Tuesday, April 24, 2012


It's here. Free agency  ,pro days, visits, combines, back round ,and medical checks have taken place now .Here is how we see it happening as of today.This is not who we think they should take. It's who we think they will take. The name next to them is their NFL player comparison if they are a hit, followed by the reasons why we are giving them that player. Traded draft picks and the team they received it from are in parentheses. 

1. INDY-ANDREW LUCK- STAN- NFL COMP-AARON RODGERS- GB-The next Peyton Manning? Nope ,he's 10 times the athlete but he's got that type of football IQ.He really is that good and is the closest thing to a can't miss I have ever seen from a college QB. The worse thing a scout can say about him is that he has a good arm, but not a great one.He can make every NFL throw . Both Luck and RG3 had their pro days this week and while both were excellent nothing has changed about this pick. Indy fans should rejoice because Jim Irsay decided to les the football people run the show and keep the rebuilding process going in the right way, instead of screwing up the franchise trying to run it himself. Lets not forget Irsay tried to do it all before he hired the recently fired Bill Polian . Once Polian took over the football side of things he selected Manning and built that franchise around him. Indy has been blessed to have 2 once a decade QB's fall in their laps in a row. You would have had to actively work at it to screw this up.

2. WASH-(stl)- ROBERT GRIFFIN III-BAYLOR-NFL COM- MIKE VICK-PHIL-Good GOD! They payed a lot for him, but if anyone else besides Luck is worth it , this is the kid. In every otheryear back to 1998 he would be our slam dunk as the #1 overall pick, except for 2 guys with the last name Manning.That's only because you never pass up a sure thing for a little higher upside.Model citizen, leader, and athlete. His arm and his personality are even better than Lucks to be the face of a franchise. Best deep ball in the draft and the Shannahan offense fits him to to a tee. Expect a lot of big plays on sprint outs and waggles skins fans.His stellar pro-day just confirms everything he has showed us about him. He is a franchise QB and now Washing on will have one for the first time since the Joe Theisman.

3.MINN-MATT KALIL-OT-USC- NFL COMP-JAKE LONG-MIA-Christian Ponder is doing back flips and will probably pick him up at the airport with a hug so long it gets uncomfortable. Their LT play was atrocious last year and moving Charles Johnson inside where he belongs will help alleviate some of the sting of cutting future HOFer Steve Hutchinson. They also cut RG Anthony Herrera and brought in Geoff Schwartz from Carolina.That means 3 people on their O-line will be either new to the team, or in new positions to starts the year. So this pick is crucial to the rebuilding of their O-line. If AP isn't healed up when the season starts Kalil will have his work cut out for him, because they will have to pass a lot. We think Kalil is up to the challenge. Upside is just a smidgen less than Tyron Smith from last year but he's a more polished player coming out of college and should hold down the job for 8-12 years.

4.CLEV(MINN)-TRENT RICHARDSON-RB-ALA-NFL COMP-RICKY WILLIAMS-BALT-We assume from all the media reports that Mike Holmgren makes the right choice. We will see if they really need to give up any extra picks to get their guy, but Richardson is a beast. This helps Colt McCoy and gives them a focal point for the offense. In the AFC north you have to run the ball and you need a power back in all that cold weather. They can get a receiver later. 

5. TB-MORRIS CLAIBORNE-CB/KR-LSU-NFL COMP-CHAMP BAILEY-DENV-They finally spent a lot of money in free agency and have filled some big holes. Vincent Jackson takes care of receiver as a high priority. They signed the best Guard in football in Carl Nicks. They also overpayed gambling often injured CB Eric Wright to a big deal. That leaves RT,RB, and CB as major needs. #5 is probably too high For Riley Reiff. Ronde Barber is really old and hasn't even committed to coming back. Aqib Talib is one legal problem away from a suspension or jail. This draft has 8 elite players and they would be wise to take one. You need 3 or 4 CB's to play in the NFL now, so Claiboirne it is. He plays CB like a WR and should be a day 1 starter.I

6. STL-JUSTIN BLACKMON-WR- OK. ST.-NFL COMP- HAKEEM NICKS- NYG- It should be OT or WR. They had been linked to RT Eric Winston in free agency which makes me think they still believe Roger Saffold is capable of playing LT. I guess it's possible as he is still only 2 years in. Blackmon is a complete WR in every way except elite speed ,but he sure has run away from a lot of people on tape. With the haul they got from Washington, Jeff Fisher as head coach, and a healthy Bradford, expect this team to build safely and be a contender in 2 years.

