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Friday, April 15, 2016

2016 2 ROUND NFL MOCK DRAFT-4/15/16- With Trades & Player Comparisons

BOOM! KLA-BAMM! WOOSH! and other explosion-like exclamations. That's the sound of mock drafts blowing up all over the country. The blockbuster trade that saw the # 1 pick change hands has many possible far reaching outcomes, and everybody will be scrambling to get a new mock done. I am now saying QB's go 1 & 2 one way or another. I finished with all the corner backs & wide receivers tape Tuesday, and the safeties are my last position group. I will put out my overall & position rankings as soon as I am done, and the info from the combine medcal re - check comes out. It seems year after year that the NFL keeps hoping that they will slow down the influx of early entries, but their plan isn't working. A record 107 players with eligibility left entered the 2016 draft, and I think it's likely that close to a quarter of them will go UN-drafted. However most of the top 10, probably more than 70% of the first round draftees , and at least 40 plus players out of the top 100 will also be players who could have stayed in school for at least one more year. Keep in mind that some of these guys will get hurt, get in trouble off the field, and impress and/or disappoint at the combine , at on campus Pro Days, or during visits with teams.  The prospects have former or current NFL player comparisons below their name , so you can get an idea of who it is your team might be getting. The higher they are ranked the more likely I think they reach that comparison. If you don't know the player then just run a search. However, I will change them later if someone else comes to mind that I think is a better comp.  Right now I see a draft deep on the defensive side off the ball.  Interior D-line is the deepest overall position with over 10 players with at least a second round grade.So if you need a 4-3 DT,  a 3-4 end or nose tackle this is your lucky draft. Edge rusher, corner back , safety, and off the ball linebackers all have at least one potential top 10 pick. All of those positions also have at least 5 players with a chance to go in the first 2 rounds.  On offense the O-line is the strongest position group, especially at tackle in the first round, but there is depth at center throughout the draft. There is no clear cut elite franchise QB at the top of of this draft right now, even though I think it likely that 3 QB's go in the first round, and it's possible that as many 8 could go in the top 100, and at least a dozen should be drafted overall. Of the 2 QB's I currently have with a 1rst round grade on, neither of them are as highly graded as Winston & Mariota last year. Although the rest of this years draft is better in blue chip talents at the top compared to last season .The Patriots have officially been docked their number one pick from the 'Deflategate" witch hunt. Also, through some incomprehensible logic the Chiefs were screwed out of their 3rd round pick as well. Feel free to leave a comment. Agreeing or disagreeing is welcome, but please do it intelligently and respectfully. If you can't, or resort to personal attacks, I just won't post it. So here it is. Enjoy.


# Is for a player with with reported character or maturity concerns.


** Is for a player with reported injury concerns.


***ALREADY COMPLETED TRADE*** The RAMS trade their  1rst (#15) 2nd(#43) they got from the EAGLES , and their own 2nd(#45)  and 3rd rounders in this draft . Plus their 1rst and 3rd rounders in the 2017 draft  to the TITANS for their 1rst (#1) 4th(#113) and 6th(#177)rounders in this draft***ALREADY COMPLETED TRADE**





1.LA RAMS-(tennessee) - CARSON WENTZ - N. DAKOTA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CARSON PALMER - CARDINALS
This franchise needs a QB and now they can take the one they want. The Rams put a first round tender on Case Keenum ,and also have Nick Foles on the roster, and I would try to trade one of them to Denver for a pick(or picks) in this draft. It would help both teams , and give the rams ammo they now currently lack. Personally I now think Jeff Fisher is one of the most overrated coaches of all time, but the Rams brought him back anyway. Don't get me wrong , I am sure he is a nice guy. Also a skilled politician, is good at dealing with the media, and is even a good defensive mind, but his teams consistently under perform in my book . As a matter of fact ,unless he had Steve McNair at QB his teams have always under performed even when they were really talented . I am betting they take Wentz. He ran a basic pro style offense, and Fisher isn't known for running a complicated scheme. If not for an injury that cost him half the year Wentz might have been the consensus #1 QB, but we will never know now.  After leading N. Dakota St. to a NCAA division 1 championship ,he was having an even better season this year when he broke the wrist on his throwing hand. While FCS guys are harder to project ,he did play in a pro style offense , and has good tools. He returned from injury for the bowl game ,and led his team to another FCS division championship . While he didn't do anything spectacular at the Senior Bowl he was clearly the best QB there, and he has already demonstrated he can be a weapon on designed QB runs as well. He also had the guts to show up and compete unlike some others. High character person and football player. Wentz has a strong arm, and can even fire bullets on the run. Reports that he interviewed well at the combine .  He trust his arm too much , and too often is trying to force balls into windows that won't be there at the next level. Stares down his first receiver before getting rid of the ball too often, and a lot of his small school completions are picks in the NFL. He can't be an NFL starter until he speeds up both his release and his reads. That is understandable for a guy with only 23 starts at a lower level of competition.  I am not as high on Wentz as some, and think he needs to sit at least a year, but I do believe he will become a good starter in time. In this vanilla run first offense ,on a team with a good defense, he has a better chance of starting even earlier.  



2.CLEVELAND 
JARED GOFF - QB - CALIFORNIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KURT WARNER - retired
Johnny Football is finally gone, and RG3 is a brown now.  Considering that they let 4 starters leave on day one of free agency it's anybody's guess what their long term plan is now. Since Griifin hasn't shown the ability to lead a locker room ,  that he can sustain starter level play, or that he can even stay healthy, I am not counting on him just yet if I'm Cleveland. Logically I have to believe that Cleveland will likely be selecting their 3rd first round QB in 5 years, although with their new unconventional front office who knows. I'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now though. I now have them taking Goff again because Wentz is already gone in this scenario. Even though he didn't add the weight I expected before the combine, and his hands were smaller than you want from a QB,I still like Goff a smidge more personally anyway.  Hue Jackson probably gets at least 2 years to show progress . I believe Goff will start as soon as he is comfortable taking snaps from under center, and has the verbiage down enough to confidently call the plays in a huddle, unless Bob Griffin is lighting it up.  Goff has improved in all areas this season,has a good enough arm to make all the throws, and even adjusted well after a spate of interception heavy games around mid-season. Even though he isn't an elite QB prospect right now, he is still pretty good. He started 37 games in a power 5 conference, clearly improved every season, finished really strong in his bowl game, has good touch & accuracy, has the guts to keep his eyes down field & still make a good throw when the rush is bearing down on him, and makes his reads quicker than any other QB in this draft. Since the Browns do have RG3 to man the ship while the kid learns there is no need to rush him , and I think it's about 80/20 in favor of Griffin starting week one .There is no fan base and city more deserving & QB needy than Cleveland right now. If RG3 works out it's a good problem to have, and he only signed a 2 year deal anyway. Best case scenario is that Goff develops and they have a valuable trade piece in one of them. Also, Josh McCown could net them a mid round pick in this draft.They could still trade the pick ,and I think they will do so if a deal comes up they like. Or they could take Tunsil , but this makes the most sense to me if they stay put. One way or another I am now pretty confident that some combination of Goff & Wentz will be the first 2 picks in the draft. 



3.SAN DIEGO - 
LAREMY TUNSIL - OT - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TRENT WILLIAMS - REDSKINS
I know the Chargers paid King Dunlap and Joseph Barksdale to be their starting tackles, and that Orlando Franklin and DJ Fluker are being counted on to start at guard, but I have to believe they will do the smart thing and take Tunsil. There are only 4 premium positions in the NFL-QB, pass rusher, shutdown corner ,and Left tackle. Tunsil is clearly the best player in this draft, on the field ,at one of those positions. He would be a definitive upgrade at left tackle, especially as a pass blocker. Flip Dunlap to the right side, and trade one of the others San Diego. Rivers is a smart veteran QB with a quick release , but he got hit a lot last year, and you can't allow him to be hammered again this season. It's a tribute to his guts that he survived the season without a lengthy stay on the injury list. Even taking into account for injuries this O-Line was below average, and maybe they keep all 6 to have a competent backup , because injuries happen a lot in football. Tunsil had a odd start to the season. Originally coming off a broken leg , and then held out by the NCAA for allegedly receiving extra benefits before the season even started put his draft stock in jeopardy. The punishment finally ended and he started playing again on October 24th against Texas A&M. Not only did Tunsil play, he played really well against a likely 2017 top 10 pick in Myles Garrett, and continued to play well the rest of the year. He showed he is still the same elite talent I saw on tape before the injury too, and his ability to recover in the passing game on those few plays where he is beaten off the snap is extremely rare. Tunsil is a special athlete for an offensive tackle, and if he wanted to he could probably drop 25 pounds and be a pro bowl TE.Although he needs to add muscle in his legs to be more of a force in the run game he does flash a finishers attitude at times. If he avoids anymore character mishaps, or another injury while preparing for the draft, I believe he will be the first OT taken at the least. If not for the character and injury questions he would be my clear cut # 1 player in the draft. 





