Thursday, March 21, 2013

2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT -update-3 ROUNDS

The Pro days are underway. For players who couldn't work out at the combine due to injury , or didn't due to stupidity, these on campus workouts are crucial. Others who didn't perform as well as they liked at the combine will take the opportunity to show improvement.Some will stand pat with what they have shown. Thanks to a lot of possible high 1rst round picks surprisingly staying in school this draft is the weakest in years at the top ,but it ended up strong in depth throughout. There is some strong depth throughout the draft thanks to a record number of underclassmen . With the new CBA in place expect to see draft picks being more valuable and teams willing to take more risk high up considering the financial risk isn't anywhere near as big as it used to be. Next to each player is the NFL player we feel they will most resemble in their prime if they are a hit. The comp is for on the field play only ,and the higher they are ranked the more likely we think they will reach that comparison. All the films been watched, although a triple check will be in order now and then. Players medical testing results, background checks, attitude with talent evaluators who meet them in person, avoiding any possible trouble between now and draft day, and how people with character issues come off to teams are more important than anything that happened at the underwear Olympics or in workouts now . Also keep an eye on who is and isn't in shape at pro days. Barring an injury in training a guy who shows up out of shape sets a bad precedent for his work ethic.A guy who was in shape at the combine suddenly going down hill is a sign of entitlement .Guys who were always lazy showing up in tip top shape are also a concern. Like players who underperfomed throughout their careers suddenly reaching their potential in a contract year, I just don't trust those guys! These type of things are likely to affect a players draft stock with us more than anything else now.

* Is for a player with possible injury issues.

#Is for a player with possible character or off the field issues

1.KC-LUKE JOECKEL-OT-TEX A&M-NFL COMP-JOE THOMAS-CLEV- They reversed course and stuck the franchise tag on LT Brandon Albert. However, despite being a good right tackle and having a salary around 5 million, they cut Eric Winston. This pick is a good value and fills that need. The only question is if it's Joeckel or Fisher.We figure the long term level of competition Luke has played against is the tie breaker if you want a left tackle. Fisher has showed more in the pre-draft process and is better run blocker . Unlike Joeckel or Johnson, Fisher didn't play in a spread offense. You can see him coming out a 3 point stance on a regular basis and run blocking on a regular basis.  Since there has been talk of trading Albert we are thinking they want him on the right side. Joeckels the best left tackle in the draft right now so he's the pick. They won't get a RG3 type haul for a OT though , and it's unlikely they would even get Jimmy Johnson trade chart value either. They already have their QB and # 1 WR. Bringing back Albert too just shows how willing the new regime and ownership are in spending what it takes to return to contention. I expect them to contend for a playoff spot this season.

2.JAX-SHARIFF FLOYD-DT/DE-FLA-NFL COMP-MUHAMMAD WILKERSON-JETS-Their DT play is just bad against the run or pass.Floyd improves both ,he is from Florida, and his motor could be infectious. They have Mincey and Babin on the outside now, and I doubt they have given up on Andre Branch(last years second round pick) already,so that should improve their outside pass rush . If Star gets medically cleared he could go here instead. They could also go for the elephant LB position bringing both Dion Jordan and Jarvis Jones into the mix.

***TRADE-dolphins trade 1rst rd(#12),2nd rd(#42),3rd rd(#77),there own 7th rd pick this year for RAIDERS 1rst rounder (#3)***

3.MIA(oak)--ERIC FISHER-OT-C.MICH-NFL COMP-JOE STALEY-SF-The dolphins have a ton of cap room and they are spending it, but not on Jake Long. He has been injured for 2 years and not the same dominant force because of it. Long signed with the Rams leaving the dolphins with a big hole at LT. Last years second round pick Johnathan Martin didn't even play that well on the right side, and even though he profiles better on the left side we wouldn't want to trust our new franchise QB with the guy we saw on film last season.  Fisher would be better at both positions in my opinion. Miami has a lot of picks and even after the trade they still have a pick in every round. Their GM needs to win now so he needs to pick players that can help the team this year.

4.PHIL-*DeMARCUS MILLINER-CB-ALA-CHARLES TILLMAN-CHI-Brandon Graham and Trent Cole aren't exactly the protype as 3-4 OLB's , but between them and Vinnie Curry they should be able to cover that position, logically ruling out Chip Kelly favorite Dion Jordan.They need a CB more, so Milliner is a better possibility. DRC and Nnamdi are both gone. Incoming Bradley Fletcher and Cary Willaims are both still young corners, so it's clear a youth movement is in order. Milliner is clearly the top corner in the draft and would fit right in.

5.DET-PHIL-DION JORDAN-DE/OLB-ORE-NFL COMP-JEVON JEARSE-RET-GB-Cliff Avril is a now a seahawk and Vandenbosch looks done and was released. Jordan is the most gifted  edge rusher in this class right now. With his frame ,versatility,and athleticism he could get bigger and be an elite player for a long time.He played all year (and did the combine) with a torn labrum at a high level ,and doctors have assured teams he should be healthy for the season , as he is having surgery now that the combine is over. CB is an even bigger need but the only one worth this pick was taken right before them.

6.CLEV-*JARVIS JONES-OLB/DE-GA-NFL COMP-CLAY MATHEWS-GB- Jaball Sheard regressed as a pass rusher last year and Juqua Parker is near the end, but they did sign Paul Kruger to play outside with Sheard . The medical check of Jarvis Jones has come back good and frankly he would be a better rush linebacker than Sheard or Kruger . Jones has the ability to not only play outside as a 3-4 rush linebacker , but also play the outside in a 4-3 . If Dion Jordan falls this far it could be him instead.  For the record I would take Warmack if I was them. 4 out of 5 of their starting lineman are good pass blockers, only 1 is a good run blocker, and none blow people of the ball like Chance.