7.  MELVIN INGRAM-DE/OLB-S. CAR-NFL COMP-TRENT COLE-PHIL -Luckily they resigned Jeremy Mincey but they need 2 starting caliber DE's and Aaron Kampmann is just about done .I would take Ingram too. he is the best edge rusher in this draft and versatile enough to move all over the field. If Blackmon slips we think they would run to the podium to get him, but he is gone in this scenario. Been hearing and reading reports about Stephon Gilmore here as well.

8.RYAN TANNEHILL-QB TEX A & M-NFL COMP-ALEX SMITH-SF-To build a contender you need a franchise QB. Tannehill is actually a good fit because he played in this offense , under this O coordinator in college.This si the only team that should be taking him in the top 10 because his learning curve is late this season instead of1 -2 years now. 

9. CAR-DT-MICHAEL BROCKERS-DT-LSU-NFL COMP-JOHN HENDERSON-OAK-They need to stop the run and Brockers already does that like a stud. He's only going to get better as a pass rusher and will probably keep getting stronger. He's not an elite athlete but he has a elite frame, and a good motor. High floor guy that fills a big need. If Coples falls here the home town connection alone may make this happen and it wouldn't be a reach if they trust his motor.

10. BUFF-WR-MICHAEL FLOYD-WR- NFL COMP-N. DAME- DWAYNE BOWE- KC- Bufallo is in win now mode, evidenced by the the sick contract they just gave Mario Williams. I The have a history of reaching and Reilly Reiff would fill a need.There are no #1 caliber WR's left unless they want to fork out another butt load of cash for Mike Wallace and give up their top pick. Their failed pursuit of Vincent Jackson makes this even more likely to us.

11. KC-LUKE KUECHLY - ILB- BC- NFL COMP- SEAN LEE-They have no glaring holes but this fills a need and is good value too. Since they run a base 3-4 and need 2 ILB's Kuechly is a possibility.He can easily move outside when they are in the-4-3. Dontari Poe is a fit to fill their hole at 3-4 NT but his production doesn't match his talent yet, and they already used two top 5 picks on D-lineman who have been solid but haven't lived up to their draft status. 

12.SEA-CINC-STEPHON GILMORE-CB-S CAR-NFL COMP-TERRELL THOMAS-CB-NYG- Every team needs more corners . Gilmore has been rising up draft boards and the more tape we watch of him the more think he might even go ahead of Kirkpatrick. Seattle already has a lot of big physical CB's and now they need one a bit quicker.

13.AZ-RILEY REIFF-OT-IOWA-NFL COMP-CHAD CLIFTON-GB -To put it nicely their O-Line is below average and if Rieff falls here I think they grab him. Their center is the only slightly above average player. They re-signed Levi Brown and hopefully will move him to RT where it's hoped he can continue the good play he finally displayed in the 2.

14.DALL-*MARK BARRON-S-ALA-NFL COMP-BRIAN DAWKINS-DEN-SS is a need and Barron is worth this pick just based on his play on tape despite his pre-draft injuries. They may have to trade up to get him though, as their is a lot of buzz about him going in the top 10 going around.. It would probably cost them to much to go after him though. With Claiborne and Gilmore gone they probably won't reach for Kirpatrick, David Decastro would be a fit as well. Most likely team besides New England to trade out of their pick. Whether it's up or down is the question.

15.PHIL-FLETCHER COX-DT-MISS ST-NFL COMP-DARNELL DOCKETT-AZ_he has been rising up draft boards for weeks and Philly needs more interior pass rush. He gives them that and injects some youth inside for them as well. With the trade of Asante Samuels and the fact that they have 2 B's who excel in man coverage what they lack is more people that can force opposing QB's to get rid of the ball quicker.