4.DALLAS - JALEN RAMSEY - CB/S - FLORIDA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CHARLES WOODSON - RAIDERS
Well cowboy fans, you don't have to worry about them taking a QB at #4 anymore. There are 3 players worth this pick who fill a huge need. Bosa, Jack, and Ramsey. Bosa has the off the field questions, and Jack's knee has prevented him from working out fully.That leaves Jalen Ramsey .His play on the field, lack of injury history, athleticism, upside , and personal & football character make Ramsey the cleanest pick in the draft. A year after the Greg Hardy & Randy Gregory problems I bet clean sounds really good in Dallas. With the often injured Morris Claiborne on a one year deal, Brandon Carr being just a decent starter with a big contract, Orlando Scandrick coming off a torn ACL & MCL, and the versatile Byron Jones possibly moving to safety ,this pick makes a ton of sense. Jalen is both the best corner back , free safety, and strong safety in this draft. That alone is quite a feat. He has even played some LB in the same way Arizona uses Deion Buchanon, and the Patriots use Patrick Chung.  Personally I would predominantly play him at safety over corner, but move him around a lot. Ramsey can fill either need while teaming with Jones to give their secondary some long term movable chess pieces. Also, if the Chargers don't take Tunsil this pick could be very valuable. The Ravens & Buccaneers might want to make it worth their while to move back , and still allow them to stay in the top 10. Maybe even the now pick wealthy Titans would be willing to give them #15 and 2 seconds to move down.They could then  take Tunsil , Ramsey, Bosa or even Jack if his combine re-check comes back clean.I don't know if Dallas wants to move that far down, but the Titans could certainly afford it . 




5.JACKSONVILLE -  MYLES JACK - ** - LB - UCLA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JULIAN PETERSON - retired 
Left tackle was their biggest need in my opinion, and signing Kelvin Beachum gives them an upgrade there if he is healthy, but I see them going defense because they had no problem scoring points this year. Paul Posluszny is a solid veteran player and the Jags defense is better when he is in the game, especially against the run. However he is injury prone, will be 32 next season, and the jags aren't financially tied to him. In addition Gus Bradley comes from Seattle where the versatile and athletic Bobby Wagner allowed his defense to do a lot of things Gus can't without a similar player. I am convinced that Jack can definitely be an elite playmaker as a 4-3 OLB, or in the middle of a cover 2 or 3 defense like the one Bradley runs.Once he showed up the combine at the rumored 245 pounds & had long arms  , he should be a top 10 lock . At that size 3-4 teams will think he can play inside too. How often do you see a linebacker covering the slot , AND doing it well? I even think he would have been a first round pick as a running back if he been devoted to only playing offense in college, because he is that great of a football player. He should be fine by mini-camp, and with the meniscus not generally being considered a long term problem, I think he still goes in the top 5. However, good reviews at the combine medical re-check would make it a lock , If both were completely healthy I still liked him a little more than Jaylon Smith, but Smith's recent serious knee injury makes any debate of who will be the first off the ball linebacker drafted moot. If Jalen Ramsey falls here he could easily be the pick as well 



6.RAVENS - 
JOEY BOSA - DE - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CAMERON JORDAN - SAINTS
A guy who might be the best player in the draft falling into your lap at # 6 is probably too good for Ozzie Newsome to pass up. Add that the one area the Ravens haven't drafted very well in lately is edge rusher. Then throw in that their 2 current expensive edge rushers (almost a combined 15 million dollar cap hit this year)are 32 year old Elvis Dumervil , and a soon to be 34 year old Terrell Suggs coming off his second torn Achilles in 4 years. Rarely do you see a 4-3 strong side end who is a great pass rusher, but Bosa is. He also has a great frame with long arms and the overall height and length to be a 5 technique in the Ravens hybrid defense if he added a few more pounds .Shocks blockers with his hands off the snap and stays in control of them until he wants to shed them. He is already very disruptive against the run or pass despite being a focus of offensive game plans . Not only would Bosa falling here be a steal he would give them a lot more options rushing the passer. Bosa can play either side as a 4-3 end, but he is better fit on the strong side simply because he is so stout at the point of attack. Bosa can also move inside to get all 3 guys on the field on 3rd down.  Joey also has the highest floor of any player in this draft on the field, but what I once thought was just a one game suspension for failing a marijuana drug test is now more worrisome. What has only recently come out in the media (that NFL teams already knew )is the ONLY reason Bosa could actually fall here draft day. The reason for this is instead of the previously believed rumor that he had failed a drug test for weed , he actually refused to take the drug test. That is much worse . If you flunk one test for weed, and stay clean the rest of your time through the draft NFL teams usually assume you have learned your lesson. When you refuse one they worry that you are on harder more addictive drugs. With his known preference for raves the most common fear is ecstasy, which is exactly what former Ohio St. teammate Noah Spence got kicked out of school for. To his credit once the suspension happened he moved out of his apartment , and got away from anyone who was also in that scene. Plus there is no actual proof he was ever on anything illegal. The strong veteran leadership and organizational strength in Baltimore makes me believe the Ravens would snatch Bosa up here. The only person I could see them taking instead would be Tunsil if he fell. 




7.
SAN FRANCISCO - RONNIE STANLEY -OT - N. DAME
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DUANE BROWN - TEXANS
They haven't traded Kap, and unless they do I don't see them trading up for a QB.The 49ers lost Alex Boone in free agency, and while they brought in Zane Beadles to fill one guard spot that still leaves some combination of Ian Silberman, Andrew tiller, Daniel Kilgore and Marcus Martin to fill the other guard & center spot. They all have some talent, but none have shown enough so far to lock down a guaranteed spot, although Tiller looked pretty good last year and should at least start at the top of the depth chart at the other guard spot. In addition left tackle Joe Staley is 31 , right tackle Anthony Davis is coming out of retirement after a year off, and there are rumors they are willing to trade Davis. Stanley would have been a first round pick in the 2015 draft, would be a big durable upgrade at left tackle in pass pro, and would also be an asset in the run game in their zone blocking scheme. He looked out of shape at the combine, and didn't as test as well athletically as he appeared on tape. He also faced a lot of questions about his love of football. I still like him a lot, and he did improve at his pro day, but those questions about his passion for the game could cause him to fall a bit.




8.PHILADELPHIA -(dolphins)- 
EZEKIEL ELLIOT - RB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - LE'VEON BELL - STEELERS
As the Eagles do everything they can to jettison Chip Kelly's acquisitions , and also rid themselves of long term salary commitments, they are going to take a salary cap hit this year. However, ithe trade moved them up 5 spots in the first round , and does put them in position to get one of the elite players left in the draft. Deforest Buckner and Sheldon Rankins are probably out because they just signed Vinny Curry to a long term deal, and Fletcher Cox is a guy they should try to lock up for even more money. That leaves Zeke. They already traded Murray, Spoles is going to be 33 this season, and there are rumors that Ryan Matthews is available in a trade as well. Throw in that Doug Pederson definitely wants to run the ball and it makes a ton of sense. AD is the current gold standard for NFL RB's. No Elliot doesn't have quite the explosive burst or elite long speed of Adrian Peterson, but he does have good burst and long speed. Like AD he breaks a lot of tackles, finishes his runs, and has great balance . Also, Zeke does have better vision & runs with a lower pad level than AD. Then you get to the things Elliot does well that Peterson is below average at. Elliot is a good receiver with huge hands, great pass blocker , and rarely fumbles. I have the same grade I did for both Peterson & Gurley when I evaluated them before the draft. Based on grade alone Elliot is the best player in this draft, but the devaluation of his position , larger injury risk to running backs compared to other positions, and shorter than average effective career span for most RB's make it unlikely he is that high on any ones board.Elliot is the only for sure first round back in this draft, has been extremely productive for 2 straight years, and can play in any system. I expected him to run in the mid 4.5's , but he could be that rare RB that goes in the top 10 after he ran a 4.47 ,and did everything else well at the combine. 




