on the front of their 3-4 defense. Other than their elite 5 technique Calais Campbell none of their down lineman can both hold the point of attack against the double team, and get a good pass rush. Clark excels at taking on the double team and playing with leverage. He has the ability to play both the nose tackle and 5 technique. If he can steadily get pressure on the QB this season he could go a lot higher. He is hands down the most consistent interior college D- Lineman I have seen this season on tape.
***TRADE*** WASHINGTON trades their 2nd round pick and 4th and 7th rounders in this draft to the SEAHAWKS first round pick(#28) in this draft***
28.WASHINGTON-(seattle) - JEREMY CASH - S - DUKE
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ED REED - retired
First off let me say the Seahawks should pick nothing but O-lineman in the first 3 rounds, as it's only Russell Wilson's mobility giving their offense any chance right now, and that's just sad . Watching Russell routinely run for his life almost immediately after he drops back to pass infuriates my old offensive lineman soul . Not only do I doubt they will, based on their drafting patterns I don't see them taking one in the first unless a guy they see as a starting zone tackle worth this pick falls here. Failing that happening I see them trading back and stockpiling picks to get affordable players to balance out their top heavy cap. Seattle already has around 100 million of their cap committed to the 12 highest paid players on their 2016 roster, and that's before they have even tried to resign the only possible above average O-lineman (Russell Okung) on their roster. Plus the Hawks tend to do better with their picks after the first round anyway. The Redskins safety's aren't very good, especially Trenton Robinson. Getting a guy like Cash allows them to play Dashon Goldson more in the box, where he is at his best. Cash is a complete safety who I believe can play high or low. He makes plays all over the field ,against the run & pass, and he can even cover in man to man when needed.
29.MINNESOTA - (dallas)- DERRICK HENRY - RB - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CHRISTIAN OKOYE - retired
No matter how dominant Adrian Peterson has been in the past, how genetically gifted he is, how much money they pay him, or how much rest he has recently had, he is still a 30 year old running back with a lot of miles on his tires. That means the decline could come very quickly. Henry is a perfect fit for their power running game, and is already a better receiver & blocker than Peterson is.
30.DENVER - GERMAIN IFEDI - OT - TEXAS A&M
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ANTHONY COSTANZO - COLTS
After the loss of Ryan Clady to his second major injury in 3 years I understand why some people will want a left tackle here, and if one pops up that I think might be available this late, that will be the pick. Keep in mind that Clady was the ONLY Bronco lineman I felt good about in this scheme. If they stick with the plan of running Kubiak's offense they won't be in shotgun all the time, won't have a tired defense trying to keep up with their no huddle offense, won't be able to keep defenses from subbing & getting better situation specific personnel on the field, and Manning won't have as much time to throw. I did expect them to run the ball a lot better than they have though, and they can still be a contender if some things break right, or smart adjustments are made. As of now their offense looks less than stellar, and their defense is the main thing keeping them in games. In fact the only time the offense has looked even half way decent before their bye week was with Manning in Shotgun, but a big part of that is their O-line woes. If Elway and Kubiak swallow their pride(and let Peyton run his offense)their defense is great enough to still win the Superbowl this year. Manning looked better doing it their way coming out of the bye, so who knows?. Ifedi is the next Texas A&M offensive tackle with a good chance to go in the first round, but he would start out playing left guard for the Broncos. With German's experience at both tackle and guard he can just slide to the left one spot if Clady goes down again.
31.GREEN BAY - REGGIE RAGLAND - ILB - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ROLANDO McCLAIN - COWBOYS
Clay Matthews is the kind of player that would be effective in many different roles. While he is effective as an inside linebacker the Packers certainly miss him as an edge rusher. Ragland could man the middle for the Pack, and allow Clay to move back outside. Ragland has the size to stuff blocks, the physicality to strike ball carriers against the run, and is even improving in coverage.
I don't think the Browns will be selecting yet another lineman with their 1st round pick. They desperately need playmakers. If Cook is there, he will probably be the pick. He is also from Cleveland if that matters.
ReplyDeleteI a, sure that couldn't hurt. but unless Manziel bombs when he finally takes over I think the owners attachment to him could get in the way.
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