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Monday, February 15, 2016

2016 2 ROUND NFL MOCK DRAFT - 2./15/16

With the Senior bowl over now the scouting combine is the next big event on the NFL draft calendar . Massive tape study continues, especially on the early entries & guys who didn't play in any of the ALL - STAR games.  It seems year after year that the NFL keeps hoping that they will slowdown the influx of early entries, but their plan isn't working. A record 107 underclassmen entered the 2016 draft, and I think it's likely that close to a quarter of them will go UN-drafted. However most of the top 10, probably more than 70% of the first round draftees , and at least 40 plus players out of the top 100 will also be players who could have stayed in school for at least one more year. Keep in mind that some of these guys will get hurt, get in trouble off the field, and impress and/or disappoint at the combine , at on campus Pro Days, or during visits with teams.  The prospects have former or current NFL player comparisons below their name , so you can get an idea of who it is your team might be getting. If you don't know the player then just run a search. However, I will change them later if someone else comes to mind that I think is a better comp.  Right now I see a draft deep on the defensive side off the ball.  Interior D-line is the deepest overall position with over 10 players with at least a second round grade.So if you need a 4-3 DT,  a 3-4 end or nose tackle this is your lucky draft. Edge rusher, corner back , safety, and off the ball linebackers all have at least one potential top 10 pick. All of those positions have at least 5 players with a chance to go in the first 2 rounds.  On offense the O-line is the strongest position group, especially at tackle in the first round, but there is depth at center throughout the draft. There is no clear cut elite franchise QB at the top of of this draft right now, even though I think it likely that 3 QB's go in the first round, and it's possible that as many 8 could go in the top 100, and at least a dozen should be drafted overall. Of the 2 QB's I currently have with a 1rst round grade neither of them are as highly graded as Winston & Mariota last year. Although the rest of this years draft is better in blue chip talents at the top compared to last season .The Patriots have officially been docked their number one pick from the 'Deflategate" witch hunt. Feel free to leave a comment. Agreeing or disagreeing is welcome, but please do it intelligently and respectfully. If you can't, or resort to personal attacks, I just won't post it. So here it is. Enjoy.


# Is for a player with with reported character or maturity concerns.


** Is for a player with reported injury concerns.




1.TENNESSEE - 
LAREMY TUNSIL - OT - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TRENT WILLIAMS - REDSKINS
For a young team that has already got some of the major building blocks of their rebuild in hand the best player available is usually the best strategy. Bosa has the highest floor with a pretty good upside,and in a draft where their is no clear cut number one pick he might be the best choice for them. However everything I hear or read from those in the know has so far led me to believe they are going to take Tunsil. This could be draft smoke screening, because I thought Taylor Lewan was at least in the top half of LT's in the NFL last year, and that's pretty good for a 2nd year player. In fact Lewan (#12)has outplayed (#2 ) Greg Robinson, and (#6) Jake Matthews who were drafted ahead of him in 2014 so far. However, I get it.  You want to protect your new franchise QB. Flipping Lewan over to the right side and drafting Tunsil would give them young bookend high level tackles to help the franchise grow into a contender, and the pass rush was the strongest part of the titans defense last year. Tunsil had a odd start to the season. Originally coming off a broken leg , and then held out by the NCAA for receiving extra benefits before the season even started put his draft stock in jeopardy. The punishment finally ended and he started playing again on October 24th against Texas A&M. Not only did Tunsil play, he played really well against a likely 2017 top 10 pick in Myles Garrett, and continued to play well the rest of the year. He showed he is still the same elite talent I saw on tape before the injury too, and his ability to recover in the passing game on those few plays where he is beaten off the snap is extremely rare. Tunsil is a special athlete for an offensive tackle, and if wanted to he could probably drop 25 pounds and be a pro bowl TE.Although he needs to add muscle to be more of a force in the run game he does flash a finishers attitude at times. If he avoids any character mishaps, or another injury while preparing for the draft, I believe he will be the first OT taken. 



2.CLEVELAND - 
SAN FRANCISCO-(dallas)- JARED GOFF - QB - CALIFORNIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TRENT GREEN - retired
Johnny Football has left the building! The collective heartfelt sighs of relief among Browns can be felt worldwide, and Cleveland will now likely be selecting their 3rd first round QB in 5 years.  Goff is a top shelf talent with a good enough arm to make all the throws. He reads defenses faster & throws with more anticipation than anyone in this draft. If he can add 15 to 20 pounds of muscle before he combine to fill out his frame ,and can convince NFL teams that he can transition to a pro style offense ,he has a good chance to be the first QB drafted. Goff has improved in all areas this season, and even adjusted well after a spate of interception heavy games around mid-season. Even though He isn't an elite QB prospect right now, he is still pretty good. He finished really strong in his bowl game, has good touch & accuracy, has the guts to keep his eyes down field & still make a good throw when the rush is bearing down on him, makes his reads quicker than any other QB in this draft. Goff is the only guy I could see starting from day one as a rookie in this draft, and that is another reason why I think he is the first QB taken, because the only other QB that might be able to capably start as a rookie is Connor Cook, and his leadership and poise questions could cause him to free fall in the draft. A QB needy team will probably snatch him up high. There is no fan base and city more deserving & QB needy than Cleveland right now.


3.SAN DIEGO - 
RONNIE STANLEY -OT - N. DAME
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DUANE BROWN - TEXANS
The chargers O-line woes have continued this year. They especially need a center , and I expect they will go there in round 2 or 3, but it's highly unlikely you will ever see one worth this pick in any draft .They have even spent a lot of money & draft picks on this O-line recently, and while injuries and retirements have contributed to the whole debacle, they don't look better just yet. Right tackle Joseph Barksdale is on a one year deal, and it's curious that the Rams( or anyone else for that matter )wouldn't pay him much after a good 2014 season. My guess is they move on from him , even though he has played OK this season. They are still financially committed to current left tackle King Dunlap, and that will probably be the difference between he and Barksdale, but they can flip Dunlap over to the right side.  This line is full of physical maulers, but what it lacks is athleticism, especially in pass protection. Stanley would have been a first round pick in the 2015 draft, would be a big durable upgrade at left tackle in pass pro, and he would give them somebody who can really move on the second level in the run game. Phillip Rivers re-signed with them and now it's time to protect him.


***TRADE*** The 49ers trade their  1rst(#7) ,2nd  (#37) ,and  6th rounders to the COWBOYS for their 1rst (#4) and 3rd(#67)rounder***TRADE***




4.SAN FRANCISCO-(dallas)-CARSON WENTZ - QB - N. DAKOTA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CARSON PALMER - CARDINALS
Colin Kaepernick's Jeckle and Hyde imitation continued this season, and he was benched for almost the entire second half of the season., and while I think he got too much of the blame, his contract allows them to move on from him after this year without a big penalty. Since they brought in Chip Kelly I now think they will keep him , because he should probably excel in Chip's offense. However, there are reports he wants out, so who knows? If that is the case I could actually see them trading up to get a QB. If not for an injury that cost him half the year Wentz might have been the consensus #1 QB, but we will never know now.  After leading N. Dakota St. to a NCAA division 1 championship ,he was having an even better season this year when he broke the wrist on his throwing hand. While FCS guys are harder to project ,he did play in a pro style offense , and has good tools. He returned from injury for the bowl game ,and led his team to another FCS championship. While he didn't do anything spectacular at the Senior Bowl he was clearly the best QB there, and he has already demonstrated he can be a weapon on designed QB runs as well. He also had the guts to show up and compete unlike some others. I am not as high on Wentz as some, and think he needs to sit at least a year, but I do believe he will become a good starter in time. In this offense with it's quicker easier reads Wentz might even be able to get on the field as a rookie, and his penchant for locking on to the first receiver would be alleviated some. In addition his size and athleticism would help ,since they run the QB more than most NFL teams. 