9.TAMPA BAY - 
SHAQ LAWSON -  ** - DE - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - WILL SMITH - retired
I would go left tackle with Conklin, but there is now a good chance that multiple veteran free agent OT's will be on the market to fill that void, and allow them to fill another big need with this pick. The Robert Ayers signing helps them, but he is more of a strong side end. Lawson had a great season against the run & pass in 2015. He is also big & strong enough to move inside on obvious passing downs. After the game he played against likely top 10 pick Ronnie Stanley everyone was already taking notice, and his steady high level production continued throughout the season. Lawson was even productive in the national championship game limping around on one leg . Shaq is a guy with a high floor , great motor, and guys with his attributes generally don't last long on draft day  . While he predominantly played on the weak side at Clemson, I believe he has the strength to hold up fine on the strong side , kick down inside on occasion, and be a movable chess piece. There is now a report circulating that Shaq's shoulder that was flagged at the combine, and he did occasionally wear a shoulder brace last year. 


***PROJECTED TRADE*** The TITANS trade the  1rst they got from the rams(#15) and their own 3rd(#64)  to the GIANTS for their 1rst (#15) rounder***PROJECTED TRADE***

10.TENNESEE-(giants)
 - JACK CONKLIN - OT - MICHIGAN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JAKE LONG - FA 
After that blockbuster trade the Titans have plenty of ammo to move all over the draft and get whatever they want.  They still have a need at right tackle, and this team wants to run the ball. That makes a throwback mauler like Conklin a good fitConklin is a former walk on and self made man who earned a starting job as a red shirt freshman. He has a big frame, long arms, a relentless motor, and proved at the combine he is a better athlete than a lot of teams think. He is a 3 year starter in a power five conference who has improved every year , and still did a very good job this year while playing hurt. He has the angry play through the whistle style that coaches love, and does it with fewer penalties than I expected. This guy is a beast of a run blocker who clearly put more defenders on the ground than any other O-Lineman in this draft, and I don't mean lower tier guys. He de-cleted or pancaked Deforrest Buckner 7 times ! .



11.CHICAGO - DEFOREST BUCKNER -DE - OREGON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CALAIS CAMPBELL - CARDINALS
With Jay Cutler playing better than expected ,and Jon Fox having an aversion to playing rookies at key positions, I am now thinking they go a different direction in the draft. Although, if Cutler's play suffers this season without Adam Gase things could change next year .The bears have plenty of needs though ,and Fox prefers to build on the defensive side of the ball .Jarvis Jenkins is a solid all around player, but he has never been the same explosive player he was in college after tearing his ACL as a rookie. He seems to be steadily declining every year, didn't even hold up against the run last season, and signed with the Jets this off season. With the Bears switch to a base 3-4 defense ,and lacking the long term 5 technique DE prospects needed to take it to next level, Buckner's selection would be ideal.Buckner is a guy I couldn't help noticing on tape when I was watching 49ers 2015 first round pick Arik Armstead. He has similar gigantic dimensions, but was a much more productive player than Armstead on film. He had an even better season this time around, won match ups against big time players this year, and must be accounted for on every play. He deserves to go higher than this in my opinion, but I am sure Chicago would laugh all the way to the bank if he was here this late. 



12.SAINTS - 
VERNON HARGREAVES the 3rd - CB - FLORIDA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TERENCE NEWMAN - VIKINGS
Brandon Browner was down right terrible last year. Usually you know you are going to get a lot of penalties with him, but also some physical quality play that frustrates receivers. Not this year, and if ever a guy was a candidate to be cut and eat his dead money on your cap ,it's him. That's really saying something considering the terrible cap situation in New Orleans
I had previously never seen a sophomore be the best corner in all of college football, but Vernon was in 2014. He got beat more in 2015, but is hasn't affected his confidence. He isn't as tall as you would like , but he challenges receivers like a much bigger man. Once he measured in at 5'10" and half" and over 200 pounds at the combine a top 15 selection is assured, and the top 10 is now very possible. He isn't just a cover guy either, as he also brings it in run support. At the very least he is a long term above average starter , who can also return punts, but polished guys like him usually go to a lot of Pro - Bowls throughout their careers.




13.MIAMI-(philadelphia) - TAYLOR DECKER - OT - OHIO ST.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JACK MEWHORT - COLTS
After a bad 2014 LG Dallas Thomas was even worse in 2015. In addition to that LT Branden Albert has missed multiple games  for 4 straight years. So while a left guard is absolutely needed, one that could at least passably fill in on the blindside would be even better..That being said it would currently be a bit of a reach to take any of the OT's left on the board here, but Decker is tailor made for their zone scheme, and could start out at guard. While I see him as a guard or right tackle he has the ability to become a NFL left tackle with a few tweaks. I expect that many offensive line coaches will believe they could make him more consistent, and there are a few plays each game where he is slow off the ball in pass protection. If he does that alone more consistently he could be a solid starting left tackle, although I see him as the best guard in the draft if you run a zone scheme. Since he can also slide over one spot to left tackle Albert goes down again, and at least give you a decent shot to survive while he's the starter, that makes this an even better fit.




14.OAKLAND - SHELDON RANKINS - DT/DE - LOUISVILLE
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JURRELL CASEY - TITANS
It's obvious by the amount of money and draft picks that the Raiders have spent on the group that they are wisely committed to making the offensive line a strength for the long haul. In the draft they have used 2nd(Menelik Watson), 3rd ( Gabe Jackson), and 4th (John Feliciano)round in 2013, 2014, and 2015 on O-Lineman. They have also spent big free agent money on Donald Penn(2014 and resigned in 2016), Rodney Hudson & Austin Howard(2015), and now Kelechi Osemele in 2016. After all that I would say they are a top 5 O-Line going onto the season.  However, they haven't spent money on their interior D-Line this off season. The Raiders need 5 techniques that can hold their ground and still get a pass rush in their 3-4 scheme. In a year full of high level interior D-Line talents Rankins has the best & most complete tape. Down in , down out, run or pass, and playing a variety of positions in multiple fronts this guy consistently made plays . He also did it 2 years in a row, and topped a really good 2014 with a great 2015. However, his build makes him look stockier than he actually is, and I doubted his listed ( 6"2" 305 lbs.)measureables. In fact I thought he would come in closer to 6 feet than 6'1' and 290 pounds than 300. Happily, I was wrong. Rankins came in at a fit 6"1"  5/8 inches tall and 304 pounds at the senior bowl weigh ins. Then he was even better at the senior bowl than I thought he would be, and also had a good combine.He is one of my elite players in this draft, and the number one interior D-Lineman if you run a 4-3 defense . He will also probably be a steal for someone , because some teams really drop players on their boards when they don't have their ideal size



15.GIANTS 
-(titans, rams)- JOSH DOCTSON - ** - WR - TCU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AJ GREEN - BENGALS
Even if Victor Cruz returns to form in the slot the Giants lost Rueben Randle in free agency.
Now that all the numbers are in, and all my tape study on the wide receivers is finished , Josh Doctson is my # 1 WR in this draft. Doctson will need to widen his route tree in the NFL, but he is definitely clutch . He also has large sticky hands, great body control, a wide catch radius, and the leaping ability to win jump balls when it matters most. If not for a late season wrist injury I think he would already have been in the first round conversation a lot more before the combine, but after the workouts & interviews he should be a lock. I see him as a #1 WR . He would be a # 2 in New York, but he could make defenses pay for doubling Odell, and they might even be co number ones in time. If this pick happens Eli Manning will be the undisputed king of the play action deep ball, but just to be clear I think Treadwell would be a better compliment to Beckham in this offense.  




16.DETROIT - 
COREY COLEMAN - ** - WR - BAYLOR
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - STEVE SMITH - BALTIMORE
Calvin Johnson's retirement leaves the Lions without a true #1 receiver. Golden Tate is a solid # 2 , but he does his best work out of the slot anyway, and Marvin Jones has only proven to be a complimentary guy so far. Coleman gets open, can catch,  and he can stretch the field. If he was 6 "2" he would be a top 5 pick , but even at 5"11" he has been unstoppable this year.He's fierce and reminds me of a young Steve Smith , and once he learns a full route tree he could be an elite weapon for Stafford. 



17.ATLANTA - 
DARRON LEE - OLB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - THOMAS DAVIS - PANTHERS
Roddy White has had a long and distinguished career. In fact he is a future HOFer in my book. However , father time is undefeated and has caught up to Roddy now, but with all the injuries among this draft's top receiver's it's not clear if another receiver will go this high after Treadwell & Coleman are gone. They brought in backup type Laroy Reynolds & brought back the often inured Sean Weatherspoon, but i wouldn't count on either to be a starter right now. For now they can get value here with Lee, and fill a need. Paul Worrilow was a liability in the middle for the Falcons, especially in coverage. Lee is a fluid, athletic, play making former DB that would give their defense a lot more range and versatility. He profiles best on the weak side right now ,but he can also move to the middle in nickel.




