Wednesday, September 2, 2009

2009 Fantasy Football QB Rankings

Here is our list of QB rankings. Please note, most other rankings you find on the net are done by armchair wannabees with a computer and a theory about a game they don't fully understand. Some of these guys probably never played football even at the high school level ,and the closest they ever came to touching a boob till their junior year in college was hugging their mom. That doesn't mean they can't provide some insights, just that they often lack perspective. So if you want rankings from someone who crunches the numbers AND has walked a mile in the shoes of the guys on the field this is your shot.

Alpha picks:

1 - Tom Brady - He already survived the 350 lbs of Haynesworth landing on him and he still has some of the best receivers in football. Add his poise, being second to none and he's close to a lock for 35 TDs (as long as he's healthy). 35-44 TDs 4400-5000 yds

2 - Drew Brees - The loss of LT Jamal Brown to start the season puts him clearly behind Brady at this juncture. Throw in an unsure running back stable and an unproven defense, and Drew will be required to throw the ball more than 40 times per game again if they are going to be successful. 32-40 TDs 4200-4800 yds

3 - Philip Rivers - Really came into his own last year. His young stable of wide receivers keep getting better. Tight end Antonio Gates is finally healthy. The decline of L.T. also leaves me to believe that the Chargers will be throwing the ball even more this year. 30-35 TDs 4000-4200 yds

4 - Aaron Rodgers - He proved last year that Green Bay made the right decision in letting go of Favre. Not only does he have sure handed veteran Donald Driver, but Greg Jennings has catapulted himself into one of the NFL's top receivers. Throw in young TE Donald Lee and last year's 1st round pick Jordy Nelson and Rodgers should make the jump to a top 5 Fantasy QB this season. May also run in 3-5 TDs. Passing: 28-34 TDs 3800-4200 yds

5 - Peyton Manning - If you are wondering why he's number 5, look no farther than the turnover on his offensive line. Former blindside protector, LT Tony Ugoh has lost his starting job to a man who's main skill is run blocking. Only long term center Jeff Saturday still remains from the Colts Super Bowl winning team. Furthermore, the loss of security blanket Marvin Harrison means that Anthony Gonzalez needs to step up big for Manning to have a remotely Peyton like season. He's still good for 30 TDs and he's never hurt. 28-33 TDs 3600-4100 yds

6 - Kurt Warner - The ageless wonder keeps on ticking, but you have to wonder when it's all gonna end. If he stays healthy (big if considering age and wear/tear) he could finish in the top 3 on this list. He has the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL this season, but you have to wonder if AZ with a 1st place schedule falters. Also....I can't imagine Lienert not getting a chance to play if AZ is out of the playoff race or Warner gets hurt (and Leinart produces). Make sure to get Leinart too just in case. 27-34 TDs 3600-4200 yds

7 - Tony Romo - The loss of TO won't hurt Romo's numbers as much as Dallas deciding to run the ball more this year will. The talented threesome of Dallas RBs combined with Romo's ability to throw to the open man, instead of having to force the ball to TO, will make this Romo's most efficient year as a QB. While he probably won't top 30 TDs, his real football passer rating will improve. 23-31 TDs 3600-4200 yds

8 - Donovan McNabb - I'm not sure how the Vick experiment will work out but I am sure the perennially ungrateful fan's of Philly don't deserve a QB as talented as Donovan. I think this will be the best season he's had since TO's first in Philly. The addition of LT Jason Peters will give him peace of mind and the emergence of Desean Jackson will give him a true number 1 receiver, for the first time in years. May also run in 2-4 TDs. Passing: 24-28 TDs 3600-4000 yds

9 - Carson Palmer - Always a boom or bust due to a potential injury, I expect Carson to be healthy enough to warrant Pro Bowl consideration. Add that Cinci will be behind most of the time and 25-30 TDs and 4k yards is not out of the question. Throw in 85 trying to prove he's still one of the best WRs in the game and I expect a revival from Palmer. 22-30 TDs 3200-4000 yds

10 - Matt Ryan - While his fantasy number were not overly impressive last year, he was very efficient and miles ahead of the curve for young QBs. The addition of HOF TE Tony Gonzalez and a 2nd year of his team growing together, I expect Ryan to make the leap into fantasy QB starter. 22-26 TDs 3100-3800 yds