5.JACKSONVILLE  - 
JOEY BOSA - DE - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JUSTIN TUCK - retired
Left tackle is their biggest need in my opinion, but I see them going defense, because they had no problem scoring points this year. Jacksonville's defense is an off shoot of the one run in Seattle. It requires big , physical, long corners. It also requires physical rangy safeties, and a lot pf high level pass rushers. Jalen Ramsey is both the best corner back , free safety, and strong safety in this draft. I would take him, and he fits there size requirements,but I think a team predicated on getting a pass rush with just 4 players would prioritize that above all else on defense. With the return of 2015 first rounder Dante Fowler from injury that will definitely help some, and it would allow them to replace Chris Clemmons who is past his prime. Plus Andre Branch is a free agent and he has never lived up to his 2nd round draft status. Fowler could be the primary weak side defensive . While Jared Odrick is primarily a run stuffer by design in this defense , and kind of has the responsibilities of a 5 technique, he isn't much of a pas rusher. He is also a better pass rusher on the inside, as opposed to against a OT. Also,you have to have a lot of pass rushers to rotate and keep fresh to get a consistent pass rush from 4 guys. Rarely do you see a 4-3 strong side end who is a great pass rusher, but Bosa is. He also has a great frame with long arms and the overall height & length to be a 5 technique with a little added weight if the Jags ever change schemes again. Shocks blockers with his hands off the snap, stays in control of them until he wants to shed them, and is an extremely polished technician. He is already very disruptive against the run or pass despite being a focus of offensive game plans. Bosa also has the highest floor of any player in this draft. Not only would Bosa falling here be a steal he would give them a lot more options rushing the passer. Bosa can play either side as a 4-3 end, but he is better fit on the strong side simply because he is stouter at the POA against the run than Fowler. 



6.BALTIMORE - 
 JALEN RAMSEY - CB/S - FLORIDA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CHARLES WOODSON - RAIDERS
Joe Flacco's cap number will be north of 28 million this year. With him now coming off a major injury I can see why some might want the Ravens to take a new QB here. Especially because they aren't likely to pick this high again anytime soon, but I will tell you while I doubt it. First, Flacco's  cap number is so high because he had so much leverage coming directly off a Superbowl victory. The ravens were 3-7 with Joe at QB this year before he got hurt. Second, Flacco had also just had one of the great statistical postseasons in NFL history when he got over paid. This year before his injury Joe had 14 TD's, 12 picks, was 25th in QB rating, and 28th in total QBR. 4th- Flacco is coming off a major knee injury, and that not only depresses his value for next season, but also long term. You may look at Flacco and see a big plodding guy , but he isn't. Sure he hasn't been the athlete that Newton or Luck are as a big QB's, but he has always been underrated with his sneaky athleticism in my book. That is probably unlikely coming off this injury at his age. So with the Ravens likely to return from a rash of injuries, reload in the draft, and get Flacco at a much more reasonable price this time around, I doubt they go QB in the first round. Baltimore has big needs at both corner and safety. As I previously stated Ramsey is best corner back, strong & free safety in this draft. That alone is quite a feet, but his rare size ,and physical playing style make him even more coveted. He has even played some LB in the same way Arizona uses Deion Buchanon, and the Patriots use Patrick Chung.  Personally I would play him at safety over corner. Ramsey can fill either need, but his rare ability to give there defense a safety that can man up when a team goes wide is essential.



7.DALLAS-(49ers) - 
MILES JACK - ** - LB - UCLA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DERRICK BROOKS - retired
Sorry cowboys fans. I was one of those who though you could pull out the division and make a run with Romo back, but without him it all went pear shaped. On the bright side a top 5 pick can not only bring you a premium player, but picking near the top of every round , in addition to the extra compensatory picks you are likely to have, could really fill out your roster for a title run next season.  No I will not give them a QB this high if your wondering. Not only does a healthy Romo make them an instant contender, but Jerry Jones isn't going to use a top 10 pick on a guy who is likely to sit at least a year, and possibly 3. Jerry is in his 70's , and desperately wants to to win a Jimmy Johnson-less title he can claim all for his own. Most don't count their last one in 1996 for Jerry, because Jimmy built the overwhelming majority of that roster. Although , I do think Dallas drafts a QB in the first 4 rounds to groom for the future, be a competent backup to Romo now & give them a better chance to avoid a complete collapse again if Romo's hurt for a stretch next year  . However, Dallas desperately needs playmakers on defense. Now if they would just fire predictable ,ultra conservative game micro-manager, run on almost every first down , give up before half time & kneel down, unable the manage the clock Jason Garret,  I would really think they could win it all next year. Norv Turner anyone? Sure, he's not Tomlin or Belichick  . However, he would allow Jerry the spotlight he craves and run this offense much better. It's highly unlikely though. Garret is Jerry's guy and I think he would rather lose than admit he made a mistake when he gave him a long term extension. They need Bosa, Ramsey, or Miles Jack with this pick to fill a big need ,and also get value in the top 10, but the ability to get any of the 3 ,AND pick up another high pick could be too good to pass up.The Tampa 2 defense Dallas runs is predicated on predominantly getting a pass rush with just 4 guys, and even when they blitz is usually just one other guy. Not only would Jack falling here be a steal, it would give them a rare middle linebacker than can handle the coverage responsibilities that it requires. Jack has sideline to sideline ability, and is an elite athlete in the middle who can excel in coverage, even play RB if they suffer a rash of injuries,and he is a natural born play maker anywhere on the field. Jack can definitely be an elite play maker as 4-3 OLB, or in the middle in a Tampa 2. If he gets up around 250  , and their are already rumors that he has been using the time off to put on more muscle,he should even be able to hold up for the long haul as a 3-4 rush or middle linebacker in any defense.He would have been a top 10 lock before a early season meniscus tear, and might have even gone top 5. He should be fine by the combine, and with the meniscus not generally considered a long term problem, he could be medically cleared and kill it in workouts. The injury to Jaylon Smith  makes any battle between the 2 to be the top off the ball linebacker moot. This also allows them to get rid of the talented, but unreliable in many ways Rolando McClain, and keep Sean Lee on the outside.