18.INDIANAPOLIS - 
LEONARD FLOYD - LB - GEORGIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CONNOR BARWIN - EAGLES
The Colts pass rush is a major weakness. First round bust Bjoern Werner was cut, 35 year old Robert Mathis, soon to be 34 year old Trent Cole, and soon to be 31 year old journeyman Erik Walden are what they are counting on outside next season. I am going to preface this pick by telling you it's a reach to me. Dion Jordan, Barkevious Mingo, and Randy Gregory all have the same ability. They are all explosive, highly athletic, long,  lean under powered players with a great get off. Like Jordan & Mingo before him ,the previous years tape rarely has Floyd rushing the passer off the edge, and so all 3 are a iffy projection to the NFL . Floyd's projection is based off scattered pass rush snaps last year, although he did rush a lot more the previous 2 seasons at Georgia. So yes, all are very talented, but the first 3 haven't produced as edge rushers in the NFL so far. While Floyd doesn't have Gregory's off the field problems , Gregory didn't produce a sack in the 12 games he played in last year when he was healthy. So why any team would draft Floyd in the first round when he spent most of his time playing off the ball, and not playing that well there either is beyond me. Scouts tend to want guys based on traits, and coaches want production on tape. While I am a draftnik/amateur scout,  I was a football coach first. That being said Floyd does have the talent to easily be the best 3-4 OLB in this draft, and 2 years from now people could be calling him the best player from this draft, but it's too big a risk for me. He is a great athlete that can bend around the arc on the outside on his way to the passer, and has a nifty inside counter off it, but that's all. He needs to add more pass rush moves, muscle,  and weight in general. He is too light & weak to be an every down player right now in my opinion. So even as a 3-4 OLB I think he is just a situational pass rusher as a rookie, but he does have the experience & talent to become a plus dropping into coverage if he takes to coaching. All that is why I don't have him as high as many others, but he blew up the combine, and someones gonna take him far higher than his tape warrants. Based on some of his past random personnel choices I am going to guess that guy is Colts GM Ryan Grigson . The potential Boom is huge, but so is the bust. 




19.BUFFALO - 
REGGIE RAGLAND - ILB - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ROLANDO McCLAIN - COWBOYS
Preston Brown was solid at taking on blocks and before this season he was decent at stuffing the run, but he didn't even do that well this year, and is just OK in coverage & as a pass rusher. Reggie is a violent thumper inside ,that excels at taking on blocks and filling against the run . Ragland also has skills as a blitzer, and can occasionally even occasionally put his hand on the ground & rush off the edge. While he still needs work in coverage, he is passable right now in that area, and has enough athletic ability & a high enough football IQ to develop into a positive factor there. 



***PROJECTED TRADE*** The VIKINGS trade their  1rst (#23) 4th(#121) & 5th (#160) round picks to the JETS for their 1rst (#20) rounder***
PROJECTED TRADE***

20.MINNESOTA-(jets) - LAQUAN TREADWELL - WR - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ALLEN ROBINSON - JAGUARS
The Vikings lack a true # 1 receiver. Specifically Bridgewater needs a guy he can go to in clutch situations. I think the gap between Michael Thomas and Treadwell is large enough to justify this trade up. With the Redskins & Texans both needing a receiver it makes a lot of sense to get the last guy with first round grade, especially considering how good a route runner he is. Laquon is now my #2 WR , but I still have a top 15 grade on him . Treadwell still has a chance to be the 1rst receiver off the board in this draft , and was the only one who might have gone in in the top 10 until he announced he wasn't running at the combine. I didn't think he was a burner, and expected a mid to high 4.5 forty tops, but he ran a low to mid 4.6 at his pro day. That's not good, but I will say this in his defense. A lot of guys run fast in shorts and a T-shirt and aren't good football players. Treadwell is a good football player who looks faster than that in pads, and he gets open in the first 10 yards far better than the other 3 guys I think will go in the first round .He shook off the rust in the second half of this season ,and showed he was the same physical player he was before a serious leg injury. A big bodied guy who can go up and win jump balls would be appreciated by any QB, and that's Treadwell down to his toes. He has long arms, strong hands, and is skilled at beating press coverage. He is also an angry runner after the catch, and a guy who will do the dirty work as a blocker this offense requires. He's fierce on the field, but also the rare # 1 WR who isn't a diva . 




21. WASHINGTON - 
JARRAN REED - - DT/DE - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON- TY WARREN - retired
NT Terence Knighton signed with the Patriots and DE Jason Hatcher was cut . A guy who can be productive at both positions would fit the bill, and their new GM loves high floor guys. No one in this draft holds their ground against the run inside better than Reed. He's the best 2 gapper in the draft.  and he has enough athletic ability to improve as a pass rusher. The more of his tape you watch the more you appreciate his relentless motor, smarts, and toughness.




22.HOUSTON - WILL FULLER - WR - N. DAME
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOEY GALLOWAY - retired
Deandre Hopkins is the only big threat in the Texans passing game, but without another receiving threat to focus on , it is easy for defensive coordinators to focus their plans on limiting his impact. Fuller is consistently open on tape all over the field, and the only reasons I don't have a first round grade on him is the that he had too many drops & has a lean build. I don't like him as much as many others, and think he will go higher than I have him rated, but he can back defenses off Nuk. With a little more consistency catching the ball he will be an elite play maker for a long time.



23.
JETS -(vikings)-WILLIAM JACKSON THE 3rd - CB - HOUSTON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DELVIN BREAUX - SAINTS 
The Jets are so tight against the cap that they might need to make moves just to sign their draft picks. Not to mention finding space to re-sign Fitzpatrick. Unless they trade Wilkerson, or convert some seasonal salaries into signing bonuses more cuts of necessary players could be on the way. I wouldn't be surprised if they traded out of the first round altogether .This trade saves them some cap space , gives them picks to fill holes on their roster, and still nets them a good player at a position of need. Antonio Cromartie was cut , and even if he is brought back later for less money, he will be 32 next season. Plus Revis will be 31, and Todd Bowles needs a lot of corners because he likes to blitz so much. Jackson is a tall , lean corner with explosive speed, and a knack for getting his hands on the ball. I liked him on film, but I was pissed when he sat out the Senior Bowl, although it was later revealed that it was due to injury. He looked healed up & bigger at the combine, and that great performance could see him go in the late first round now . If he had played in Mobile (and done well )he would probably be the 2nd corner on a lot of boards right now, and probably is for some teams anyway.



24.CINCINNATI - 
ANDREW BILLINGS - NT - BAYLOR
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON- ANTHONY"BOOGER"McFARLAND - retired
With Domata Peko in his 30's and being a free agent after this season the Bengals should need some help inside . Billings is massively strong,  can take on the double team , penetrate, and already has good quickness off the ball as a pass rusher. He is a raw player, but still very productive, and has a high upside . Has the ability to play any interior position in a odd or even front. If he takes well to NFL coaching & the mentoring of the veterans around him he could be elite in time.




25.PITTSBURGH 
MACKENSIE ALEXANDER - CB - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOSH NORMAN - PANTHERS
The Steelers defense is in a transition phase. They drafted 2 smaller corners in 2015, but need another with more size going forward, and they especially need to replace Antwon Blake. I wanted to give them a big corner, but after finishing all the corner tape Eli Apple is just too bad a tackler for me to give him to the Steelers. So instead I will give them a tough guy who play's bigger than he is. As a 3rd year sophomore Alexander wasn't a guy I thought would enter the draft, but after watching him blanket Sterling Shepard when he lined up outside in the Oklahoma game I understand why he did. Once I started going through some of his tape it became clear that his feet & hips are awesome. He also has confidence and knows how to get into a receivers head. He may never pick off a lot of balls, but it's hard to tell because QB's avoided throwing into his coverage. After his hamstring injury apparently wasn't serious, and he tested well at his pro day ,he's a 1rst rounder in my book. He's the most successful corner in this draft when left alone on an island , but he will need time & coaching to be a plus in this zone heavy scheme, but I believe a guy with his high football character will excel at it with more reps. He's a good tackler and a plus against the run overall. His lack of size & interceptions could cause him to fall a bit on draft day ,but in my opinion he's worth a top 20 pick  




26.
SEATTLE - JASON SPRIGGS - OT - INDIANA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - D'BRICKASHAW FERGUSON - JETS
The hawks line was bad last year , and their best (Russell Okung)lineman left in free agency This is a year after they traded Max Unger. They can't pay everybody in the salary cap era, and Seattle has obviously not made retaining veteran O-Lineman a priority, but letting your 2 best ones go in back to back years is scary.That being said the Seahawks should pick nothing but O-lineman in the first 3 rounds, but I doubt they will. I think they trade back unless a tackle they think is athletic enough to play in a zone scheme, and is worth this pick is available when they are up. Spriggs was a 4 year starter that improved every season in college. I have a second round grade on him after I finished all his tape, but he had already grown on me a lot this season. If he adds some more muscle & learns to play lower he can be great in time, and if the gargantuan Phil Loadholt can learn to bend his knees so can Spriggs.  Like Ferguson his forte is pass protection right now, and his ability to mirror is excellent. He doesn't get a lot of push in the run game , but in the Seattle zone scheme he could make more of a difference than he could for some other teams.He will rise up draft boards after a good senior bowl & combine. He even played with more leverage & knee bend then he showed on his previous game tape in mobile. He is still more vulnerable to inside moves in pass pro than he should be , but it was less of a problem in the ALL STAR game practices than it was on game film. The fact that he has recognized his flaws and is working on them should endear him to NFL teams.