16.NYJ-CORDY GLENN-T/G-GA-NFL COMP- ANDRE WHITWORTH-CINC- ANDRE WHITWORTH-CINC- He would be a better RT and LG than either Wayne Hunter or Matt Slauson as soon as he learned the offense.They supposedly were committing to Mark Sanchez long term and a upgrade on the O-line would surely help.Of course they just brought in Tebow and Glenn would help him too. They really need another edge rusher as well.

17.CINC-#DRE KIRKPATRICK-CB-ALA-NFL COMP-IKE TAYLOR-PITT- Leon Hall is recovering from an injury, Nate Clements is in his 30's, and who knows what they will get from Pacman Jones. If Jenkins was a choir boy off the field he would probably be the 2nd CB taken. The Bengals have never shied away from character risk players , but usually they like to take those guys when they have fallen far more than their talent warrants and low ball them on a contract.

18.SD-WHITNEY MERCILUS-DE/OLB-ILL-NFL COMP-TAMBA HALI-KC- There are no #1 caliber WR's left on this team after the departure of Vincent Jackson on free agency. Unless they want to fork out another butt load of cash for Mike Wallace and give up their top pick. If Floyd falls this far I have to believe they grab him. The chargers also have big needs at OT and SS. That means Johnathan Martin, Mike Adams, Cordy Glenn,  and a host of OLB/DE hybrids are all possibles.Mercilus is the most fuid of the guys who look to be 3-4 OLB's left in this scenario.

19.CHI-DAVID DECASTRO-OG-STAN-NFL COMP-STEVE HUTCHINSON-MINN-Pair him with last years 1rst round pick (RT Gabe Carimi)and that would go a long way towards rebuilding their O-line long term.In short they need more people that can keep Jay Cutler upright.The Brandon Marshall trade filled their other big hole. It's a deep D-Line draft so they could also go there.

20.TENN- QUINTON COPLES-DE/DT-NC-NFL COMP- JULIUS PEPPERS-CHI -They need D-line help and interior O-line help badly .Since Derrick Morgan has been hurt, and may never be more than a pressure player on the edge now ,pass rusher is a need. Jason Jones left in free agency because they played him out of position at DE last year .He's a boom or bust guy though. WR and interior O-line are also needs.

21.CINC-DONTARI POE-DT-MEMPHIS-NFL COMP-KRIS JENKINS-RET-A freak of nature. A fit, agile, gorilla strong, 350 pound man who can run a sub 5 second forty . Poe is raw but very talented. He fills a need and despite the people in love with his combine workouts we feel no team is going to take him in the top 15 unless they have all their needs filled and can afford to take a risk on his potential.On tape he flashes greatness but his techniques are sloppy and lacks awareness. He's a project with a huge upside but he may take awhile to reach his potential. We don't see him as a boom or bust type because he had a solid motor on tape and is a good kid.The Bengals love high upside guys.

22.CLEV-KENDALL WRIGHT-WR-BAYLOR-NFL COMP-PERCY HARVIN-MINN- They already got their franchise RB. Now they need a WR who can stretch the field to go with big possession receiver Greg Little. Weeden is an outside possibility but we feel they can get him at the top of the 2nd or trade into the bottom of round 1 if they want him. Whoever the QB is he will have more weapons this season.

23.DET- JOSH ROBINSON-CB-UCF-NFL COMP-LEODIS McKELVIN-BUFF - No LT prospect left and they really need a CB. After rising up draft boards the whole post season this small school speedster is most likely to be the 5th CB off the board.Eric Wright was considered their top corner by many despite being repeatedly burnt while gambling in coverage. He got overpaid by Tampa bay and they should be happy he's gone for that kind of cash. Chris Houston and Aaron Berry are decent players ,but that still leaves them 1 or 2 CB's short in the majority of plays in today's NFL. They play GB's pass happy offense twice a year to boot.

24.PHIL- DONT'A HIGHTOWER- ILB- ALA- NFL COMP- LAWRENCE TIMMONS-PITT -James Farrior has been cut and this fills a big need while providing value.If Decastro or Glenn is here we would think either would be the pick but they are gone in this scenario.That would be an even better value and fill an even bigger need. So Kevin Zeitler is also has an outside chance to go here.

25. DENV-BALT- PETER KONZ-C-WISC.-NFL COMP-MATT BIRK-BALT -They have a lot of needs and Jeff Saturaday didn't come over with Peyton. He is used to a smart center who can allow him to feel safe up the middle. A run stuffing DT or a trade vack are also possibilities.