7.AZ-GENO SMITH-QB-W.VA-NFL COMP-WARREN MOON-HOF RET.- The cards are claiming Levi Brown is their left tackle next year, so it's more likely they go in another direction. Geno has the arm for Bruce Arian's vertical system and the mobility to have a better chance to survive the rush than any of the QB's they have. Ignore the RG3 comparisons. He's not that type of an athlete. He is a good athlete for a QB though, but not the elite runner that Griffin is. He's mobile but is always looking to throw first. Not an elite franchise QB prospect like Luck or RG3 ,but the best in this class. If your AZ he's a lot better than what you have. Smith has a strong arm ,good accuracy when he's set, is clean off the field , is a great athlete,  and doesn't throw interceptions. Needs work on mechanics ,handling the blitz,pocket awareness, and being a more vocal leader right now. Also needs to add weight and learn a pro system, but he has the football IQ to do it.   Also needs to add weight and learn a pro system, but he has the football IQ to do it.Smith should go between picks 6-9. If he falls any farther expect a team to trade up for him in the bottom 3rd of round 1.

8.BUFF-BUFF-RYAN NASSIB-QB-SYR-NFL COMP-STEVE McNAIR (ret)- Since the Bills new coach from college needs a QB ,and his  former college QB is in this draft and already knows offense, we think they take him. This seemed like a much better 2nd round pick, or maybe even a trade up into the bottom of the 1rst, but it is the bills. They already cut Ryan Fitzpatrick, and I can' think they go into the season with Tavaris Jackson as the franchise QB.  GM Buddy Nix has already stated they are going  to take a QB and will trade up if they have to., so it wouldn't surprise me if they traded ahead of Arizona and took Geno Smith. Since he knows this offense Nassib is more valuable to this team than anyone other, ala Ryan Tannehill last year. His rookie year could be better than Tannehills in a similar situation. I would recommend they wait and trade back into the bottom of the first for him, but everyone knows they need a QB desperately, and the Jake Locker /Christian Ponder selections have set the recently set the reach precedent for QB's .

9.JETS-BARKEVIOUS MINGO-DE/OLB-LSU-NFL COMP-JASON TAYLOR-(ret)- Calvin Pace is gone and I have no idea if Aaron Maybin can be consistent. Mingo is a phenomenal athlete and fits much better as 3-4 OLB . Explosive and pass rush is his best asset. If he can be trained on more pass rush techniques, add some weight ,and go hard on every play he could be special. Watch for another trade back to replace their 4th round pick.

10-TENN-CHANCE WARMACK-G-ALA-NFL COMP-JAHRI EVANS-NO-None of the 3 guards who started for them played well last year, even future HOFer Steve Hutchinson. With this draft having so few players who are elite at their position, a guard in the top 10 won't shock us at all, and even 2 is an outside possibility  Trading down or going after a CB or edge rusher are also viable options but the best player in the draft at # 10 is a bargain, and since their head coach is a HOF guard he should realize it. The Titans already signed the best guard in free agency( Andy Levitre) but he is a better fit on the left side, and that rules out Johnathan Cooper . Warmack is a mauler that can move the pile on any side , in any scheme, on any team.
11.SD-LANE JOHNSON-OT-OKLA-NFL COMP-NATE SOLDER-COL-Another BAD O-line . 2 years ago the left side of their line was elite with Dielman and McNeil. 2 injury retirements later and Phillip Rivers is a wreck. This guy is an athlete. He started juco ball as a QB but kept growing. Then he was a TE and DE. Finally settled in as a RT as junior at OKLA, and LT as senior. Might be a small reach ,but this isn't a strong draft, He has more upside than Joeckel & Fisher, and they are desperate on the left side. I expected the new regime to be more active in free agency the o-line front than they have been. 

12. OAK-*STAR LOTULELEI-DT-UTAH-NFL COMP-HALOTI NGATA-BALT-PHIL- Pass rush is a weakness in Oakland, especially on the outside where they had some DT size guys coming off the edge. Kelly and Seymour are probably leaving ,and that makes DT their chief priority now. The raiders have more needs than any team in the draft and salary cap problems too. The trade not only gives them a lot of picks , it gives them a lot of inexpensive players, even if they didn't get full trade chart value. With Al Davis not around to muck it up this one draft could go a long way toward returning the franchise to contention. . If they cut or trade Carson Palmer Geno Smith might be the guy. Star has fallen far enough and is a steal this late if he is medically cleared.Star looked like his old self at his pro day, but until his full medical recheck in INDY on April 5th and 6th we won't know for sure how far he drops.

***TRADE-49ers Trade 1rst rd(#31),(#34) for BUCCANEERS 1rst rd(#13)***

13.SF-(tb)KENNY VACCARO-S-TEX-NFL COMP-KERRY RHODES-AZ-Not a lot of needs with the 49ers, but this fills one. The way Flacco lit them up in the super bowl ,this is necessary. Vaccaro is much better in coverage than the departing Dashon Goldson.  They have way too many picks in this draft ,with an already extremely talented roster, and need to spend them. That's even before they are awarded some compensatory picks for free agent losses. This move in conjunction with trading some more picks for Revis would completely change their defense. It's possible if one of the top 3 DT's falls that they could go in that direction, but this makes more sense.

14.CAR-SHELDON RICHARDSON-DT-MOU-NFL COMP-CULLEN JENKINS-PHIL-Carolina not only has bad run defense , but also needs leadership and toughness up the gut.. Richardson is this drafts best interior pass rusher, and will improve the run & pass defense, in addition to providing flexibility all along the D-line.

15.NO-EZEKIAL ANSAH-DE-BYU-NFL COMP-JASON PIERRE-PAUL-NYG-GB-safety, corner, OT, NT, rush OLB are all needed for their move to a 3-4. Some of those holes wil be filled in free agency. This one probably won't be.This defense was horrible last year. Ansah is a freak athlete that someone might take even higher, and  he has every skill a 3-4 rush backer could wish for.  Rob Ryans complicated scheme especially requires smart safety's that can cover. If Vacaro falls this far it's a steal.