11 - Ben Roethlisberger - Pitt is supposed to be a power running team, but Big Ben came into his own during the Super Bowl. Santonio is due for a break out year and the always reliable Hines is always there to make the tough catch. TE Heath Miller is as steady as they come and last years 2nd round pick Limas Sweed is finally ready to contribute as the Big receiver that Ben has been clamoring for. Who knows what he could do if his OL could actually protect him better, or even more importantly, if he didn't hold onto the ball so long. 21-26 TDs 3200-3700 yds

12 - Jay Cutler - QB Diva got his wish. He got traded and he got a big contract . How will he do without the likes of Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal to catch his passes? My guess is he'll still be good, but he'll spend a lot of the season being frustrated with constantly dropped passes. On the bright side, TE Greg Olsen is due for a break out year and JAY's RITCH BITCH!!! 18-25 TDs 3000-3500 yds

13 - Matt Schaub - It's a make or break year for Schaub. While we're not ready to declare him a franchise QB, he'll be given every opportunity to prove himself as one. Stud Andre Johnson is the key to Schaub's season. If I actually thought he could be healthy for 16 games I would make his possible stats a lot higher .Seemed like last year was going to be his breakout season but he got hurt AGAIN. Has played 11 games the last 2 seasons, since he is up for free agency I am willing to bet he plays 13 . If he stays healthy again and Houston actually makes a playoff run, Schaub could actually get paid like a Franchise QB. Never underestimate the greed of a professional athlete. 18-25 TDs 3000-3700 yds

14 - Matt Hasselbeck - Mid 30s QBs coming off a major injury are never someone you want to pick as your starter. However, Hasselbeck has shown in the past that when healthy he's a fantasy force to be reckoned with. The addition of TJ who's your momma, along with a possibly healthy Deion Branch and Nate Burleson, could result in Hasselbeck's return to fantasy stardom. 18-30 TDs 2500-4000 yds

15 - Joe Flacco - Another poised rookie with a chance at a break out. But, he lacks reliable receivers other than the ever faithful Derek Mason. Teams will probably be stacking 8 or 9 in the box against the Ravens, while Big Joe didn't do so well in this situation last year, I'm guessing it'll be different this season. His showing in the preseason makes me think he's due to step up in a big way and mature the way great young quarterbacks do....Highly unlikely he reaches more than 23 TDs. 18-24 TDs 3000-3600 yds

16 - Eli Manning - Will never be the Fantasy QB his brother is. Plays on a team that runs the ball first and foremost. Was definitely effected by the loss of Plaxico last season and will miss him again this season. Needs at least 2 of his young receivers to step up in a big way, just to reach 20 touchdowns again. Is usually a much better real life QB than he is in Fantasy .16-25 TD's 3000-3600 yds

17 - Brett Favre - Yes, he's an Undercover Diva (tm) but he's still Brett Favre. He never misses games due to injury and with a running game that is second to none, he should see a lot of single coverages down the field . If he made it to camp on time, I would rank him in the top 10. But, expect him to take a while to get used to the offense's terminology in Minn. 15-25 TDs 3000-3700 yds

18 - David Gerard - The addition of future HOFer Torry Holt will finally give Gerard a receiver that knows what he's doing. Former 1st round bust Troy Williamson needs to prove he can actually catch the ball in a real regular season game to even justify this ranking. Call me a sucker for the underdog. 15-20 TDs 2800-3300 yds

19 - Trent Edwards - Despite being the biggest tool in the NFL, TO still makes quarterbacks better in his first season with them. At the very least, Owens joining the team should open up 1 on 1 coverage to perennial deep threat Lee Evans. If healthy, should throw 20 TDs, but beware the TO meltdown when Buffalo keeps losing and TO isn't getting the ball as much as he wants. He could destroy Buffalo's season , Edwards confidence , or both in a flash. 15-21 TDs 2500-3500 yds

20 - Matt Cassel - New coach Todd Haley has worked wonders with other QBs in the past. Expect an adjustment period as Cassel is learning a new offense. However, wide receiver Dwayne Bowe is ready to come into his own this year. Cassel is probably a better candidate for a second half break out after he adjust to the new offense. Don't expect his numbers to look as good as last year (No Moss or Welker). But, a solid number 2 QB. 14 - 21 TD's 2800-3400 yds

- Info 4 Alphas Team

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