8.MIAMI 
SHELDON RANKINS - DT/DE - LOUISVILLE
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JURRELL CASEY - TITANS
Neither Earl Mitchell or Jordan Phillips played very well last year next to Ndamukong Suh. Considering how much double team attention that offenses pay to Suh those guys inabilty to more consistently beat dingle blocks really limits the interior of the Fins defense. Phillips was just a rookie, but Mitchell is 6 years in and it's unlikely he gets any better. In a year full of high level interior D-Line talents Rankins has the best & most complete tape. Down in , down out, run or pass, and playing a variety of positions in multiple fronts this guy consistently made plays . He also did it 2 years in a row, and topped a really good 2014 with a great 2015. However, his build makes him look stockier than he actually is, and I doubted his listed ( 6"2" 305 lbs.)measureables. In fact I thought he would come in closer to 6 feet than 6'1' and 290 pounds than 300. Happily, I was wrong! Rankins came in at a fit 6"1"  5/8 inches tall and 304 pounds at the senior bowl weigh ins. Then he was even better at the senior bowl than I thought he would be.He is now among my elite players in this draft, and the number one interior D-Lineman if you run a 4-3 defense . He will also probably be a steal for someone , because some teams really drop players on their boards when they don't have their ideal size. This pick gives them 2 interior D-lineman that are very hard to block one VS one against the run or pass. The entire defense would seriously benefit .



9.TAMPA BAY - 
NOAH SPENCE - OLB/DE - #  -  E. KENTUCKY
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JUSTIN HOUSTON - KC
I would go left tackle, but there is now a good chance that multiple veteran free agent OT's will be on the market to fill that void, and allow them to fill another big need with this pick. With the recent rash reports of NFL teams trusting his character I now think they go edge rusher, and take Noah Spence. His talent is undeniable, but his dismissal from Ohio St. ,after failing multiple drug tests put even a first round selection in doubt until recently. not only did he pas lot of test this year, but he requested to be tested as often as possible, and had a good season. Then he was the best edge rusher at the Senior Bowl, and coaches at both Ohio St. and eastern Kentucky went to bat for him. I still think he would be better in a 3-4 ,as he struggles to hold his ground at the point of attack in the run game, but he has a big enough frame to add a little more muscle and keep his burst & quickness. I wouldn't take him this high, because of the past problems and his inconsistent motor on tape.  However if he has a good combine, I understand why they might go upside and snag him.



10.NY GIANTS - 
LAQUAN TREADWELL - WR - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ALLEN ROBINSON - JAGUARS
If you watched Odell be routinely double & triple teamed ,and wonder how even more incredible he could be with another dependable receiver on the outside you are not alone. Treadwell is my number one receiver in this draft , and the only one who might go in the top 10 .He shook off the rust in the second half of the season ,and showed he was the same player before a serious leg injury. A big bodied fierce guy who attacks the football would be appreciated by any QB, and that's Treadwell down to his toes. He combines the passionate on the field temperament of Dez Bryant, with the off the field professionalism ,attention to detail ,and blocking of Larry Fitzgerald. If Victor Cruz returns , they bring in Treadwell, and Odell stays healthy, Eli could have numbers that rival Peyton in his prime next year.If Treadwell runs well he could even go in the top 5.



11.CHICAGO - DEFOREST BUCKNER -DE - OREGON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CALAIS CAMPBELL - CARDINALS
With Jay Cutler playing better than expected ,and Jon Fox having an aversion to playing rookies at key positions, I am now thinking they go a different direction in the draft. Although, a year without former OC Adam Gase things could change next year .The bears have plenty of needs though ,and Fox prefers to build on the defensive side of the ball. With the Bears switch to a base 3-4 defense ,and lacking the long term 5 technique DE prospects needed to take it to next level, Buckner's selection would be ideal.Buckner is a guy I couldn't help noticing on tape when I was watching 49ers 2015 first round pick Arik Armstead. He has similar gigantic dimensions, but was a much more productive player than Armstead on film. He had even better season this time around, won match ups against big time players this year, and must be accounted for on every play. He deserves to go higher than this in my opinion, but I am sure Chicago would laugh all the way to the bank if he was here this late.


***TRADE*** The COWBOYS trade their  2nd(#34) and 2nd  rounder they got from the rams (#37) to the SAINTS for their 1rst (#12) rounder***TRADE***


12.DALLAS-(saints)- 
EZEKIEL ELLIOT - RB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TODD GURLEY - RAMS
Everyone has lamented the decision to not take a RB in last years draft, but they actually ran the ball pretty well in 2015, although not as good as they did in 2014. In this case they not only get a tailor made perfect fit for this offense, but appease the fan base, and make fantasy owners across the land salivate with anticipation of Elliot behind the leagues best O-line. AD is the current gold standard for NFL RB's. No Elliot doesn't have the explosive burst or elite long speed of Adrian Peterson, but he does have good burst and long speed. Like AD he breaks a lot of tackles, finishes his runs, and has great balance . Also, Zeke does have better vision & runs with a lower pad level than AD. Then you get to the things Elliot does well that Peterson is bad at. Elliot is a good receiver, great pass blocker , and rarely fumbles. When you have a 36 year old QB that has broken his collarbone 3 times in about as many years, twice in one season, and still may have surgery on it again, a RB who can pass protect is vital. Elliot is flat out awesome in pass pro, and his ability to come through and extend drives in short yardage would also help Romo stay healthy. I have the same grade I did for both Peterson & Gurley when I evaluated them before the draft. Based on grade alone Elliot is the best player in this draft, but the devaluation of his position , larger injury risk to running backs compared to other positions, and shorter than average effective career span for most RB's make it unlikely he is that high on any ones board.Elliot is the only for sure first round back in this draft, has been extremely productive for 2 straight years, and can play in any system. I expect him to run in the mid 4.5's , but he could be that rare RB that goes in the top 10 if he runs better at the combine.




13.PHILADELPHIA - TAYLOR DECKER - OT - OHIO ST.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JARED VELDHEER - CARDINALS
Chip Kelly got fired, and while I still believe he will be a great NFL coach in the right situation, they need to move forward rebuilding their O-LINE. Either way they are set up to run a zone system , and will value Decker more than most teams because he played in a very similar scheme in college. Cutting Pro bowl left guard Evan Mathis was a huge mistake for the Eagles. To rectify the problem the eagles need someone agile enough to play in their system, and strong enough to anchor the pocket in the passing game.That being said it would currently be a bit of a reach to take any of the OT's left on the board here, but like I said Decker is tailor made for their scheme, and could start out at guard. I expect he will test so well in the pre-draft process that many offensive line coaches will believe they could make him more consistent, and especially teach him to get off the ball quicker. If he does that alone more consistently he could be great. He can also slide over one spot to left tackle if soon to be 34 year old Jason Peters goes down again, and might be the long term answer there . That makes this an even better fit.





14.OAKLAND - VERNON HARGREAVES the 3rd - CB - FLORIDA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JASON VERRETT - CHARGERS
After being cut by the Redskins(2013 3 2nd rounder)  David Amerson was pocked up by the Raiders , and last year he looked like he was finally starting to fulfill his potential. The 2013 first rounder DJ Hayden has not , and no else in their secondary has stood out ,except for the retiring Charles Woodson. I had previously never seen a sophomore corner be the best corner in all of college football, but Vernon was in 2014. He got beat more in 2015, but is hasn't affected his confidence. He isn't as tall as you would like , but he challenges receivers like a much bigger man. If he measures in at the 5'11" he is listed at he will be worth this pick. If he is under 5"10" then I think he goes outside the top 10. Either way he is too aggressive, fluid, smart, physical, and fast to fall far in the first round. 



