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Monday, May 19, 2014

2015 NFL MOCK DRAFT-5-19-14

The season hasn't even started yet and we are already thinking about 2015 .This here is the most Houdini-like prognisticative effort in the world. Predicting not only a draft but a draft order a year away.My guess right now is it's a Saint vs Broncos Superbowl . We also predict Oakland ,the, Carolina, Jacksonville, and Tennessee will be in the hunt for the #1 pick. 

1.OAK
-MARCUS MARIOTA-QB-OREGON-My guess is GM Reggie McKenzie gets fired despite an excellent draft. They spent too much money and overpaid for too many way past their prime players. They probably should give Derek Carr at least 1 more year at QB to see if he's the guy , but new GM's and coaches are famous for wanting their own guy. So I'm gonna say they trade Carr unless he lights it up late in the season, and take the best QB in the draft. Right now I think that's Mariota.
2.CAR-CEDRICK OGBUEHI-OT-TEXAS A&M-Jordan Gross retiring seems to have caught the Panthers by surprise, and they didn't do much to remedy it in the draft. Their plan to move Byron Bell to the left side smacks of desperation to me. Even a physical specimen like Newton can only take so many hits and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets hurt. At least they made a concerted effort to get him a better(and more reliable and supportive) receiving core. 
3.JAX-RANDY GREGORY-DE/OLB-NEBRASKA-While they drafted pretty well for the long term this year , their choices didn't exactly scream win now.  A project QB in the first round and a injured CB in the 4th makes this season ,less likely to end well.  With those 2 red-shirting ,and the underwhelming Chad Henne manning the ship for at least half the season, this year looks like a lost cause already.
4.TENN-BRETT HUNDLEY-QB-UCLA-Despite his obvious talent Zach Mettenburgers knee/back an inability to avoid off the field troubles made him free fall to the 6th round. With so little an investment in him a new top QB can easily come in to replace Jake Locker if he fails again. 
5.PITT-LEONARD WILLIAMS-DT/DE-USC-Williams is the perfect 3-4 end. Tall. long arms, strong, quick. You name it he's got it. He can rush the passer well enough to be a 3 technique when they go to nickle.. 
6.NYG-SHILIQUE CALHOUN-DE-MICH. ST-Strahan. Tuck, JPP.  Retired, a raider, not the same after back surgery. Nuff said.
7.WASH-VICTOR BEASLEY-OLB/DE-CLEMSON-If Brian Orapko can stay healthy all year the skins probably pay him , but I doubt he does. Beasley was a likely first round pick this year who returned to school. His best fit is a 3-4 OLB even if he puts on another 20 pounds this year. 
8.MIA-JAMEIS WINSTON-QB-FSU-I think Ryan Tannehill can stilL be a franchise QB but I think he goes when Philbin gets fired and the new guy wants his own QB. If Winston can stay out of trouble he can be a great pro QB.
9.CLEV-(buff)-AMARI COOPER-WR-ALA-Even if Josh Gordon comes back his actions have shown that smoking weed is more important to him than football. Can't count on him. Personally I think they should draft 2 receivers in the first 3 rounds just to be safe.
10.DALL-MARIO EDWARDS-DE-FLA.ST-Even if Demarcus Lawrence works out at one end spot the front four pass rush is the key to this defense, and aging/injured Anthony Spencer probably can't be counted on long term. Edwards was the only player I saw give #2 overall pick Greg Robinson trouble in the run game this year. He is a physical specimen that can be the next Bruce Smith if he wants it bad enough, but his motor wasn't always on this year. This team can go 5-11 or 11-5 depending on Romo's(back disc surgery!) health alone.. His over/under is 10 games to me and I'm betting the under right now.
11,.DET-IFO EKPRE OLUMNU-CB-OREGON-The lions keep drsfting corners in the 2nd round and later. This time they make sure and get an elite talent by drafting one first. 
12.HOU-BRANDON SCHERFF-OT-IOWA- Tom Savage? meh. Ryan Fitzpatrick? Nope.  Coach O'brien decides to go with a known commodity by signing free agent Ryan Mallet. However Mallett is a statue in the pocket. Maybe watching Brady move around in it has helped him some, but he will never be elusive or mobile.. The weakest link on the Texans on O-line right now is right tackle, and Scherff can help fix that.  
13.ATL-DANTE FOWLER-DE/OLB-FLORIDA-Despite it being the second largest need on their team the Falcons waited until the 4th round to draft an edge rusher. 
14.SD-PJ WILLIAMS-CB-FLA-ST-After drafting Jason Verret the chargers now have 2 for sure good players in the secondary. Even if somebody else steps up here at least one more corner is needed in today's pass happy NFL.