16.RAMS-TAVON AUSTIN-WR-W.VA-NFL COMP-PERCY HARVIN-MINN-The rams have a lot of young WR talent. and claiming Titus Young and his attitude doesn't help much. However Amendola was the only one with any polish. and he is now a patriot. Austin is lightning in a bottle on the field. Running, catching, and returning are all in the toolbox.  Also he has been healthy year after year, unlike Amendola.

17.PITT-*KEENAN ALLEN-WR-CAL-NFL COMP-JORDY NELSON-GB-Not only have they lost Mike Wallace, but there is talk of the Patriots signing Emmanuel Sanders because it would only cost them a 3rd round pick. .Plaxico is back now, but he is mostly just a red zone target these days  The bigger Allen would finally give Big Ben the big receiver he has lacked since Plaxico went to the giants. Allen hasn't run yet because of injury, but he does lack the long speed the Steeler's usually prefer. So Austin if he fell this far, or Patterson/Hunter might be the guy.  Allen is more polished than them all though, and we are guessing Todd Haley would prefer him if he has any say. A trade back to acquire picks makes the most sense considering the age of some expensive players on a roster with cap problems, and the holes they already have before any cuts are even made. If Mingo or Jones fall I think they go here. Its probably too high for Corey Lemonier . Though they could trade back and fill that hole .

18.DALL-JOHNATHAN COOPER-G-N.CAR-NFL COMP-ANDY LEVITRE-TENN-The right side of the Dallas O-line needs an upgrade. There are no tackles worth this pick left in this scenario,so how about a plug an play guard? Cooper is more of a LG, but Nate Livings is a better fit on the right side anyway.Coop can also play center in a pinch. I am sure Dallas fans are sick of seeing Romo run for his life, this guy could help immediately. It's safe to say Lane Johnson would be in play if he fell here.

19.NYG-CHI-DJ FLUKER-OT-ALA-NFL COMP-ANDRE WHITWORTH-CINC-GM Jerry Reese is known for taking the best player available, or guys with big upside a year before they have to play . Martellus Bennett is gone to the bears, so TE is a possibility.  Justin Tuck being brought back means DE is no longer as big a need. If Vaccaro falls he would be likely .DJ Fluker is the pick right now because he is worth the pick and a big upgrade at right tackle. Not only will he make Eli safer, but he can help puts some push back in the giants run game.

20.CHI-#ALEC OGLETREE-LB-GA-NFL COMP-LAWRENCE TIMMONS-PITTS-Urlacher and Briggs are long in the tooth, and Urlacher still hasn't been resigned. If Warmack or Cooper fall this far either is a possibility, but Ogleteree's versatility makes this more likely. Even if they bring both of the aging LB's back  Ogletree would still be a fit because he can play the weak side this year. and then slide over when one of the others is gone. as of now the Bears are claiming Urlacher won't be back at all. Getting a top 10 pick ,who only fell due to off the field concerns, at the exact time you let go of Urlacher is serendipitous.

21.CINC-BJOERN WERNER-DE-FLA ST.-NFL COMP-DERRICK MORGAN-TENN-Starting DE's Michael Johnson and Carlos Dunlap are both in line for new contracts and we doubt they will be able to afford both.  Werner can not only chip in this season, he can also play both sides giving the Bengals more leverage. Ogletree would fit a bigger need , but he is gone in this scenario and no other MLB is worth this pick right now.

22.RAMS-(wash)-SYLVESTER WILLIAMS-DT-NC-NFL COMP-MARCELL DAREUS-BUF-The Rams have done a solid job in free agency adding Jake Long and Jared Cook. In order to get good value at a position of need the best pick is clearly Williams. He can be paired inside with last years # 1 Michael Brokers, and really improve their interior pass rush.

23.MINN-JUSTIN HUNTER-WR-TENN-NFL COMP-SIDNEY RICE-SEA-They need anyone who can take attention away from Adrian. Trading Percy Harvin while they could was wise. With his injury and attitude history they should get what they can now anyway. Harvin made it clear he didn't respect Ponder, but Russel Wilson might be able to get the most out of him.  Hunter can be paired with veteran Greg Jennings to provide a formidable starting duo.

24.INDY-XAVIER RHODES-CB/S-FLA ST.-NFL COMP-NnAMDI ASOMUGHA-PHI- They need CB help badly. Xavier ran well enough at the scouting combine ,although his other drills were a bit sketchy to me, but need will likely push him up draft boards either way . The kind of huge frame and aggression that could have him end up at safety some day. If a good O-lineman rises ,or one falls who shouldn't that should come first ,but we see them adressing that in free agency. Luck got hit consistently all season. They are a candidate to trade up for a lineman just in case they don't address it in free agency.

25.MINN(sea)-DATONE JONES T-DE/DT-UCLA-NFL COMP-JUSTIN TUCK-Jared Allen and Kevin Williams are both past their primes. The versatile Jones is a strong beastly athlete who can play inside or outside, and learn from both veterans while they are still around.

26.GB-TYLER EIFERT-TE-N.DAME-NFL COMP-TONY GONZALEZ-ATL- The ubertalented but usually disappointing Jermichael Finley should probably be cut this year . He has yet to provide a reason for paying his 4 plus million dollar roster bonus, which is due March 27th . Erifert is consistent as a receiver ,and despite not being a great blocker right now, the effort is there. He also has reliable hands, unlike Finley .They need some OT help, but I don't have any graded high enough yet in this scenario. Both starting OT's will return from injury as well ,so that might fix the problem.

27. HOU-CORDARELLE PATTERSON-WR-TENN-DEZ BRYANT-DALL-Every year we think they are going to draft a reliable # 2 to go with (and take the coverage away from) Andre Johnson, and it never happens. This is the year, as Johnson is now past his prime as well. This is the drafts most explosive receiver. He only drops this far because he didn't interview well at the combine ,and he may have the same maturity issues & football IQ as Dez Bryant as well.