15.
LA RAMS - JACK CONKLIN - OT - MICHIGAN ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JAKE LONG - FA
Personally I now think Jeff Fisher is one of the most overrated coaches of all time, but the Rams brought him back anyway. Don't get me wrong , I am sure he is a nice guy. Also a skilled politician, is good at dealing with the media, and is even a good defensive mind. But he's not anyone who should ever have anything to do with an offense , and his teams consistently under perform in my book . As a matter of fact ,unless he had Steve McNair at QB his teams have always under performed even when they were really talented.
The rams obviously aren't sold on Nick Foles, and why they do have him signed for next season I believe Fisher will want to draft a QB high to give him an excuse to give him more time to produce a winner, In this scenario their isn't one worth this pick, and while they have the ammo to trade up to #1 with the Titans , I doubt they will. Former #2 overall pick Greg Robinson has been real bad on the blindside. He is a powerful physically gifted kid, but just like Michael Oher I think his best fit is at  guard. Conklin is a former walk on and self made man who earned a starting job as a red shirt freshman.  He is a 3 year starter in a power 5 conference who has improved every year, and still did a very good job this year while playing hurt. He has the angry play through the whistle style that coaches love, and does it with fewer penalties than I expected. He would be ideal in this run first offense.



16.DETROIT - 
ANDREW BILLINGS - NT - BAYLOR
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON- ANTHONY"BOOGER"McFARLAND - retired
The lions lost Suh and Fairley, and Haloti Ngata is just a short term partial stop gap at the position, although he is still a good player. When a 31 year old, past his prime, 340 pound man is your best interior pass rusher you need help inside.They do have some promising young players there, but a young potential ALL - PRO DT would surely be welcomed again. 
Billings is massively strong,  can take on the double team , penetrate, and already has good quickness off the ball as a pass rusher. He has the second highest upside of all the DT's , and the ability to play any interior position in a odd or even front. If he takes well to NFL coaching and reaches his potential he could be elite.



17.ATLANTA - 
JAYLON SMITH - ** - LB - N. DAME

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DERRICK JHONSON - CHIEFS
Roddy White has had a long and distinguished career. In fact he is a future HOFer in my book. However , father time is undefeated and has caught up to Roddy now, but with all the injuries among this draft's top receiver's it's not clear if their will be another receiver worth this pick after Treadwell's gone. I would take Corey Coleman , but I think his lack of size will cause him to be a late1/early 2. For now they can get value here with Smith, and fill a need. Paul Worrilow was a liability in the middle for the Falcons. If not for a major knee injury in his bowl game Smith would be at least a top 10 pick, and probably top 5 in my opinion. He has sideline to sideline ability, top level athleticism,  good size, and is a great blitzer. new head coach Dan Quinn should have earned enough of a grace period to think long term here. If Smith is back my mid-season this is a great pick. Even if he misses the whole year, but returns to form in year 2 it's still a good one.



18.INDIANAPOLIS - 
REGGIE RAGLAND - ILB - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DONT'A HIGHTOWER - PATRIOTS
Billy Wynn is better as a backup interior D-Lineman on any team, but he is especially miscast as 3-4 nose tackle. Billings is massively strong,  can take on the double team , penetrate, and has the quickness to develop into a good pass rusher. He has the second highest upside of all the DT's (behind only Rankins)in this draft, and the ability to play any interior position in a odd or even front. If he takes well to NFL coaching and reaches his potential he could be elite. D'Qwell Jackson is undersized, bad at taking on or shedding blocks, and even the tackles he makes are generally too far down the field. Reggie is much better at taking on blocks and filling against the run . Ragland's skills as a blitzer and proven skill to put his hand on the ground & rush off the edge in some cases would really help the Colts. While he still needs work in coverage, he has enough athletic ability & a high enough football IQ to develop into a positive factor in this area. 


19.BUFFALO - 
SHAQ LAWSON - DE - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - WILL SMITH - retired
Mario Williams was misused by the Bills last year, and with his hefty salary & public condemnation of said use , it's unlikely he will be back. Lawson had a great season against the run & pass in 2015. He is also big & strong enough to move inside on obvious passing downs. After the game he played against likely top 10 pick Ronnie Stanley everyone was already taking notice, and his steady high level production continued throughout the season. Lawson was even productive in the national championship game limping around on one leg . Shaq is a guy with a high floor , great motor, and guys with all these attributes generally don't last long on draft day  . While he predominantly played on the weak side at Clemson, he has the strength to hold up fine on the strong side.



20.NY JETS - SHON COLEMAN - OT - AUBURN
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KYLE TURLEY - retired
The Jets were a team with a good defense and bad offense last year, and I was expecting it to be the same this year despite more weapons on offense, until I remembered that Chan Gailey is their OC. Gailey is a coach that plays to his QB's strengths, instead of trying to force them into his cookie cutter offense. That being said , I thought Geno Smith now had a much better chance at success as their starting QB. With his broken jaw slowing down that process , it was really hard to see it going well enough to get them in the playoffs this season . From now on Geno should pay his debts , and also avoid writing checks with his mouth that his ass can't cash , or he could piss his entire career away.  The other main reason I expected them to still miss the playoffs is the lack of a significant upgrade along the O-line. Fitzpatrick played better than I thought he would, and they did narrowly miss the playoffs ,but at least they were close. However, all of the current starters except along the O-line except left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson are better as run blockers, and only center Nick Mangold is a all around plus player right now. Ferguson was once a Pro Bowl caliber pass blocker, but he is on the decline ,and I doubt he will be worth the 8.6 plus million they would have to pay him in 2016. The Jets could save a lot of money by cutting him and upgrade the position. Coleman is big, strong, athletic, and can bury people when he's on. If you watch him vs Texas A&M you see him as a first rounder, but if you watch him vs Alabama he looks more like a 3rd rounder with potential. I believe teams will think they can they can refine his technique and improve his awareness . If he interviews & test well at the combine a player with his aggressive tendencies  & obvious talent will go in the first round.Plus, he is ideal fit in this run first offense.



21. WASHINGTON - 
MACKENSIE ALEXANDER - CB - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CHRIS HARRIS JR - BRONCOS
With the skins being a somewhat surprising NFC EAST winner, but getting knocked out of the playoffs in the first round, the draft is very much on the mind of my best( he's a skins fan) friend already  . Since Kirk Cousins lead them there they will not only likely be out contention for a first round QB, but also might try to get him signed to a low risk middling ( for a QB) contract that only obligates them for about 2 years like the Nick Foles deal.  Chris Culliver was injured this year & played bad when healthy anyway. Plus , Deangelo Hall is 33 and way past his prime. As a 3rd year sophomore Alexander wasn't a guy I thought would enter the draft, but after watching him blanket Sterling Shepard when he lined up outside in the Oklahoma game I have reconsidered. I started going through some of his tape and his feet & hips are awesome. He also has confidence and knows how to get into a receivers head. He may never pick off a lot of balls, but it's hard to tell because QB's tend to avoid throwing into his coverage. If his hamstring injury isn't serious, and he test & measures well he could go in the top 10. 