***
PROJECTED TRADE*** The COWBOYS trade their  2nd (#34) and 4th(#101)  round picks to the PACKERS for their 1rst (#26) rounder***PROJECTED TRADE***


27.DALLAS -(green bay)- PAXTON LYNCH - QB - MEMPHIS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - a more athletic JOE FLACCO - RAVENS
When you have a 36 year old QB that has broken his collarbone twice in one season, and had surgery on it again in the off season,  you NEED to draft a QB. Even if Dallas signs a better veteran backup they still need someone they can develop for the future, and getting ahead of Denver & Arizona gives them a better chance of getting the QB they want. Lynch has all the talent in the world , but he needs to learn a lot before he has a chance to be a NFL starter. After he led Memphis to an upset of Ole Miss we all got excited about Lynch. A guy with his elite size, above average NFL arm strength, and athleticism for a QB is rare. Also he clearly improved all 3 years across the board on tape, and definitely turns the ball over less than the other 2 potential first round QB's.  He definitely has franchise QB tools. but his performance late in the season was disappointing, especially in his bowl game. When you have a month to prepare for an opponent you should put up your best game. Instead he looked like he was just trying not to lose, and that tentative approach in a game that was tied at half time cost them . The whole incident just raises too many questions for me to consider him to be in the same tier as Wentz & Goff . Will he prepare hard enough? Does he fold under pressure? No one expected them to beat Ole Miss, so the pressure was lower. When the spotlight was on him, and a great game against Auburn would have given him a good chance to be the first QB off the board he didn't come through.  While I gave him a late 2nd round grade once all my study was done,  I still think he gets drafted late first/early second. Lynch is a 2 to 3 year project that still has a lot work to do, but a chance to sit behind Romo for a couple of years would give him a good shot to develop into a possible franchise QB. Trading up into the first also gives the boys an extra year of team control on his contract.

  

28.KANSAS CITY - 
VERNON BUTLER - DT - LA. TECH
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TREVOR PRYCE - retired
Defensive end Mike Devito retired and the Chiefs didn't replace him in free agency.  Butler played the nose & the 5 technique at a small school, but his tape was great, and he had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. It's extremely rare for such a big man to move so well, He has the quickness , strength, size and power to play any interior position in any front, but I think his best fit is as a 3-4 DE. Butlers tape just kept getting better, and after a good Senior Bowl week I have him with a first round grade. If he learns to consistently stay low off the ball he could become a great NFL player. 





29.ARIZONA - 
RYAN KELLY - C - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOHN SULLIVAN - VIKINGS
The Chandler Jones trade can be a huge boon to their pass rush if he buy's in, and in a contract year I expect him to do so, but they traded Jonathan Cooper to get him. Coop was going to be their  center, and the Cards haven't resigned veterans centers Lyle Sendlein or Ted Larsen either. Kelly is the best center in this draft for any team in any scheme. Kelly is the best center in this draft for any team in any scheme. All people who love the draft were very disappointed when he backed out of the Senior Bowl, but I am over it now enough to admit that he is going to be the first center off the board, and is that rare center with a first round grade. He's big, smart, quick, and physical. Coupling this move with the signing of Evan Mathis gives the Cardinals a chance to have one of the better O-Lines in the league .  



30.CAROLINA - 
NOAH SPENCE - OLB/DE - #  -  E. KENTUCKY
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JABALL SHEARD - CHIEFS
Jared Allen retired , and Charles Johnson was only brought back after a pay cut. Spence is a high profile redemption story. His talent is undeniable, but his dismissal from Ohio St. after failing multiple drug tests put even a top 100 round selection in doubt until recently. Not only did he pass lot of tests this year, but he requested to be tested as often as possible, and had a good season. Then he was the best edge rusher at the Senior Bowl, and coaches at both Ohio St. and eastern Kentucky went to bat for him. Things were looking up until he disappointed both athletically & reportedly even in some meeting rooms as well at the combine. I think he would be best in a 3-4 ,as he struggles to hold his ground at the point of attack & shed in the run game, but he has a big enough frame to add a little more muscle and keep his burst & quickness and plat ass a 4 -3 end. I wouldn't take him this high, because of the past problems , underwhelming combine , and his inconsistent motor on tape. However ,this is not a good year for edge rushers , and beggars can't be choosers. 
35 year old Charles Tillman tore his ACL  at the end of the year and is a free agent. Also, franchised corner Josh Norman hasn't even signed the his tender yet.



31.DENVER - 
GERMAIN IFEDI - T/G - TEXAS A&M
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ANTHONY DAVIS - 49ers
After the trade of Ryan Clady I understand why some people will want a left tackle here. Keep in mind that Clady was the ONLY Bronco lineman I felt good about in this scheme before they lucked into Evan Mathis, and they sadly let Mathis go to Arizona in free agency. While they brought in Donald Stephenson he has never shown himself to be a reliable starter in 4 years in the NFL, and his best role is as a swing tackle. They also cut their other starting guard in Louis Vasquez, so a O -lineman of some sort should be their priority . Russell Okung on the other hand is a starter at left tackle, but he is also injury prone . In that case they will still need someone who can play tackle if Okung is hurt again. Ifedi is the next Texas A&M offensive tackle with a good chance to go high in the draft, has really long arms , and he has the nasty streak you want in the NFL.  He has already played tackle & guard,  has been especially good in the run game, and that's a big plus in this offense. German can play right tackle this year, as he is definitely more comfortable on the right side, , and maybe develop into their left tackle down the road.  He actually has the same upside of Ronnie Stanley, but isn't as good outside now.




32.CLEVELAND - MICHAEL THOMAS - WR - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MICHAEL FLOYD - CARDINALS
Unless Josh Gordon is brought back the browns lack any semblance of a # 1 wide receiver, and he was denied re-in statement again after reports of alleged failed drug test . He can apply again on August 1rst. , but I see no reason to give him the benefit of the doubt anymore.  Even if Gordon is reinstated & in the fold when training camp begins can he be trusted to stay out of trouble? Even if he does keep his nose clean is Gordon still the same great player on the field after so much time away from the game? The Browns need a bigger outside receiver that they can trust to make big plays down the field, and be a go to guy in clutch situations. Thomas is a big receiver with a wide catch radius, and strong run after the catch abilities.



33.TENNESSEE - VONN BELL - S - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DEVIN McCOURTY - PATRIOTS
With long term safety Michael Griffin being cut there is a need in the Titan secondary. Bell is another of Ohio states early entries ,and his ability to man up in nickel would be much appreciated in Tennessee. He has already showed how well he can play in the box against the run or pass , but he could polish his tackling .While he didn't play deep as often ,I believe he has the athletic ability to be an interchangeable safety, play some single high, and give them the ability to blitz more.


34.GREEN BAY -(dallas)- KAMALEI CORREA - OLB/DE - BOSE ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MELVIN INGRAM - CHARGERS
Clay Matthews is the kind of player that would be effective in many different roles. While the packers certainly miss him as an edge rusher they kept saying that they wanted to keep him inside as the QB of their defense .  They finally changed course now and say they want to move him back to the edge, but there is no clear cut ILB available in this scenario that is worth this pick. They should address that position in free agency or later in the draft .With Julius Peppers on the decline, turning 36 next season, and the chance to save over 7 million by cutting him they need an edge rusher. They resigned Nick Perry , but Mike Neal was better .and is still a free agent right now. I thought Correa should have stayed for his senior year after his numbers were down compared to 2014, because he had a good chance to be a top 20 pick next year. Either way his burst off the snap and motor will get him on the field early. Once he is coached up he could be a force on the outside long term.