28.DEN-JESSIE WILLIAMS-DT-ALA-NFL COMP-VINCE WILFORK-Neither of their starting DT's is much of an athlete. Williams is gorilla strong inside and the Australian import is a good athlete and in time  he could end up a dominant player at his position. He is still raw, but comes from a winning program, has a strong work ethic, and his best football is probably still ahead of him.

29.NE-QUINTON PATTON-LA.TECH-NFL COMP-RODDY WHITE-ATL--A outside WR is the patriots chief need, and Brandon Lloyd was just cut. Patton is reliable, smart, runs good routes, has good hands, is a solid citizen, and can even run block. Sounds like a Belichick guy. It might also help mend some fences with Brady since they screwed the pooch and let Welker leave. Danny Amendola has never shown the ability to stay healthy, which makes this even more likely. 

30.ATL-JOHNTHAN BANKS-CB-MISS ST-NFL COMP-RICHARD SHERMAN-SEA-Dunta Robinson was cut and Brent Grimes is still a FA who is coming off a missed season. Considering the nature of the injury Grimes may not be the same player even if he does resign.

31.TB-(sf)DESMOND TRUFANT-CB-NFL COMP-JASON McCOURTY-TENN-They traded their best CB last year and they need another big corner now. Rather than reach they decided to trade back in this scenario. Revis has been mentioned as a trade target as well.

***TRADE-JETS-2nd round pick(#39)-6th round pick(#169) and their 3rd round pick next season
to the RAVENS-for their 1rst round pick(#32)***

32.NYJ-(balt)-EJ MANUEL-QB-FLA-ST-NFL COMP-DONOVAN McNABB-(ret)-It's actually more likely they trade into the bottom of the 1rst round for him than wait and hope he falls.The more I think about it the less likely they might go after another USC QB. Manuel  gives the Jets a better passer than Sanchez, and the mobility and leadership of Tebow. Even if he doesn't start this season it's OK. With a Kaepernick-like year to sit and learn , he could have a Kaepernick-like impact down the road. He needs mechanical work and time to learn to reach that potential.

33.JAX- *MATT BARKLEY-QB-USC- NFL COMP-ANDY DALTON-CINC-The new Jaguars are going to  run a west coast offense ,and Barkley is a perfect fit in one. Barkley will be the odds on favorite for rookie of the year if this goes through.Yes, it's another USC QB, but unlike Sanchez this one is a 4 year starter with a high football IQ. I wouldn't be surprised if Gabbert is cut or traded right after this pick.

34.TB(sf,kc)-SAM MONTGOMERY-DE/OLB-LSU-NFL COMP-ANTHONY SPENCER-Michael Bennett signed with Seattle, and Bowers has health and jail concerns. Clayborn is also a injury concern.. It would be wise of the Bucs to make sure they not only have a DE in this draft, but that they have one who can play both sides. 


-His talent and athleticism are undeniable. If he added 20-30 pounds he would still be quick, but 6"8" 277 and running a 4.6 forty is nuts. He has the frame to play end in Chip Kelly's new 3-4 defense, and Kelly craves big players with length. I don't think he is worth this pick right now, and he may never be physical enough to play defense well, but I wouldn't be surprised if he went higher .

36.DET-DEANDRE HOPKINS-WR-CLEM-NFL COMP-PIERRE GARCON-WASH---It seems no one who plays across from Calvin Jonson produces much or for very long. Roy Williams, Nate Burleson, Titus Young, Ryan Broyles, ...etc. I thought Broyles was the perfect guy but he blew his knee out again. Hopkins is a smart, can catch, and will go after the ball. Hopkins is also a great route runner . Matthew Stafford will always be able to count on him running the right route, unlike Titus Young. When Broyles ,makes it back they will be even better.

***TRADE-DALLAS trades 2014 #1 pick # for 2nd rd (#38 ) BENGALS (through oakland) ***

37.DALL-(cinc)JONATHAN CYPRIEN-S-FIU-NFL COMP-RESHAD JONES-MIA- Gerald Sensabaugh was nothing special at either safety spot and was just cut. Barry Church is coming off major surgery , even though he did play well before being hurt last season. Last years 4th rounder Matt Johnson couldn't stay healthy. Cyprien will probably be the best safety on their roster as soon as he learns the defense.With Anthony Spencer getting franchise tagged again ,an edge rusher is probably not needed anymore this year. Unless the tag was applied to trade him. Jason Garret knows he wins this year or he's fired . Jerry Jones needs to win without Jimmy Johnson doing most of the work. Both are in win now mode. Bengals get a 1rst rounder in a better draft. .

38.AZ.*EDDIE LACY-RB-ALA-NFL COMP-MARSHAWN LYNCH-SEA-Could it be? Can the cards actually draft a RB high and he stays healthy? Beanie Wells has either been hurt or underperformed and Ryan Williams didn't look as explosive when he cam back from knee surgery. Lacy is a bell cow back who can also help in the passing game .Rashard Mendenhall wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh, and is coming off a major injury, so I doubt he's the answer either.

39.BALT(jets)TENN-MATT ELAM-S-FLA-NFL COMP-QUINTIN MIKELL-STL- .GM Ozzie Newsome always finds a way to get value. -Ed Reed and Bernard Pollard were both on the wrong  side of thirty ,had high salaries, and are no longer with the team. Elam was a leader in college and is a smart enough player to be a long term QB of the secondary. With all the losses on defense for this team they need healthy young bodies right now.