22.HOUSTON - 
PAXTON LYNCH - QB - MEMPHIS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - COLIN KAEPERNECK - 49ers
I have been thinking that I would mock Christian Hackenburg to the Texans in the second round for awhile, and had the taking Ezekiel Elliot if he fell here, but after finishing all of Elliott's' tape I doubt he falls anywhere near here.  On the other hand Hackenburg's tape had decreasingly got worse the more I watched it, and his accuracy is really bad. In fact his stock has fallen so far in my eyes that I think that's the earliest he might go despite his size & tools, but now I think that Bill O'brien takes a different QB.  A reader asked me why if I would continue to leave Lynch out of my first round mocks and this is what I answered"although I do think it very possible that a team trades back into the late first and takes him because of his size and tools. it's a QB needy league and they are routinely over drafted.That bowl game was just awful for him, and he didn't play well late in the season against Navy or Temple either. The 49ers are likely out of the first round QB business after hiring Chip Kelly, because Kaepernick is tailor made for that offense.  Players will rise & fall soon and Lynch can go either way, but right now he is on a downward spiral. Because of his obvious talent he can & should rise, but his failure in a game that he had a month to practice for is disturbing. It's one thing to light up Ole Miss when no one thinks you have much of a chance, but when you are now in the spotlight and keep failing it raises legitimate questions. Is he a guy who folds under pressure, and/or will he do the necessary preparation to succeed when given a chance? That's just 2 obvious ones. Every team is looking for a guy that has that it factor, and Lynch and Cook have both raised big doubts about their ability to show that quality for me. Ole miss was definitively the best defense Lynch played against and I was on him after that game, but the spotlight causes some guys to shrink, and when the spotlight got brighter he folded. It's too bad he isn't eligible for the Senior bowl, because a good week there could have rejuvenated his stock quickly. Now he has to depend on interviews , workouts, the combine, the craftiness of his agent, and chalkboard sessions to rebound. None of those things would do as much as a good Senior Bowl week would. Not to mention the vetting of his background has barely begun, but I have no reason to doubt his character right now. Time will tell, but I want to see something positive from him before I put him back in the first round.". I am already changing my mind though ,because Hacks's tape just sucked, although you can make a case that what they put around him was pretty bad. Lynch still has work to do, but a guy like O'Brien might be just the coach to teach this guy consistency.


23.MINNESOTA - 
DARRON LEE - OLB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - THOMAS DAVIS - PANTHERS
In the last 2 years the Vikings have drafted Anthony Barr and Eric Kendricks to bolster the line baking corps in the last 2 drafts and it has payed dividends on the field. While Chad Greenway was once a very good player he has declined for 3 straight years. He is also 33 years old and a free agent. Lee is a fluid, athletic, playmaking former DB that would give the Vikings a line backing trio with the athleticism to rival what Carolina has now.



24.CINCINNATI - 
ROBERT NKEMDICHE - -  DT/DE - OLE MISS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - NICK FAIRLEY - RAMS
The Bengals are a franchise that love to draft highly talented players who fall due to character due to injury, and many of them have worked out. Nkemdiche has the size and strength to hold up against the double team as a 3-4 end, and the explosion & quickness to rush the passer as 4-3 three technique. He was the # 1 overall prospect out of high school a few years back for a reason, but a recent bone headed high profile off the field incident involving weed could send his stock tumbling.His production has never quite lived up to his talent, and while some of it is due to double teams, some of it looks like it's due to a lack full time effort to me . He can be as good as he wants to be, but I am now tempering my expectations after finishing his tape, and think he will fall a lot farther than his talent warrants.



25.PITTSBURGH 
ELI APPLE - CB - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AQIB TALIB - BRONCOS
The Steelers defense is in a transition phase. They drafted 2 smaller corners in 2015, but need another with more size going forward, and they especially need to replace Antwon Blake. In that case I have Fuller as the highest ranked corner left. .As a 3rd year sophomore Apple wasn't someone I expected to enter this draft, but I have been playing catch up with some of his tape this week. He's big, fast, athletic, and aggressive in coverage.He still needs to be coached up, especially on quickly recognizing route combinations, his penchant for penalties, and work on his tackling. However, he has a high upside and his best football should be ahead of him.


26.SEATTLE - 
JASON SPRIGGS - OT - INDIANA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - D'BRICKASHAW FERGUSON - JETS
Russell Oking is currently their best offensive lineman, but he is a free agent , not worth big franchise let tackle money,and they can't pay everybody in the salary cap era.First off let me say the Seahawks should pick nothing but O-lineman in the first 3 rounds, but I doubt they will. I think they trade back unless a tackle they think is athletic enough to play in a zone scheme, and is worth this pick is available when they are up. Spriggs is a 4 year starter that has improved every season. I have a second round grade on him now that I have finished all his tape, but he has already grown on me a lot this season. If he adds some more muscle & learns to play lower he can be great in time, and if the gargantuan Phil Loadholt can learn to bend his knees so can Spriggs.  Like Ferguson his forte is pass protection right now, and his ability to mirror is excellent. He doesn't get a lot of push in the run game , but in the Seattle zone scheme he could make more of a difference than he could for some other teams.He will rise up draft boards after a good senior bowl. He even played with more leverage & knee bend then he showed on his previous game tape in mobile, and although he is still more vulnerable to inside moves in pass pro than he should be , it was less of a problem this week than it was on game film. The fact that he has recognized his flaws and is working on them should endear him to NFL teams. If he continues to do well at the combine ,and in workouts he should come off the board in the late first round.



27.GREEN BAY - 
A'SHAWN ROBINSON - DT/DE - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MARCELL DAREUS - BILLS
Nose tackle BJ Raji is no longer a force inside and is a free agent this off season. DE Letroy Guion is also a free agent , and while he may be back on a cheaper deal, he was suspended to start the season for a off the field incident. Robinson tape hasn't been as good as I hoped it would be, but he still has first round talent. He can hold the point of attack, penetrate, and get a good pass rush, but he needs to be more consistent shedding blockers. The fact that he can play all the interior positions in an even or odd front makes this an even better fit. 



28.KANSAS CITY - 
EMMANUEL OGBAH - DE - OKLAHOMA ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DeMARCUS LAWRENCE - COWBOYS
The only thing former #1 overall pick Eric Fisher has shown for certain is that he doesn't play well as a left tackle. Donald Stephenson is a good athlete , but watching him get mollywopped against Green Bay convinced me he is not the long term answer for the Chiefs on the blindside either. I now think they would have to reach too far to take a tackle here, and won't over draft one in this case. Bell is another of Ohio states early entries ,and his ability to man up in nickel would be much appreciated in Washington.Tamba Hali had a good year on a one year deal, but he will be 33 next season, and is a free agent. If the Chiefs are going to spend significant money on their older free agents I think they will probably prioritize Eric Berry first & Derrick Johnson second. Dee Ford has shown he lacks the size & strength to hold up on the strong side for a lot of snaps.Justin Houston is already dominant on the right, and shouldn't be moved. Ogbah might be a fit and allow Ford to be more of a backup on both sides, and be used more regularly as a situational pass rusher. Ogbah has the explosive burst, size , strength, and violent play style off the edge NFL teams crave. He also has the strength to kick inside on obvious passing downs, and allow Ford onto the field more.He is still really raw and mostly gets by on talent right now, but if he can show a more consistent motor & more varied pass rush arsenal Ogbah could be a pro - bowler once he gets coached up. 