  


35.SAN DIEGO - HUNTER HENRY - TE - ARKANSAS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ZACH ERTZ - EAGLES
With soon to be 36 year old Antonio Gates as the starting TE, and Ladarius Green off to Pittsburgh in free agency the Chargers have a need at the position. Henry is the best receiving TE in this draft right now, with good body control and great hands. While he needs to get stronger & polish his technique as a blocker , at least he has the frame to get stronger, and gives good effort at it on every play.   


36.BALTIMORE - CODY WHITEHAIR - G/T - KANSAS ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOSH SITTON - PACKERS
With Eugene Monroe being injured again, and his knee being a long term issue anyway, the Ravens are probably looking for a long term left tackle prospect. James Hurst has been really bad replacing Monroe the last 2. years. In fact it was his inability to hold his ground that caused Flacco to tear his ACL & MCL. This pick added to a healthy Flacco, 3rd place schedule, and another great Ozzie Newsome draft can make them a contender right away.  The loss of stalwart LG Kelechi Osemele to the Raiders in free agency, who also played some LT last year,  makes this even more likely.  Whitehair is a college left tackle who has the ability to play any offensive line spot in a zone heavy offense like this one , but I think his best fit is at guard or center.Cody could start out at left guard, and if Monroe goes down again he coud just slide over to LT. 



37.SAN FRANCISCO - STERLING SHEPPARD - WR - OKLAHOMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DOUG BALDWIN - SEAHAWKS
Their aren't enough weapons in the 49er's arsenal to give their young QB a good chance to succeed . Despite signing Torrey Smith to a big free agent deal,  Anquan Boldin is still their best receiver, and he is a free agent who mostly plays the slot. Sheppard is the best route runner in this draft, has great hands , great quickness, good long speed, and is a very competitive blocker. He could be the safety valve out of the slot that Winston needs to get to the next level.



38.JACKSONVILLE - ELI APPLE - CB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AQIB TALIB - BRONCOS
The Jags like tall corners, and Signing Prince Amukmara can help, but he is an injury prone guy on a one year deal. Also, Aaron Colvin suspended for the first 4 games the season due to PED's. As a 3rd year sophomore Apple wasn't someone I expected to enter this draft, but I have been playing catch up with some of his tape this week. He's big, fast, athletic, and aggressive in coverage.He still needs to be coached up, especially on quickly recognizing route combinations, his penchant for penalties, and work on his tackling. He's a good press man corner right now, but his timing to make plays on the ball needs work. I wouldn't trust him in off coverage right now, and he is also inconsistent in zone . However, he has a high upside and his best football should be ahead of him.




39.TAMPA BAY - CHRIS JONES - DT - MISSISSIPPI ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - LEONARD WILLIAMS - JETS
Last season the Bucs only reliable D-Lineman, not to mention pass rusher was Gerald McCoy. With the signing of Robert Ayers and drafting of Shaq Lawson they only lack an upgrade at one DT spot to completely re-vamp their O-Line. Jones has long arms ,an elite frame, and explodes off the ball when fresh. Play declined in 2014 after a promising freshman year so I wasn't expecting a lot when I finally got around to his tape. However, he has as many wow plays as any DT in the draft, but also has a lot of plays that just piss you off. It's kinda like watching Nkemdiche, but Jones got better as the season went along in 2015 , and he was a lot more productive . Since this is the year where he is eligible for the draft the fact that he turned it on now makes me suspicious. He really looked like he was actually reaching his potential later in the year, but is that because he knew he was about to get paid? Plays too high too often, and sometimes gives up if his initial move is stopped . Has the strength to play all over in an odd or even front if he could polish his technique and stay low. Motor is inconsistent or maybe his gas tank needs work.  He has one of the highest upsides in this entire draft at any position , but to me he has boom or bust written all over him. I wouldn't be surprised if he went in the first .His background check from NFL teams will probably decide that , but he bone-headedly got pulled over 6 weeks before the draft for speeding. Turns out he was driving with a suspended license as well. He can be an elite player if he commits himself to his conditioning and technique.Hopefully playing next to McCoy will bring out the best in him



40.NEW YORK GIANTS - JONATHAN BULLARD - DE/DT - FLORIDA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TYRONE CRAWFORD - COWBOYS
The pass rush was the real key to the Giants 2 Superbowl victories under Tom Coughlin, and despite DC Steve Spagnouolo's return it wasn't a good one last season. JPP already looked on the decline due to his back injury, but blowing up his hand in a boneheaded fireworks gone wrong incident only made things worse. When he finally passed a physical he surprisingly played pretty well, but I was shocked when they brought him back om free agency. Next season I think he would he might be a better fit on the strong side now. So far they have kept playing him on the right though, and it's only a 1 year deal. Well the Giants look like they plan to return to the pass rush glory days now, and are heavily investing in the D-line again. Signing Damon Harrison & Olivier Vernon to huge deals in free agency prove it. What they lack is the Justin Tuck type . Bullard is a tweener that can fill that role, and as a hybrid 4-3 strong side end and 3 technique he gives them a chance to create a lot of mismatches depending on the the situation. He is quick off the ball and has a strong motor.

41.CHICAGO - DERRICK HENRY - RB - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CHRISTIAN OKOYE - retired
Jeremy Langford and Kadeem Carey are solid RB;s, but I don't either as a bell cow RB.
Taking a back like Henry to lead their power running game would help take the load off of Cutler , and also help their defense stay off the field.The Heisman winner is big, fast, powerful, and proved he can be the focal point of an offense last year. His ability to run over , through, and away from defenses in the second half of games after they are worn down is awesome. However, after a year with around 400 touches it's probably good that they still have the other 2 backs to share some of the load in the first half of games this tear.

42.MIAMI - ARTIE BURNS - CB - MIAMI
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DARIUS SLAY - LIONS
With Brent Grimes gone and Jamar Taylor a 2017 free agent who hasn't lived up to his draft status the Dolphins need hep at corner. Burns is tall with long arms for a corner, and he is at his best in press man. Also a natural ball hawk. Smart reading QB's eyes and makes plays on the ball. On my initial 2 game watch on him I was fine with him in zone, but after finishing all his tape he is consistently too slow making slow his reads there. His technique needs work in a lot areas, but I like him anyway, and believe he will make a big jump under NFL coaching. He played his college ball in Miami , and could develop into a long term # 1 corner once he spends a year in a NFL weight room.


43.TENNESEE -(la rams,philly)- EMMANUEL OGBAH - DE - OKLAHOMA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DeMARCUS LAWRENCE - COWBOYS
The Titans are rebuilding best player available is a good idea for the rest of the draft. Ogbah has the long arms, burst, size , strength, and violent play style off the edge NFL teams crave. He also has the strength to kick inside on obvious passing downs, and has played both end spots regularly.He is still really raw and mostly gets by on talent right now. You could see that ability on display when he blew up the combine, but if he played as explosively in pads as he runs in his gym clothes he would have been a top 10 pick. If he can become more consistent with his effort & develop a more varied pass rush arsenal Ogbah could be a Pro - bowler once he gets coached up. He also took a pre-draft visit to Tennesee. 



44.OAKLAND - XAVIEN HOWARD - CB/S - BAYLOR
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TRUMAINE JOHNSON - RAMS
After being cut by the Redskins(2013 , 2nd rounder)  David Amerson was picked up by the Raiders , and last year he looked like he was finally starting to fulfill his potential. 2013 first rounder DJ Hayden has not , and no else in their secondary has stood out ,except for the retiring Charles Woodson. Howard is a tall ,strong , well built, physical, press corner. Xavien is a bit inconsistent on film, because he doesn't always track the ball well down the field, but he plays in a spread heavy conference where he is regularly one vs one outside. I thought he might be a late first rounder until his bowl game, but after that & a disappointing combine he looked more like a late 2 early 3. After Howard had a great pro day his long speed wasn't in question anymore , and although it was on a faster track ,if you split the difference he is a high 4.4/ low 4.5 guy. That's good for a big corner. If he gets his hands  on the receiver off the line he's good, but if he misses that initial punch he is prone to giving up big plays down the field.He also has a good short area burst, and gets his hands on the ball a lot, so I now see him as a solid 2nd rounder. 




45.TENNESEE-(la rams) - KENNY CLARK - DT - UCLA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - STAR LOTULELEI - PANTHERS
Best player available and fills a need. Clark was primarily a nose tackle at UCLA, but he was consistently good against the run, and significantly improved as pass rusher this year. 
He can play the nose or the 5 technique in the Titans 3-4.