40.TENN-*TANK CARRADINE-DE/OLB-FLA.ST.-NFL COMP-SIMEON RICE(ret)-If he checks out medically before the draft , at least enough that teams believe he would be the same player he was pre-injury at the start of the season, he will go in the 1rst round. Until we know more we are guessing he starts the season on the PUP list and only plays half a season at best. Long term this guy is a steal this late ,and we won't be surprised if he is gone way before now. Kameron Wembley is up and down year to year and Derick Morgan has a sketchy injury history . A young edge rusher would go a ways toward .making the position a strength instead of a question

41.BUFF-ZACH ERTZ-TE-STAN -NFL COMP-TODD HEAP-AZ-A good TE is a young QB's best friend.  Last years starter Scott Chandler tore his ACL at the end of the season, and may not even be brought back. Ertz runs routes like a wide receiver and has great hands.

42.OAK(mia)-KEVIN MINTER-ILB-LSU-NFL COMP-TAKEO SPIKES-SD- The Rolando McClain saga is just about done, and this should cinch it. Minter will be the new QB of the defense. Minter will likely provide good play on the field without the drama off it.

43.TB-GAVIN ESCOBAR-TE-SD ST-NFL COMP-SCOTT CHANDLER-BUFF-Dallas Clark is well past his prime ,and without that consistent mid field target that Kellen Winslow had once been, Josh Freeman backslid last season. Escobar will have to work more as a blocker in this offense , but he has the frame to pull it off, and the coach to drive it in to him .

44.CAR-LARRY WARFORD-G-KY-BOBBY WILLIAMS-BAL-(kc)-A team with Newton, Williams, and Stewart needs to run the ball. Warford is a big nasty road grader that can get the kind of push that opens running lanes.

45.SD-ROBERT WOODS-WR-USC-NFL COMPO-REGGIE WAYNE-INDY-Phillip Rivers used to have reliable receivers and a reliable O-line. Both are gone now, and this draft hasn't fallen the way they would like. Woods is from right down the road at USC and can give Rivers the dependable receiver he needs to be able to count on.

46.JETS(rams)-MENELIK WATSON-OT-FLA-ST.-NFL COMP-JASON PETERS-PHIL-Their RT Austin Howard just doesn't have the feet to play on the edge ,but he is a solid run blocker . Moving Howard inside would definitely help him. Watson is an aggressive strong run blocker, with the athletic ability to be an upgrade as a pass blocker, and the long term answer at right tackle. He also is raw , new to football, and a wild card in this draft. If Chris Faulk can show he's healthy by the time the draft roles around then he would go here instead.

***TRADE- 49ERS trade 2nd rd(61), 3rd rd(#93)and their own 6th and 7th round picks in this draft

for Dallas 2nd round pick(#47)***

47.SF-(dall)JHONATHON HANKINS-DT-OH ST.-KEVIN WILLIAMS-MINN-The 49ers need a new nose tackle to replace Isacc Sopoaga and infuse some youth into their D-Line. Justin Smith and Ray Mcdonald can set a great example for this giant, and hopefully inspire him to get in better shape . It wasn't that long ago when Hankins was considered an easy top 15 pick.


48.PITT-DET-AURTHUR BROWN-LB-KAN ST-NFL COMP-JON BEASON-CAR-Larry Foote was a liabilty last season, so a ILB is a definite need. This is a perfect fit. Browns recent weight gain now makes him available to 3-4 teams too. He is strong in coverage and is a 3 down LB in either defense. Pairing him with Lawrence Timmons makes them a pair to potentially rival Willis/Bowman and Lee/Carter as the leagues best inside LB duos.

49.NYG-BW WEBB-CT.WILL&MARY-NFL COMP-TRAMON WILLIAMS-GB- The giants lose defensive backs like a little kid with marbles. Almost every DB on the NYG roster is coming off injury, a possible cap casualty, is in some state of free agency, or some combination thereof. Both Terrell Thomas and Corey Webster took pay cuts to stay but with their injury history's the G-men still need more corners.,

50.CHI-KAWANN SHORT-DT-PURDUE-NFL COMP-ANTONIO GARAY-SD- Melton received the franchise tag , but hasn't signed a long term deal yet. Short has top 15 talent but spending some time next to a guy with a motor like Melton can only help him.

51.WASH-JUSTIN PUGH-G-SYR-NFL COMP-ERIC WINSTON-KC-RT has been a weakness for Washington ever since they traded for Jamall Brown. He immediately showed why the saints were willing to let the former Pro Bowler go ,and has been regularly hurt since then. If Pugh's arms were 34 inches long he would be a first round pick this year . As it is his feet are left tackle ready. In the zone scheme the Redskins run a technician like him is invaluable. Whether he ends up at RT or as a guard is the question, but his arms are too short to man the blindside. The recently cut Eric Winston would be the ideal pickup for them, and they could go a different way here, but the cap penalty the league stuck them with makes that unlikely.

52.MINN-SIO MOORE-LB-UCONN-NFL COMP-JEROD MAYO-NE -Jaspar Brinkley and Erin Henderson both had subpar years last season.  Moore can play both of their positions and can team with Chad Greenway to give them 2 LB's that can cover a lot of ground in both the run and pass games.

53.CINC-*GEOVANI BERNARD-RB-N.CAR-NFL COMP-CJ SPILLER-BUFF- Bernard is a speedy playmaker that can help open up the offense.The Lawfirm of BJGE is more of a inside grinder, but he's not much of a threat to bust a long one, or help out much in the passing game. Bernard gives them what Green Ellis doesn't.

54.MIA-(indy)-DAMONTRE MOORE-DE/OLB-TEX A&M-NFL COMP-JOHN ABRAHAM-ATL-Someone needs to play on the other side of Cameron Wake. Some of the dolphins coaching staff have ties to Texas A&M. Moore has talent, but looked lazy and out of shape at the combine. Like he hadn't been training for it. Add that he didn't do very well last season when being blocked by top OT's, and the fall was bound to happen. He did 19 reps on the bench at his pro day , but got hurt and didn't run his forty again yet. Look for his agent to give him some time to get in shape ,and then have a personal pro day to try to bring his stock back up.