29.ARIZONA - 
JARRAN REED - - DT/DE - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON- TY WARREN - retired
The Cards need help on the front of their 3-4 defense, and while an edge rusher would probably be their first choice, I don't see one worth this pick here right now. I doubt GM Steve Keim reaches for one either, but if Noah Spence falls due to his character issues I think they pull the trigger. Barring a trade up I think they help the defense in another way in the first round. Other than one elite 5 technique (Calais Campbell )none of their down lineman can both hold the point of attack against the double team, and get a good pass rush. Robinson tape hasn't been as good as I hoped it would be, but he still has first round talent.In a year without so many similar players I believe he would go higher, but I now think a lot of teams will be getting great value on interior D-lineman in the first 75 picks. He can hold the point of attack, penetrate, and get a good pass rush, but he definitely needs to be more consistent as a rusher. The fact that he can play all the interior positions in an even or odd front makes this an even better fit. 


30.DENVER - 
CODY WHITEHAIR - G/T - KANSAS ST.

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOSH SITTON - PACKERS
After the loss of Ryan Clady to his second major injury in 3 years I understand why some people will want a left tackle here. If one pops up that I think might be available this late,fits their scheme, and is a good value,  that will be the pick. Keep in mind that Clady was the ONLY Bronco lineman I felt good about in this scheme before they lucked into Evan Mathis. No matter who the QB is next season I expect them to be running Kubiak's zone scheme. Whitehair is a college left tackle who would be playing left guard for the Broncos. With Cody's experience at both tackle and guard he can just slide to the left one spot if Clady goes down again , and fill in for at least the short term. 



31.CAROLINA - COREY COLEMAN - ** - WR - BAYLOR

NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - STEVE SMITH - BALTIMORE
Out of all the teams that pursued La'el Collins the Panthers were the one that NEEDED him the most, but he signed with Dallas so they still need a left tackle. While Michael Oher has surprisingly looked pretty good at LT in pass protection , he has been horrible as run blocker, but I don't think anyone anywhere near this pick will fall to them in the first. Cam Newton also deserves a reliable wide receiver. Someone who can get open and be relied upon to actually make the catch. Yes, I am talking about Benjamin, Funchess, and Ginn. if I was Cam I would be tempted to only throw it to Olsen and Cotchery, but that;s unlikely. Coleman gets open, can catch,  and he can stretch the field. If he was 6 "2" he would be a top 5 pick , but even at a reported 5"10" he has been unstoppable this year.He's fierce and reminds me of a young Steve Smith minus the dominant attitude that Newton doesn't need in his huddle.


32.CLEVELAND - JOSH DOCTSON - ** - WR - TCU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AJ GREEN - BENGALS
Unless Josh Gordon is brought back the browns lack any semblance of a # 1 wide receiver. Even if Gordon is reinstated & in the fold when training camp begins can he be trusted to stay out of trouble? Even if he does keep his nose clean is Gordon still the same great player on the field after so much time away from the game? The Browns need a bigger outside receiver that they can trust to make big plays down the field, and be a go to guy in clutch situations. Doctson will need to learn to widen his route tree in the NFL, but he is clutch , has great hands, and can win jump balls when it matters most. If not for a late season wrist injury I think would already be in the first round conversation a lot more. 


33.TENNESSEE - DERRICK HENRY - RB - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOHN RIGGINS - retired
The Titans have 4 RB's and don't seem inclined to commit to any of them, so to me that means they don't have a #1 back. Taking a back like Henry to lead their power running game would help take the load off of Mariota, and also help their defense stay off the field.The Heisman winner is big, fast, powerful, and proved he can be the focal point of an offense last year. His ability to run over , through, and away from defenses in the second half of games after they are worn down is awesome. However, after a year with around 400 touches it's probably good that they have all those backs to share some of the load in the first half of games


34.NEW ORLEANS-(dallas)-  MICHAEL THOMAS - WR - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KEENAN ALLEN - CHARGERS
Drew Brees tends to miss high when his throws are off the mark, and that's why Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham have been so valuable to him over the years in New Orleans. That is also why 5"10" Brandin Cooks didn't worked out for them as well as they hoped in 2014, but they found more ways to get him open in space in, and have played him more in the slot in 2015 . So it stands to reason that if they are going to get Brees a new potential receiver he needs to either be tall ,or a good leaper. Thomas is a big receiver with a wide catch radius, and strong run after the catch abilities.


35.SAN DIEGO - RYAN KELLY - C - ALABAMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOHN SULLIVAN - VIKINGS
The Chargers have had the worst center play over a 2 year period that I have ever seen in the last couple of years. In 2014 alone they started 5 different players at the pivot. In 2015 Trevor Robinson was the primary guy, and he was not good. Kelly is the best center in this draft for a team that runs the Chargers scheme. All people who love the draft were very disappointed when he backed out of the Senior Bowl, but I am over it now enough to admit that he is still probably going to be the first center off the board. Combining Kelly with their new left tackle might even be enough to get Rivers to sign a long term deal. 


36.BALTIMORE - BRAXTON MILLER  - ** - WR - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - a bigger PERCY HARVIN - BILLS
With Steve Smith & Breshad Perriman both coming off injuries, and Smith likely to actually retire after the 2016 season the Ravens need another receiver to develop. Miller is a former QB who was the Big 10 player of the year at the position. He surprised me with his hands and catch radius this year on tape. He also had a good week of practice at the Senior Bowl. Miller can not only develop into a good receiver in a couple of years, but out of the gate he can run end arounds , jet sweeps, throw the ball off them, return kicks & punts, and give you a zone read package in the bargain. He is still very raw as a receiver, but could start out as a part time power slot this year , and learn from Steve Smith before he rides off into the Hall Of Fame sunset.



37.NEW ORLEANS-(dallas ) - LEONARD FLOYD - LB - GEORGIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CONNOR BARWIN - EAGLES
The Sainst definitely needs pass rush help off the edge. Floyd is a great athlete that can bend the arc on the way to the passer, but he needs a wider array of moves right now. He also needs to add muscle,  spent far too much time playing the middle like Clay Matthews last year, and it was a waste of his rushing ability in my opinion.  His overall tape wasn't as impressive as I thought it would be either.He is too light to be an every down player right now in my opinion, and I think he is just a situational pass rusher as a rookie. That's why I don't have him as high as many others. I think he will do well at the combine, but unless he shows up weighing at least 245 pounds he could drop out of the first round.


38.JACKSONVILLE - SCOOBY WRIGHT - ** LB - ARIZONA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON-a less disciplined -SEAN LEE - COWBOYS
Paul Posluszny is a solid veteran player and the Jags defense is better when he is in the game, especially against the run. However he is injury prone, will be 32 next season, and the jags aren't financially tied to him. In addition Gus Bradley comes from Seattle where the versatile and athletic Bobby Wagner allowed his defense to do a lot of things Gus can't do without a similar player. Wright is a smart ,high character player ,can make plays in coverage, and is a excellent pass rusher .He only falls this far because he was injured twice this season.


39.TAMPA BAY - VONN BELL - S - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DEVIN McCOURTY - PATRIOTS
The Bucs don't have any safeties that excel in coverage ,or that can cover a lot of ground for that matter. Bell is another of Ohio states early entries ,and his ability to man up in nickel would be much appreciated in Tampa. He can be the center fielder this franchise lacks, play a lot of single high, and give them the ability to blitz more.