46.DETROIT - KEVIN DODD - DE - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DERRICK SHELBY - DOLPHINS
The versatile Jason Jones is a free agent, so is veteran Daryl Tapp, and Devon Still will be one next year. With the Lions cap situation they don't have a lot of room to keep Jones, ,unless Megatron retires or adjust his contract. Dodd's ability to play either DE position would be welcomed. He's a one year wonder who played his best ball down the stretch, especially in both playoff games, . That worries me when a guy enters the draft with so little starting experience, but he's smart, athletic, and has a great frame.



47.NEW ORLEANS - A'SHAWN ROBINSON - DT/DE - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MARCELL DAREUS - BILLS
Even after signing Nick Fairley, who I don't think has ever lived up to his actual talent, the Saints still need help inside. Robinson tape hasn't been as good as I hoped it would be. He especially needs to get better as a pass rusher, and at consistently playing low . He is very strong  , can just shove the O-lineman into the backfield on run plays, hold the point of attack against the double team & penetrate when he's on, but he also needs to be more consistent shedding blockers. He can play all the interior positions in a 3 - 4, and would be a good one technique in a 4 - 3.  If the light comes on he is a potential Pro - Bowler . He still has first round talent, and you can tell by my comp that his ceiling is high, but I would feel better taking him in the mid 2nd round.



48.INDIANAPOLIS - JOSHUA GARNETT - G/C - STANFORD
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DAVID DECASTRO - STEELERS
Since protecting Andrew Luck should be their first priority I am hoping they will take the best interior O-lineman available. Jack Mewhort is the only dependable one, they have moved him around the line in his first 2 years , and he has played well wherever he was at. They could just take the best O-lineman available , play him where he is the most comfortable, and put Mewhort at the spot of biggest weakness . If they just take a worthy offensive lineman of any kind I am sure Luck would be happy. After they wasted their first rounder on a poor mans TY Hilton last year,and then signed Hilton to a long term deal anyway, who knows what they are thinking? I wish they had fired GM Ryan Grigson, as I feel he has mismanaged this roster for the most part. At least they wisely kept Pagano . Garnett played in virtually the same offense at Stanford , and could be a plug & play day one starter at LG, but he also has the smarts to try a move to center if they want him there.


49.BUFFALO - KARL JOSEPH - ** - SS - W. VIRGINIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - BOB SANDERS - retired
Bacarri Rambo is a serviceable player at safety but he is a free agent, and Rex Ryan loves big hitters.Joseph is an undersized safety but he hits like a linebacker, and has long arms for a guy around 5"10". If not for a injury suffered during the season I think he would have had a chance to push himself into the late first round at the Senior Bowl, but going here to a coach that would appreciate his physical style could work out better for him in the long term.
Covers a lot of ground against the run or pass. He's not as fast ,but I am now comping him to a former NFL defensive player of the year. 


50.ATLANTA - JERELL ADAMS - TE - S. CAROLINA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - GREG OLSEN - PANTHERS
The Falcons offense hasn't been the same since future HOFer Tony Gonzalez retired.
Adams is one the guys you come to like more and more with each tape you watch. He put on some muscle last off season and it really payed off in his blocking. He was underused in the Gamecocks offense as a receiver, but made plays down the seam when he was given a chance. He also had a good Senior Bowl and combine. I am not saying he will go ahead of the more polished receiver in Hunter Henry, but he is already a better blocker, and has a higher upside. Adding Sanu to the passing game wasn't nearly enough to take the pressure off Julio. Adams could open the offense for Matt Ryan ,and also be a plus to the Falcons run game.  


51.NY JETS - SHILIQUE CALHOUN - DE - MICHIGAN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KAMERION WIMBLEY - retired
Calvin Pace is past his prime and will be 36 next year. Plus former first round bust Quinton Coples was cut late in the season. Right now 2015 3rd rounder Lorenzo Mauldin is their only threat as a 3-4 rush backer. Calhoun is a long armed highly productive pass rusher who's sack production improved 3 straight years. He needs to concentrate more on his run responsibilities at the next level, but I think he would do a better job there as a 3-4 OLB for the Jets.




52.HOUSTON - AUSTIN JOHNSON - DT - PENN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - LINVAL JOSEPH - VIKINGS
Jared Crick had a down 2015 and is a free agent. They need an interior D-lineman to take some of the pressure of JJ Watt, and it would help if it was someone versatile enough to move around their front like Watt does. They also need someone who can get penetrate into the backfield against the run or pass, and win the one on ones that Watt provides. It would not only free up JJ to avoid more double and triple teams it would confuse the offense . In a normal year Johnson would have a decent chance to be drafted in the first round, but in a draft this deep in interior D-Line talent, the more highly explosive athletes are likely to go ahead of a hard working tough guy like Austin. Johnson is big, strong, has a good motor, plays low, is a hard worker, and has improved every year . He can play the nose or end and produce as a rookie.




53.WASHINGTON - SUA CRAVENS - LB/SS - USC
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DANNY TREVATHAN - BRONCOS
6th round rookie Kyshoen Jarrett was the skins best safety this year, and he is best suited to play FS. Dashon Goldosn has been a disappointment since they traded for him, and they saved 7.5 million by wisely cutting him without a dead money hit. Washington also lacks a LB who is good in coverage. Cravens can play SS and LB for them, but I think his best fit is at LB.


54.MINNESOTA - JOSH PERRY - ILB - OHIO ST
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KARLOS DANSBY - BROWNS
OLB Chad Greenway is on the decline , and even though he resigned on the cheap he isn't the above average player he once was. The Vikings have drafted Anthony Barr & Eric Kendricks in the last 2 drafts and it has payed off. Drafting Perry to play the middle would allow Kendricks to play outside more and upgrade 2 positions. Perry has ideal measurables , and if he didn't play defense with a whole bunch of more high profile draft prospects his name would be more well known. The Vikes could run a lot more Tampa 2 with him in the game because the 6"4" Perry is ideal for obscuring passing lanes in the middle of that defense.  


55.CINCINNATI - BRAXTON MILLER  - ** - WR - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - a bigger PERCY HARVIN - BILLS
The Bengals have already lost Marvin Jones & Mohamed Sanu in free agency. Miller is a former QB who was the Big 10 player of the year at the position. He surprised me with his hands and catch radius this year on tape. He also had a good week of practice at the Senior Bowl. Miller can not only develop into a good receiver in a couple of years, but out of the gate he can run end arounds , jet sweeps, throw the ball off them, return kicks & punts, and give you a zone read package in the bargain. He is still very raw as a receiver, but could start out as a part time power slot this year while he learns the position.



56.SEATTLE - ROBERT NKEMDICHE - -  DT/DE - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - NICK FAIRLEY - RAMS
Brandon Mebane signed with the Chargers, and the cap strapped Seahawk's need to save money somewhere.  Nkemdiche is a top 10 talent. He can be as good as he wants to be, but I am now tempering my expectations after finishing his tape, and think he will fall a lot farther than his ability warrants on draft day. Has the explosion & quickness to rush the passer as a 4-3 three technique, and that's his best position in the NFL. He was the # 1 overall prospect out of high school a few years back for a reason, but a late season bone headed high profile off the field incident involving weed could send his stock tumbling. He compounded it at the combine by throwing a teammate under the bus, and blaming the media for his problems .His production has never quite lived up to his ability, and while some of it is due to double teams, a lot of it looks like a lack of effort to me .  He could go a lot higher too a team willing to take a risk, although it wouldn't surprise me if he was entirely off some teams boards, but there are too many red flags for me touch him before the early 3rd round. Seattle has a strong veteran locker room full of defensive stars, and the infrastructure to help this kid reach his potential if he buys in.The Seahawks value explosive traits and his type of frame. Plus Pete Carroll has a knack for getting the most out of his players, and this high level veteran defense could help push the kid to excel.  


57.GREEN BAY - SHON COLEMAN - ** - OT - AUBURN
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KYLE TURLEY - retired
Both Bryan Bulaga and David Biakhtiari were hurt last season, and neither is the top shelf tackle Aaron Rodgers needs .  Coleman is big, strong, athletic, and can bury people when he's on. If you watch him vs Texas A&M you see him as a first rounder, but if you watch him vs Alabama he looks more like a 3rd rounder with potential. Personally I split the difference and give him a 2nd round grade. I believe many teams will think they can they can refine his technique and improve his awareness, because he really just lacks experience. The reason for that lack is that his career was delayed out of high school due to leukemia, but there is very little chance that disease reoccurs once puberty has ended. I was thinking he might go in the first round, but he skipped the Senior Bowl, and revealed at the combine he had surgery to repair his MCL after the season . So it's good that he had a legit reason to skip the game, but it's bad that he can't workout at the combine, although doctors say he could be ready to workout before the draft. If he is I think he goes in the 2nd round. He could be their left tackle of the future.