55.GB-MONTEE BALL-RB-ORE-NFL COMP-PIERRE THOMAS-NO-The packs running game has been atrocious for years. Ball has the pass protection and receiving chops to fit right in the hybrid west coast/spread offense that the pack runs. After a sub par combine he had a lot of improvement at his pro day.Throw in the Wisconsin ties and he's a natural fit.

56.SEA-AKEEM SPENCE-DT-ILL-NFL COMP-KYLE WILLIAMS-BUFF-DT's .Alan Branch hadn't been resigned yet and Jason Jones is now a Lion. The more film we watch on Spence the more he grows on us. Add a good combine in the mix and we think he's gives the Seahawks some stoutness in the middle of the line ,and a penetrating up-field presence .

57.HOU-COREY LEMONIER-DE-OLB-AUB-NFL COMP-ANDRE CARTER-OAK- Lemonier needs to get bigger and play lower for an NFL 4-3, but he could be a solid starter early as a 3-4 OLB.  The loss of Connor Barwin makes this pick likely if the Texans want to keep up the pass rush that makes this defense work.

58.DENV-BLIDI WREH-CB/S-WILSON-NFL COMP-TERREL THOMAS-NYG-.Champ Bailey is still a good player despite his last game, but he will also be 35 next season. This corner played well in the senior bowl and tested well at the combine. He can also provide value in the return game and who better to learn from than the champ?

59.NE-(sf)-TERRON ARMSTEAD-OT-ARK.PB-NFL COMP-TYRON SMITH-DALL-Armstead is the raw elite athlete who took the combine by storm. The fact that he also showed good play on the field on tape, then at the east/west game, and even held his own at the senior bowl makes me believe he could go even higher. He looks and moves like a giant TE. With a year or 2 in an NFL weight room and with NFL coaching he could easily be a Pro Bowl blindside protector. He gives them options and a fallback plan in case Sebastian Vollmer doesn't come back . Belichick usually drafts early on his O-line. Both LT Nate Solder and RT Marcus Cannon started their careers on the bench. Armstead can slide in to cover injuries , or they could move Cannon inside if Armstead becomes one of their 5 best lineman.

60.ATL-*BRANDON JENKINS-DE/OLB-FLA ST-NFL COMP-ALDON SMITH-SF-Just cut John Abraham is 34 on the weak side and Kroy Bierman is nothing special on the strong-side as far as Atlantas DE's . There are rumors Abraham might be brought back at a lower price, but they still would need help outside.  Before his injury Jenkins was a probable 1rst round pick.

61.DALL-(sf)-TERRANCE WILLIAMS-WR-BAY-NFL COMP-STEVE JOHNSON-BUFF-Give Tony Romo a steady receiver for years to come. This guy is physical , runs good routes, has reliable hands, can stretch the field, was massively productive last season, and can even block. It also allows them to put Miles Austin in the slot more often and gives them another big receiver to replace often injured Austin and Bryant. Dallas moves back and gets more help this season to fill their many needs and create better competition in camp.

62.BALT-MANTI TEO-ILB-N.DAME-NFL COMP-STEPHEN TULLOCH-DET- The free-fall finally ends and he will probably end up being the steal of the whole damn draft.This is the best place for Manti . He needs a locker room that will build him up, support him, and have his back against all comers. It looked like his confidence was shot in the National championship game, and since we now know he found out the truth that would explain his bad play. Before that he was worth a top 20 pick off his play on the field this season.He should be drafted higher on his talent, but we really feel most teams will avoid him just because of the distraction he causes.

63.KC-MARKUS WHEATON-WR-ORE.ST-NFL COMP-STEVE SMITH-CAR-A deep threat and slot guy to go with the just resigned Dwayne Bowe . Steve Breaston was cut too, so a WR is must. He can also provide excellence in the return game. Andy Reid will want a WR that can stretch the field.

64.JAX-DAVID AMERSON-S/CB-N.-CAR ST.-ANTONIO CROMARTIE-JETS-The Jaguars let go of long time corner Rashean Mathis recently. New coach Gus Bradley made his bones in Seattle with big ,physical, press corners. The Jags need help at safety and CB. They also prefer big CB's which Amerson certainly is. If you watch his 2011 tape he's a top 10 pick as a corner. After spending this year trying to jump routes to break the interception record I am not sure what he is now. Last season he looked like a safety. This late he's worth the risk ,and might be able to help you at both positions. He lit up the combine so don't be surprised if he goes higher.

65.DET-*BARRET JONES-C/G/T/-ALA-NFL COMP-MAX UNGER-SEA- Gosder Cherilus is a free agent at RT and RG Stepehen Peterman was cut. The highly decorated Barrett can also play every position on the O-line if it's needed. .He comes from a winning program and is a smart player who can help wherever there's a hole

66.OAK-JAMAR TAYLOR-CB-BOISE ST-NFL COMP-TRAMON WILIAMS-GB-Those extra picks could really come in handy in the secondary. With Michael Huff being cut they will likely need at least 2 new CB's, since they also cut both starting corners last year.

67.PHIL-JOHN JENKINS-DT-GA-NFL COMP-JAMALL WILLIAMS-(ret)-To run the 3-4 effectively the eagles will need a nose tackle. The huge Jenkins is surprisingly quick for his girth . Though he will need to slim down a bit to work at Chip Kelly's pace .Isaac Sopoaga was signed to play NT as well, but he looked done last season in San Francisco.

68.CLEV-VANCE McDONALD-TE-RICE-NFL COMP-ZACH MILLER-SEA-McDdonald has displayed all the qualities of a two way tight end , and we think his best football is still ahead of him. Brandon Weeden probably deserves one more chance. A good TE is a QB's best friend and Norv Turner has always used tight ends a lot in his offense.