40.NEW YORK GIANTS - KEVIN DODD - DE - CLEMSON
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DERRICK SHELBY - DOLPHINS
The pass rush was the real key to the Giants 2 Superbowl victories under Tom Coughlin, and despite DC Steve Spagnouolo's return I doubt it's a good one this season. JPP already looked on the decline due to his back injury, but blowing up his hand in a boneheaded fireworks gone wrong incident only makes things worse. They already rescinded his long term contract offer, and considering how badly he has handled the aftermath of this situation,  I would be shocked if they brought him back next season. He finally passed a physical and is playing again, but even if they do bring him back I think he would he might be a better fit on the strong side now. So far they have kept playing him on the right though. Dodd's ability to play either DE position would be welcomed. He's a one year wonder who played his best ball down the stretch, especially in both playoff games. That worries me when a guy enters the draft with so little starting experience, but he's smart, athletic, and has a great frame.

41.CHICAGO - TYLER BOYD - WR - # - PITTSBURGH
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JULIAN EDELMAN - PATRIOTS
Alshon Jeffery is a free agent after the season, and while he will probably be brought back next year the Bears may not want to pay him what he wants on a long term deal. Chicago's receiving core was decimated by injuries this year, and Jeffrey has missed significant time in 2 of his 4 seasons. Even if 2015 #1 pick Kevin White returns healthy for 2016 ,and is the guy they thought he was when they drafted him, another receiver is needed. Boyd is a smooth crafty route runner that would be ideal in the slot for Cutler. He is also an explosive return man & gadget play guy. 


42.MIAMI - GERMAIN IFEDI - OT - TEXAS A&M
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ANTHONY DAVIS - 49ers
After a bad 2014 LG Dallas Thomas was even worse in 2015. In addition to that LT Branden Albert has misses multiple games  for 4 straight years. So while a left guard is absolutely needed, one that could at least passably fill in on the blindside would be even better. Ifedi is the next Texas A&M offensive tackle with a good chance to go high in the draft. He has already played tackle & guard,  has been especially good in the run game, and that's a big plus when you have young QB you want to avoid putting to much pressure on. He could play left guard as a rookie , and would at least give them a solid fall back option for Albert if he gets hurt again ,or they decide to not keep him after next season.


43.LA RAMS -(philadelphia)-VERNON BUTLER - DT - LA. TECH
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MUHAMMAD WILKERSON - JETS
The Rams are probably losing Nick Fairley to free agency this off season ,and need someone to team with ALL WORLD stud Aaron Donald inside who get a better pass rush than Michael Brockers.Butler primarily was a 5 technique at a small school, but his tape was great, and he had a strong showing at the Senior Bowl. It's extremely rare for such a big man to move so well, and he has the quickness to play the 3 technique, and the size and power to play the nose in this defense. Butlers tape just kept getting better, and after a good Senior Bowl week I have him with a first round grade, but small scholl guys tend to fal farther than they should.


44.OAKLAND - KENNY CLARK - DT - UCLA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - STAR LOTULELEI - PANTHERS
The Raiders need 5 techniques that can hold their ground and still get a pass rush in their 3-4 scheme. Clark was primarily a nose tackle at UCLA, but he was consistently good against the run, and significantly improved as pass rusher this year. He has the agility to kick outside and be a 3-4 end , and could team with Dan Williams to be a dominant duo inside against the run in goal line.


45.LA RAMS - HARLAN MILLER - CB - SE LOUISIANA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - KEVIN JOHNSON - TEXANS
Both Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson are free agents this off season , and it's unlikely that they can resign both starting corners. Miller is a player you fall in love with if you watch him on tape. Despite his stork like rangy frame he is still highly physical and competitive. Once he spends a year in a NFL weight room he could develop into a long term # 1 corner.



46.DETROIT - DARION THOMPSON - D - BOISE ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - RESHAD JONES - DOLPHINS
James Ihedigbo will be 33 next season, is a free agent, and the Lions need a cheap replacement for him with their cap woes. Thompson was impressive on tape, especially against the run, but he answered a lot of questions about his coverage abilities at the senior Bowl. 


47.NEW ORLEANS - JALEN MILLS - CB/S - LSU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - BRADLEY ROBY - BRONCOS
Brandon Browner was down right terrible this year. Usually you know you are going to get a lot of penalties with him, but also some physical quality play that frustrates receivers. Not this year, and if ever a guy was a candidate to be cut and eat his dead money on your cap ,it's him. That's really saying something considering the terrible cap situation in New Orleans. Mills has the size any NFL team would like at corner  , but primarily played safety at LSU. That's actually why I think he falls this far because he looked great at corner at the Senior Bowl, but his tape at safety isn't worth this high of a pick. The fact that he played his college ball at LSU only makes this choice more likely. 



48.INDIANAPOLIS - JOSHUA GARNETT - G - STANFORD
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DAVID DECASTRO - STEELERS
Since protecting Andrew Luck should be their first priority I am hoping they will take the best interior O-lineman available. Jack Mewhort is the only dependable one, they have moved him around the line in his first 2 years , and he has played well wherever he was at. They could just take the best O-lineman available , play him where he is the most comfortable, and put Mewhort at the spot of biggest weakness . If they just take a worthy offensive lineman of any kind I am sure Luck would be happy. After they wasted their first rounder on a poor mans TY Hilton this year,and then signed Hilton to a long term deal anyway, who knows what they are thinking. They finally fired GM Ryan Grigson, and wisely kept Pagano ,so smarter personnel decisions will start being made right away. Garnett played in virtually the same offense at Stanford , and could be a plug & play day one starter at LG, but he also has the smarts to try a move to center if they want him there.


49.BUFFALO - KARL JOSEPH - ** - SS - W. VIRGINIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TJ WARD - BRONCOS
Bacarri Rambo is a serviceable player at safety but he is a free agent, and Rex Ryan loves big hitters.Joseph is an undersized safety but he hits like a linebacker. If not for a injury suffered during the season I think he would have had a chance to push himself into the late first round at the Senior Bowl, but going here to a coach that would appreciate his physical style could be work out better for him in the long term.


50.ATLANTA - HUNTER HENRY - TE - ARKANSAS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - ZACH ERTZ - EAGLES
With the retirement of Tony Gonzalez and the decline of Roddy White Matt Ryan has lost 2 HOF receiving targets in the last couple of years. He can't always go to Julio or check down to Freeman ,because the passing game has become too predictable to fool defenses . Henry is the best receiving TE in this draft right now, and while he needs to get stronger & polish his technique as a blocker at least he is willing to try to block on tape.  


51.NY JETS - KAMALEI CORREA - OLB/DE - BOSE ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MELVIN INGRAM - CHARGERS
Calvin Pace is past his prime and will be 36 next year. Plus former first round bust Quinton Coples was cut late in the season. right now 2015 3rd rounder Lorenzo Mauldin is their only threat as 3-4 rush backer. I thought Correa should have stayed for his senior year after his numbers were down compared to 2014, because he had a good chance to be a top 20 pick next year. Either way his burst off the snap and motor will get him on the field early. Once he is coached up he could be a force on the outside long term.