26. STEPHEN HILL-WR-GA TECH-NFL COMP-BRAYLON EDWARDS-SF - Houston inexplicably cut young in his prime stud RT Eric Winston to KC's benefit. It's unlikely their will be a RT prospect available here. Mario Williams is gone but they made the playoffs with Connor Barwin and Broooks Reed on the outside anyway. Interior zone blockers can be found on day 3 of the draft. No CB's worth the pick and Dontario Poe is gone in this scenario. It is possible they take a Alameda Ta'Amu or Brandon Thompson to play NT. WR is a need as well and Hill is also a good blocker for this run first team.

27.NE(no)- CHANDLER JONES-DE-SYR-NFL COMP-JARED ALLEN-MINN They wisely ran more 4-3 than 3-4 last year due to the personnel they had. Mercilus is a fit at 4-3 DE and has the frame ti bulk up to be a 3-4 DE in time. They lost Mark Anderson to Buffalo and Andre Carter isn't fully healed yet. An edge rusher should be taken with one of their 2 first round picks if they keep both. They signed Brandon Lloyd to a contract but still could go WR here. The smartest thing they could do is Pony up the cash for Mike Wallace and forfeit their first round pick when Pittsburgh can't afford to match it. Wes Welker still doesn't have a long term deal ,Lloyd is in his 30's, Deion Branch is too, and Ocho Cinco was a bust last year. If they don't take an edge rusher or WR with one of their first round picks then Bellichick has outsmarted hims

28.GB- *SHEA McCLELLIN-OLB/DE-BOISE ST-NFL COMP-CLAY MATHEWS-GB -The best pass rusher available in this scenario , and the best 3-4 OLB/DE hybrid available is the most likely selection. Someone besides Clay Mathews needs to apply pressure to the QB and this guy is a taller slightly less explosive version of him. Mathews sack numbers were down but he still got a ton of pressure on the QB. Taking a pass rusher here would give them pressure on the other side , and mean less double and triple teams to help Mathews sack numbers rise again. Cullen Jenkins pressure was definitely missed and D-lineman somewhere just makes the most sense. So if it's not an edge rusher a DT / 5-technique hybrid would be a fit too.

29.BALT-HARRISON SMITH-S-ND-NFL COMP-KENNY PHILLIPS-NYG  - It's definitely a need considering the age and injury history of Ed Reed  .Personally think it's a bit high for him though. They were probably hoping for Peter Konz.Ben Grubbs signed a big money deal with the saints. C Matt Birk is still playing at high level despite the fact that he will be 36 this off season. If he goes down or when he retires Konz can slide over from guard to center but he is gone here.It's possible Donta Hightower could be the pick if he's still around because he can play inside and outside.

30.SF-COBY FLEENER-STAN-NFL COMP-KELLEN WINSLOW JR-TB -Peyton, Smeyton. Alex Smith re-signed after they lost the Manning lottery. Since they just messed with his fragile confidence I think giving him more weapons is a nice apology. Michael Crabtree is more of a possession WR. They signed Randy Moss as a possible deep threat, but who knows what he has left ,and if he will even try real hard to use it. Newly signed Mario Manningham can be explosive but he is also not a guy who's going to run by the defense. Last season TE Vernon Davis filled that role and now he gets partner to stretch the field..At Stanford and last year in the NFL Jim Harbaugh proved how much he likes 2 TE sets.No WR left is worth this pick so unless they reach for somebody .

31.CLEV(trade w/NE)-BRANDON WEEDEN-QB-OKLA ST.-NFL COMP- MATT HASSELBECK-SEA-With the way they went after RG3 it's obvious they don't think Colt McCoy is the long term answer. Weeden will be 29 when the season the season starts and is ready to play now. The have been linked to him a lot in the pre-draft process and if they don't take him here we think he's a lock with their high 2nd round pick.

32.NYG-DOUG MARTIN-RB-BOISE ST-NFL COMP-AHMAD BRADSJAW-NYG-Brandon Jacobs was let go. They have a long history of taking the best player available so it could be anyone left. Martin is our highest rated player left and fills an need to pairing with the guy he reminds us of-Ahmad Bradshaw.

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