69.AZ-*CHRIS FAULK-OT-LSU-NFL COMP-ANTHONY DAVIS-SF-With an O-line that was bad in a biblical way last season , a future possible left tackle should be mandatory.If someone steps up and plays left tackle well it would also allow the returning from injury Levi Brown to move inside where he belongs. That improves 2 positions.  I pity their new QB unless the O-line is fixed. On the bright side Bobbie Massie and Nate Potter got valuable experience last year. I saw Faulk as a possible first rounder before his injury. If he is healthy enough to workout, and show teams he will be ready to start the season on time this year, he still might be a low 1rst rounder.

70.TENN-ROBERT ALFORD-CB-SE.LA-NFL COMP-LADARIUS WEBB-BALT-Another corner to help shore up the secondary and breed competition in the deep end of the defense. Alford is also an excellent return man .

71.BUFF-DALLAS THOMAS-G/T-TENN-NFL COMP-TODD HEREMANS-PHIL-The Bills  needs another guard to replace the departing Andy Levitre.   Thomas can also play tackle. This positional flexibility could be very useful considering the age of their starting OT's.

72.JETS-*PHILLIP THOMAS-FRES.ST-NFL COMP-HARRISON SMITH-MINN-Laron Landry is a free agent and injury prone. This guy can play either safety spot and inject some youth into their secondary.The jets play so much man that high level safety play is essential.

After his strong senior bowl we went searching for everything we could find on the small school standout, and were impressed by him on film. Add a good combine in the mix ,and we think he's a fit as a one technique next to Gerald McCoy. While he's not a great pass rusher he is stout against the run and can push the pocket against the pass.

74.SF(car)-DAVID QUISENBERRY-T/G-SJSU-NFL COMP-HARVEY DAHL-RAMS-Right tackle Anthony Davis will be a free agent next season. Local boy Quisenberry has the versatility to be able to back up every O-line position but center, With a year in a NFL weight room he might be ready to be a starter in 2014.

75.NO-DARIUS SLAY-CB-MISS ST-NFL COMP-DOMINIQUE RODGERS-CROMARTIE -DENV-The saints forfeit of their second round pick came at a really bad time. Their secondary was atrocious last season. They have added Keenan Lewis at one corner , and need another physical CB to run Rob Ryans press man blitzing scheme.

76.SD-LOGAN RYAN-CB-RUTG-NFL COMP-RONDE BARBER-TB-A corner that can tackle is paramount in the AFC west, and this guy plays the run like a safety. Quentin Jammer is a free agent and Antoine Cason is gone . Jammer has slowed enough where it's safety or nothing in my opinion. So he probably won't be brought back anyway.

77.OAK(mia)-#JORDAN POYER-CB-ORE ST. -NFL COMP-CORTLAND FINNEGAN-RAMS-Another corner and this one has a raiders attitude Al Davis would be proud of. He will also irritate every receiver he covers with his mouth.

78.STL-LE'VEON BELL-RB-MICH ST-NFL COMP-MICHAEL BUSH-CHI-Steven Jackson opted out of his deal and his career as a Ram is over. With him joining a contender in  Atlanta to play for they need a every-down back. Bell is a good fit because he is kind of like a younger poor mans Steven Jackson .

79.PITT-.*MARCUS LATTIMORE-RB-S. CAR-FRED JACKSON-BUFF-Rashard Mendenhall  wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh. Some combination of Jonathan Dwyer , Isacc Redman, and Chris Rainey should be able to hold down the fort till Lattimore is healthy. I honestly think that trio can get it done and that this is not a need pick. It's a value pick based on a huge future payoff.

80.DALL-(sf)-#*TRAVIS KELCE-TE-CINC-NFL COMP-JASON WITTEN-DALL-. If Kelce was clean off the field ,and had 2 years of solid production on tape instead of one ,he would easily be the first TE off the board. Kelce is an excellent athlete and a strong blocker with a ton of questions that need answering. Maybe the veteran Witten can wear off on his clone. Dallas has drafted 2 TE's in the 2nd round( Anthony Fasano and Martellus Bennett both blocked well though) in recent years that have failed as receivers in Dallas , and then been excellent once they went to a new team. This late he is worth the risk.

81.NYG- STEDMAN BAILEY-WR-W.VA-NFL COMP-ANTONIO BROWN-PITT-If any restricted free agent is going to be signed away for a 1rst round pick it's Victor Cruz. Even if stays around this year we doubt they have the money to keep both Nicks and Cruz. With outside WR's being more valuable we think that means Cruz is gone next season.  Bailey is one of the drafts best route runners and could be their future slot WR.

82.MIA(chi)-DEVIN TAYLOR-DE-S.CAR-NFL COMP-JASON HATCHER-DALL-Someone needs to play on the other side of Cameron Wake. Taylor has been overshadowed by Jadavian Clowney in college, but has the frame & talent to be a stud in his own right. He can stay at his current size if they go 4-3, or bulk up to play 3-4 end with his frame.

83.MINN-KHASEEM GREENE-OLB-RUTG-NFL COMP-THOMAS DAVIS-CAR-Another linebacker who can cover would really be appreciated for their nickle defense. In a division with Aaron Rodgers,Matthew Stafford, and Mark Trestman new bears offense, cover linebackers are essential. Add Greene to Chad Greenway and Sio Moore and a weakness now becomes a strength.

84.CINC-BRYAN SCHWENKE-C/G-CAL-NFL COMP-WILL MONTGOMERY-WASH-The Bengals have one of the leagues best O-lines, except at center. Schwenke can also play guard and his elite quickness and smarts would be appreciated by Andy Dalton.

85.WASH-AARON DOBSON-WR-MAR-NFL COMP-MICHAEL CRABTREE-SF-Santana Moss is past his prime, Pierre Garcon is injury prone, and Leonard Hankerson has unreliable hands. Dobson has strong hands and is a good blocker . Plus a young QB can always use more weapons. 

86.INDY-#KYLE LONG-G-IOWA-NFL COMP-CLINT BOLING-CINC-Hopefully they will address the O-line in free agency. Long is an elite talent with a lack of experience that needs to be coached up. With his athleticism & aggression it's only a matter of time until he's a starter, if he can keep his nose clean off the field, and listen to his coaches.