52.HOUSTON - ALEX COLLINS - RB - ARKANSAS
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - EDGERRIN JAMES - retired
I was sad when Jonathan Williams got hurt and missed the season, but Collins really made the most of his opportunity to be the lead dog when I watched his tape. Alex had over a 1,000 yards 3 years in a row, but was not overused, and was at his best this year when he got the most carries. He outplayed Leonard Fournette in their match-up this season, has really quick nimble feet, can string multiple moves together seamlessly, and take it the house. Had a stutter step, jump cut , and spin move in one single play for a long TD. Good balance ,good long speed , great burst, can make someone miss then explode through the hole or into open space. Runs low and hard, will finish his runs driving his legs , churning out extra yards ,and almost always falls forward. While he was  rarely targeted as a receiver despite regularly being open,  he can make things happen in the open.He's going to need time to learn how to pass protect ,but I think he is the second best RB in this draft as a pure runner. Arian Foster got knocked out for the year again, will be 30 next season, the Texans can save 6.5 million of their cap by cutting him this off season, and will have missed 23 of the last 48 regular season games. They can get a younger, faster, more durable, and cheaper RB here with a much better big play capability. 


53.WASHINGTON - SUA CRAVENS - LB/SS - USC
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DANNY TREVATHAN - BRONCOS
6th round rookie Kyshoen Jarrett was the skins best safety this year, and he is best suited to play FS. Dashon Goldosn has been a disappointment since they traded for him, and they can save 7.5 million by cutting him without a dead money hit. Washington also lacks a LB who is good in coverage. Cravens can play SS and play LB for them, but I think his best fit is at LB.


54.MINNESOTA - STERLING SHEPPARD - WR - OKLAHOMA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DOUG BALDWIN - SEAHAWKS
The Vikes don't have one above average route runner at WR, and Sheppard is the best route runner in this draft. God knows that Bridgewater needs a reliable receiver , and Shep would excel in the slot to give him a quick outlet if his line keeps breaking down again. He also has great hands and is a very competitive blocker.


55.CINCINNATI - KENDALL FULLER - ** - CB - VIRGINIA TECH
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - CEDRICK GRIFFIN - FA
Veteran free agents Leon Hall and Pacman Jones are both in their 30's , and Dre Kirkpatrick has never lived up to his draft status. Fuller is a smart versatile player ,and his ability to play both inside & outside is very valuable. Fuller will join his brothers as NFL cornerbacks, and has the talent to be the best of the bunch. Although he is coming off an injury I still see his size, previous tape, and polish getting him drafted in the first 2 rounds.


56.SEATTLE - ADOLPHUS WASHINGTON - # - DT - OHIO ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - GERALD McCOY - BUCCANEERS
Both Brandon Mebane and Ahtyba Rubin are free agents after the season, and the cap strapped Seahawk's need to save money somewhere.  I wasn't overly impressed with Washington's season compared to last years, but the way he took to Rod Marinelli's coaching at the Senior Bowl shows what kind of player he can be when he is used right & coached up. The Seahawk's try to primarily get a pass rush with just their front 4, and Washington's pass rush ability would probably give him the edge here over some other worthy interior D-Lineman. 


57.GREEN BAY - KYLER FACKRELL - OLB - UTAH ST.
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AARON LYNCH - 49ers
Clay Matthews is the kind of player that would be effective in many different roles. While the packers certainly miss him as an edge rusher they kept saying that they wanted to keep him inside as the QB of their defense .  They finally changed course now and say they want to move him back to the edge, but there is no clear cut ILB available in this scenario that is worth this pick. They should address that position in free agency or later in the draft .With Julius Peppers on the decline, turning 36 next season, and the chance to save over 7 million by cutting him they need an edge rusher. Add in that their other 2 primary rush backers(Nick Perry and Mike Neal ) are also free agents means addressing this need early in the draft is still a strong possibility, even if Clay is moved back outside. Fackrell has a great frame that could easily add 10 pounds of muscle without losing quickness or agility. He's a versatile jack of all trades that spends more time dropping into coverage than I expected before I broke down his tape, especially when you consider that he a pretty good pass rusher. He could currently be a 3-4 rush backer or 4-3 SAM on day one. With a little more more bulk I could even see him as a 4-3 weak side end, but he needs to play with more violence.  For all of these reasons I could see him being the pick, but especially because a Swiss army knife player like Fackrell can give a coordinator the ability to throw a lot of different looks at an offense.





58.PITTSBURGH - JEREMY CASH - ** - SS/LB - DUKE
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - PATRICK CHUNG - PATRIOTS
Strong safety Will Allen is a 34 year old free agent and the Steelers are in the midst of a youth movement on defense. Cash is a beast against the run , and that's what you need first and foremost in the AFC North. Jeremy is a great tackler and strong blitzer who fiercely attacks anyone in his way. He was used like a LB at Duke the way the Cards use Deion Buchanon ,and New England uses Patrick Chung. He is also better in zone coverage than I thought he would be, and with Mike Tomlin taking more of the reigns of the defense the Steelers run a lot more cover 2 than they did under Dick LeBeau. 20 years ago he would have been a top 10 pick, but in today's pass happy NFL he can still be a valuable player if used right. 


59.KANSAS CITY -  ARTIE BURNS - CB - MIAMI
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - DARIUS SLAY - LIONS
Sean Smith is a free agent this off season, and the Chiefs have a lot of key free agents. KC likes big corners , Smith did play well last year, but he will also be 29 next season and wanting a deal I'm not sure they Can afford.  Burns is a big , physical, corner that unexpectedly entered the draft early. He gets by more on his physical gifts than polished technique right now, but his ability to press alone will get him on the field early in sub packages, but once Artie tightens up his technique & tackling ability he should be a full time starter.


60.NEW ENGLAND - WILL FULLER - WR - N. DAME
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - JOEY GALLOWAY - retired
The Patriots don't have a deep threat wide receiver who can stretch the field. Fuller is consistently open on tape all over the field, and the only reasons he doesn't go in the first round is the that he had too many drops & has a lean build. He is well worth this pick, and can back defenses off to help the Patriots run & short passing games. With a little more consistently catching the ball he will be an elite play maker for a long time. 


61.ARIZONA - JORDAN JENKINS - OLB/DE - GEORGIA
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - AHMAD BROOKS - 49ers
Leonard Floyd is a better athlete and will likely be drafted higher, but Jenkins was the better all around edge player in college, especially at the point of attack . Jenkins game is about power and he is stronger than most 260 pound edge defenders, and can hold up at 4-3 DE when they are in nickle. In a division with run heavy teams like Seattle, the 49ers, and the Rams that is vital. He gets steady pressure as pass rusher ,but needs to become more flexible and varied as pass rusher right now.


62.CAROLINA - XAVIEN HOWARD - CB - BAYLOR
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - TRUMAINE JOHNSON - RAMS
35 year old Charles Tillman got knocked out for the year in the final game of the regular season so they need a corner. Howard is a big , physical, corner that id used to taking on #1 WR's . He gets by more on his physicality than polished technique right now, but his ability to press alone will get him on the field early in sub packages, he is a ball hawk, and he is already strong in run support. .


63.DENVER - DEION JONES - OLB - LSU
NFL PLAYER COMPARISON - MICHAEL BOLEY - retired
The Broncos already resigned Derek Wolfe, but Von Miller, Malik Jackson , and Danny Trevathan is also a free agent this off season. As valuable a player as Trevathan is, especially in coverage, he is easier to replace than the other 2. Despite being undersized Jones is fearless, and was all over the field on tape at LSU. He also was the most impressive weak side LB at the Senior Bowl, and while he needs to add some more muscle to stay inside long term in a NFL 3-4, he can at least be their nickle linebacker as a rookie. .

 

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