15.TB-CAMERON ERVING-OT-FLA.ST-Maybe Anthony Colins will surprise me and be a franchise left tackle, but I doubt it.
16.NYJ-TODD GURLEY-RB-GEORGIA-Remember when the ground and pound jets were making the AFC championship despite a crappy QB? A bruising running game was the key just as much as the defense. 
17.CLEV-TRE JACKSON-G-FLA.ST-Keep bolstering that interior line so Manziel has a pocket to step up into. 
18.CHI-MICHAEL BENNET-DT-OHIO.ST-The best 3 technique in the 2015 draft to anchor the bears Tamp 2 defense.
19.KC-BRYCE PETTY-QB-BAYLOR-Either Alex Smith takes less money or Andy Reid will replace him. Undersized & smart 5th rounder Aaron Murray looks more like a great backup to me, but in this west coast offense he does have a chance.
20.MINN-DENZEL PERYMAN-LB-MIA-A 3 down middle linebacker with a high football IQ is the missing component to this defense. 
21.AZ-MELVIN GORDON-RB-WISCONSIN-A complete every down back that can take a full load of carries that I doubt Andre Ellington can. Gordon can take it the house and is a surprisingly physical runner for his build. He hasn't shown much as a receiver or in pass pro yet, but I imagine he could do some serious damage if he caught the ball in an open space,
22.BALT-DEVONTE FIELDS-DE/OLB-TCU-edge rusher is still the one position the Ravens haven't drafted well in recent years. 
23.PHIL-SHAWN OAKMAN-DE/DT-BAYLOR-Chip Kelly likes tall guys with long arms on defense. That is Oakman to a tee. Think somewhere between Calais Campbell/Michael Johnson and you are on the the right track.
24.STL-NELSON AGHOLOR-WR-USC- In back to back years the rams have used 2 high picks on receivers. A 2nd and 4th in 2012 and a 1rst and a third in 2013. While all are still young none of them look like a #1 receiver to me , although Tavon Austin and Steadman Bailey do look like long term contributors .In 2013 they just ignored the position in the draft. Here is to hoping Nelson is the guy.
25.NE-DEVIN FUNCHESS-TE-MICHIGAN-The entire offense the Patriots want to run is predicated on 2 tight end sets . Right now even if Gronk is completely healthy for the season he is called on to block a lot , because he is far better than any other blocking TE the pats have. They shocked us all and didn't draft any in 2013. Doubt that happens this time around.
26.INDY-ANDRUS PEAT-OT-STANFOIRD-I have never thought Anthony Costanzo was meant to be a left tackle. After all the hits he took last year I bet Andrw Luck agrees,.
27.GB-HRONISS GRASU-C-OREGON-Maybe Corey Linsley works out but he seems more like a smart interior line backup to me.
28.SEA-JARVIS HARRISON-G-TEXAS A&M-They over-drafted Justin Britt this year but did little else to help the O-line. Even if he works out well Russell Wilson better keep his cardio up. 
29.CINC-JAELEN STRONG S-LSU- The  Bengals need a safety that can cover man to man. Strong is former corner who improved after moving to safety last year.
30.49ers-ERIC STRIKER-OLB/DE-OKLAHOMA-Aldon Smith is not someone I would want to count on long term.
31.DENV-RAMIK WILSON-ILB-GEORGIA-Lamin Barrow may play alright as an outside LB but I think he currently lacks the football IQ and instincts to succeed inside,
32.NO-ERIC KENDRICKS-ILB-UCLA- The saints scheme calls for fast middle linebacker that can blitz and cover a lot of ground in coverage. 

4 comments:

  1. Chicago will be running a different defense. The Tampa 2 was Lovie's. DT will still be a need, but not their biggest. I think they go S or CB.

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    1. I read the same thing, but Mel Tucker played mostly Tampa 2 looks last year, with a little more blitzing mixed in when the front four wasn't getting enough pressure. Too me Tucker and Rod Marinelli in Dallas have been saying similar stuff, but until I see new formations from them I will continue to doubt it some, Both Chicago and Dallas were badly hit by injuries on defense last season. That is the reason I believe both were so bad , not the Tampa 2. With a lot of new & healthy players I see both defenses playing a lot better no matter what schemes they run. I guess time will tell.

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  2. I think that Denver will win the SB over NO, but I agree with their pick, and your analysis of Barrow. He is more of a nickel MLB, not a three-down 4-3 MLB.

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    1. Its obvious that Denver is all in with the Peyton window being so short , but until he can show enough arm strength to stretch the field against a good defense I feel they will come up just a bit short, I really do like their free agent and draft additions though.

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