58.PITTSBURGH - JALEN MILLS - CB/S - LSU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - BRADLEY ROBY - BRONCOS
The Steelers defense is in a transition phase. They drafted 2 smaller corners in 2015, but need another with more size going forward, and they especially need to replace Antwon Blake. Mills is a corner/ safety tweener. Can play inside or outside but his best tape is from the slot. Lacks the aggression to be an up safety, but he could play deep OK if he added some more muscle, although that's not his best fit. Fluid hips and quick feet. Right now he is a tall lean corner who lacks long speed, but he could play outside in a zone heavy scheme where he has help over the top .He looked great at corner at the Senior Bowl, but his tape at safety isn't worth this high of a pick.He would play corner for Pittsburgh. 





59.KANSAS CITY -  KENDALL FULLER - ** - CB - VIRGINIA TECH
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CEDRICK GRIFFIN - FA
The Chiefs lost Sean Smith to division rival Oakland, and haven't replaced him. Fuller will join his brothers as NFL corner backs, and has the talent to be the best of the bunch. If you watch Kendall's 2014 tape he looked like a guy with a mid 2nd round grade to me. That led me to believe his play would improve this year and he would be a definite first rounder. Then he got hurt and his tape playing through that injury is really bad, but even if you give him a pass because of the knee, I can't give him a bump up he never displayed. Since he still isn't %100 I have to drop him, and now have him as a mid 3rd rounder, but think he will go higher because of the need at the position. So basically even with the injury I still see his size, 2014 tape, ball skills, high football IQ, and solid all around game getting him drafted in the first 2 rounds. He's also smart & physical enough to transition to free safety down the road if he adds some size once his speed goes.



  

60.NEW ENGLAND - CHARLES TAPPER - DE - OKLAHOMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TRENT COLE - COLTS
Tapper is a rocked up physical specimen who I expected big things from after a great sophomore year as 4-3 end, but not only didn't he keep progressing from there, he went up and down through the next 2 years as a 3-4 end.He was just a overall inconsistent player on tape, because he doesn't regularly stay low, and that's very odd because he isn't a taller end. Lacks a varied pass rush arsenal, and he doesn't counter once blocked as a rusher, but flashes the ability of a high end speed to power rusher.  He was very stout against the run when he stayed low, and so I saw him as maybe being able to play as a undersized 3-4 end/4-3 three technique who would have to bulk up to stay their in the NFL. Then he blew it up the 40 at the combine with the weight he had added since his sophomore year, although a pulled hammy kept him from finishing his workout, and he didn't do the other drills at his pro day either . He looked stronger & more explosive than I anticipated , and measured in with really long arms for his height. Now not only is he a NFL 4-3 base end, you have to wonder if he could even be a weak side 4-3 end if he takes well to coaching. His scheme kept him from being unleashed as a pass rusher and you could make  argument for that limiting his sack & TFL numbers. Now instead of late 3rd/early 4th round pick I see him squarely in the early 3rd round with a chance to sneak into the second. Still, to be clear on this , while he was a productive player for 3 years his tape the last 2 years doesn't match that combine 40 yard dash,. Will he be over drafted ? Off his tape, probably. However, if he commits himself to his craft , and uses the tools he showed at the combine to play with technique, he could end up a Pro - Bowler.




61.NEW ENGLAND-(arizona) - HASSAN RIDGEWAY - ** - DT - TEXAS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOHNATHAN HANKINS - GIANTS The Patriots really need an outside receiver, but there isn't one worth this pick. However, they also lost Akiem Hicks & Sealver Siliga from their interior D-Line rotation. Back in the early 2000's the Patriots built the defense for there dynasty by drafting D-lineman in the first round in 3 out of 4 years. Richard Seymour in 2001 Ty Warren in 2003, and Vince Wilfork in 2004. They have drafted Dominique Easley & Malcolm Brown in each of the last 2 first rounds, and this pick could have completed a potential new dominant trio up front. Then Easley tried to buck the Patriot way and got cut, Hoodie don't play dude. Easley should have been grateful that they took a 2 time major knee injury college guy in the first. Instead he tried to do things his way after tearing his quad, and went unclaimed on waivers. Let's hope he see's the light and isn't a cautionary tale, because he is really talented, but I doubt Pats fans care much about that right now. Ridgeway has first round talent , but his injury history will keep him from going that high. He's very strong against the run , and has a solid motor, but he is at his best in a rotation. He needs to add more pass rush moves, but he does explode off the snap, and even when he doesn't shoot a gap he will at least collapse the pocket as a bull rusher.  A guy who played hurt and was still productive just sounds like a Belichick type to me. Throw in Terrance Knighton and the Patriots should be stout with all guys up front.



62.CAROLINA - TYLER BOYD - WR - # - PITTSBURGH
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JARVIS LANDRY without the blocking
Boyd is a smooth crafty route runner that would be ideal in the slot for the Panthers. Plus having a wide receiver with reliable hands would make Cam's day. He is also an explosive return man & gadget play guy that a smart offensive coordinator could use to wreak havoc on a defense.



63.DENVER - CONNOR COOK - QB - MICHIGAN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KYLE ORTON - retired
The Broncos still haven't acquired a QB to compete with Mark Sanchez, although are working on a deal for Colin Kaepernick, but unless that gets done I am giving them a QB here. I am sure some Denver fans will point out that Sanchez was the QB on a  defensive led Jets team that went to back to back AFC championship games. That is true. The difference is that those Jets teams also had a great O-Line and running game. The Broncos defense has also lost their best interior pass rusher & middle linebacker in fee agency. Their offense has also lost their best run blocker in Evan Mathis as well. While I am not a big Cook fan it appears that many NFL teams are. The more I saw of him the less I was sold on him, because he just lacks the accuracy to be a top level QB. On top of that his leadership questions really make me drop him down, but some of his teammates have come to his defense recently.However, he plays in a pro style offense, has all the tools, and it's likely NFL teams think they can improve him. He has a decent chance to at least be the Parcells bus driver type QB that this team can win with. 




4 comments:

  1. You did a good job on this mock. Solid explanations. I'm curious as Bears fan- why Buckner over Rankins? Scheme fit?

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    1. First off,Thanks. Second-That's a really good question. Yes, scheme fit is a big part of since the bears switched to a base 3-4 last season, and Buckner is the prototype 5 technique in my opinion. I happen to love both players, and it's kinda funny that out of the 7 players I consider elite in this draft you mentioned the only 2 that I think might actually fall out of the top 10. They were also the same 2 I chose from on that particular pick. While Rankins has clearly shown at Louisville that he can be a force as 3-4 five technique I still think he would be at his best in a 4-3. Also, the opposing QB's in tour division are all only 6'2'. The prototype NFL QB is 6'5' with an over the top release so he can see over the top of the line of scrimmage ,and avoid getting his passes tipped. Rodgers, Brigewater, and Stafford all struggle with tipped passes and finding open throwing lanes. That's part of the reason why you see all 3 of them moving the pocket so often , or holding onto the ball too long. Buckner is 6'7' ,with long arms ,and the biggest hands I have ever seen on a human being. He will make it really tough on your division to find open receivers.Take care

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  2. please do a draft without being bias. if ramsey isn't there at 4, i believe the cowboys will trade down, not trade back into the first round to get a questionable qb comparable to a guy that has a ring because of a good defense. the cowboys haven't had a good defense since the 90's, and the powers that be aren't defensive minded to say the least. wade phillips just punched another coaching gig ticket because denver gave him a few great players on d. whereas.... ramsey or riot

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    1. I don't know where your bias comment comes from, as I'm a rams fan , Second- if you read my whole post on the subject I clearly said that Dallas should take one of 3 defensive prospects, and have them drafting Ramsey at #4. In my next expanded mock I have them taking a DE in the 3rd. Phillips or Marinelli makes no difference without better players. Second the QB pick reflects what I think they will do, and not my choice if I was their GM. Personally , if I couldn't get Goff or Wentz I would wait until the 4th round and take a project QB like Dak Prescott, Cardale Jones, Brandon Allen, or Christian Hackenburg. At least one of then should be there when they pick.Last I clearly talk about them trading down in the same post on pick 4. Her's a quote since you don't read too well" Also, if the Chargers don't take Tunsil this pick could be very valuable. The Ravens & Buccaneers might want to make it worth their while to move back , and still allow them to stay in the top 10. Maybe even the now pick wealthy Titans would be willing to give them #15 and 2 seconds to move down.They could then take Tunsil , Ramsey, Bosa or even Jack if his combine re-check comes back clean.I don't know if Dallas wants to move that far down, but the Titans could certainly afford it" . So in the future you should learn to read before you type.

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