87.SEA- ZAVIAR GOODEN-OLB.-MOU-NFL COMP-WESLEY WOODYARD-DEN -Leroy Hill's recent arrest probably makes any decision about bringing him back easy. This former safety has the coverage chops and smarts needed for Pete Carrol's defense.

88.GB- DJ SWEARINGER-S-S.CAR-NFL COMP-TJ WARD-CLEV-With the injury retirement of Nick Collins and the release of Charles Woodson the pack is short a safety. DJ is a very smart and aggressive player to pair up with Morgan Burnett . He is probably one of the more underrated players in the draft, and once free agency shakes out we wouldn't be surprised if he went in the second round.

89.HOU-DAVID BAKHTIARI-OT-COL-NFL COMP-JORDAN GROSS-CAR-Right tackle was a problem last year ,and Bakhtiari has the athleticism to fit in their zone blocking scheme. At the very least he could be the swing tackle this season.

90.DENV-KEVIN REDDICK-ILB-NC-NFL COMP-DESMOND BISHOP-GB-Reddick has the toughness and football IQ to play inside in either front. Denver has no MLB left on the roster. DJ Williams is in his 30's ,was suspended twice last season ,and is probably gone. Denver also needs a safety to go with Rahim Moore

91.NE-*DJ HAYDEN-CB-HOU-NFL COMP-CHAMP BAILEY-DENV-Had a freak injury at practice where he tore a major vein in his heart last season .Until recently no one was sure if he would ever play again.. I think if he had played all year he would have been a easy 1rst rounder and maybe even the 2nd corner taken. Docs now say he should be ready for training camp. They could move McCourty back outside if they have another safety , but he did play well there. The Patriots go through more high drafted DB's than anyone in the league.

92.ATL-BALT-TRAVIS FREDERICK-C/G-WISC-NFL COMP-JAKE GROVE-(ret)-Center Todd McClure retired this off season. The Falcons drafted Peter Konz last year to be his successor, Frederick and Konz were line-mates at Wisconsin and both can play center or guard. With Konz having a long injury history, a alternate at center is necessary .

93.DALL-(sf)-BENNIE LOGAN-DT-LSU-NFL COMP-JURELL CASEY-TENN-Jay Ratliff has been injury prone and is over 30. Jason Hatcher was an excellent fit in the 3-4,  needs to show he can adapt to the new defense , and is a free agent next season. Logan has the first step needed to play the 3 technique in the Tampa 2.

94BALT-CORNELIUS WASHINGTON-LB/DE-GA-NFL COMP-JUSTIN HOUSTON-KC-Terrell Suggs is still a good player, but lacks explosion due to age & his repaired Achilles .Paul Kruger signed with division rival Cleveland .  Courtney Upshaw is a solid guy but will never be a top tier pass rusher. Washington has the ability but needs the technique and experience he can learn with the ravens.

95.HOU-(Compensatory)-DEVONTE HOLLOMAN-LB-S.CAR-NFL COMP-NICK BARNETT-BUFF-When Brian Cushing was lost their defense was greatly reduced. They need another guy who can QB the middle of the defense if Cushing isn't ready ,or goes down again. Holloman has the ability to play inside in either front. He also can play the weak-side in nickel .

96.KC-(Compensatory)-*#KIKO ALONSO-LB-ORE-NFL COMP-KARLOS DANSBY-MIA- Their has never been a really good player next to Derick Johnson. on the inside of the chiefs 3-4.  Alonso's character and injury history are the only reason he falls this far, and if he can stay on the field he could slide over when Johnson is past it. He should at least be an upgrade over Jovan Belcher, and comp picks are the best ones to take chances with.

97.TENN-(Compensatory)-*BRENNAN WILLIAMS-OT-NC-NFL COMP-DONALD PENN-TB-The Titans have 2 very good starting OT's but both turned 30 this season. Williams can be the swing tackle this season, and learn technique from 2 skilled veterans and coach Mike Munchak.


  1. Interesting Niner scenarios...just some food for thought, they haven't drafted a S in the 1st rd since '92. I agree GM Baalke may well do some trading up...but not so sure it'd be in the 1st rd. By waiting 'til 2nd or 3rd rd, he could use more of his later rd picks. Most experts agree the best talent pool is in the # 20-70 range. That's where I expect Baalke to do his trading up. By standing pat at #31 and #34, he could land a big DL and either a TE or CB. Phillip Thomas should be available in late 2nd, and he'd be a good fit at FS. Could be another 2nd rd pick, too, if he trades up in 3rd. With so many picks, anything can happen.

  2. A lot of what you wrote makes sense to me as well. I just happen to think they will be moving up in the 1rst round in addition to other rounds. To me the most logical question is just where. If they move up outside the top 10 Vacarro or Lotulelei are the most likely targets. They could go as high as #3 and target Dee Milliner. The 49ers have the most talented roster in the NFL in my opinion. I can't imagine that many of their 14 draft picks will make this roster, and the most likely ones to make it are the higher draft picks. 3 of the 49er picks are comp picks( one in the 4th and 2 in the 7th) that can't be traded. The ones that can be traded are likely to be moved around to cherry pick this draft and to acquire more picks for the future. I like Thomas as a center fielder type safety, and think he could be a possibility as well. However , what I believe they lack even more is a safety that can cover the slot, or TE's and backs coming out of the formation. Vacarro is the best safety in this class to fill that role. Dashon Goldson is now gone ,and why I believe he is now overpaid ,he was still the best safety on the 49er roster last year. Donte Whitner was torched for TD's all year and Craig Dahl is a much better fit as a backup. If the 49ers want to win the Superbowl the best way to do so is to upgrade the secondary that let them down in both the NFC championship, and the Superbowl.Thanks for the informed response. Take care