Tuesday, February 19, 2013

2013 NFL MOCK DRAFT 5.0 -pre combine

All the post season ALL-STAR games have been played ,or more importantly the practices are done. Everybody should now be geared up for the combine.Some senior players who either declined to play in the senior bowl , or who couldn't make it due to injury will have dropped. Some other guys who have played in either the senior bowl,east/west shrine , or NFLPA all star games will have seen their stock adjust.Through no fault of their own some juniors who are ineligible for those games will drop a little. We have mostly caught up on watching more tape on some guys we didn't expect to be in the draft. Some guys will already have risen/dropped if we have gotten to more of their tape because of it. Others drop only because some seniors have done some good things in the all-star games. Thanks to a lot of possible high 1rst round picks surprisingly staying in school this draft is the weakest in years at the top ,but ended up strong in players we grade as 1rst round picks as a whole and depth throughout. There is some strong depth throughout it thanks to a record number of underclassmen . With the new CBA in place expect to see draft picks being more valuable and teams willing to take more risk high up considering the financial risk isn't anywhere near as big as it used to be. Next to each player is the NFL player we feel they will most resemble in their prime if they are a hit. The comp is for on the field play only ,and the higher they are ranked the more likely we think they will reach that comparison. All the films been watched. Players medical testing and how people with character issues come off to teams are more important than anything that happens at the underwear olympics . Also keeep an eye on who is and isn't in shape. Barring an injury in training a guy who shows up out of shape sets a bad precedent for his work ethic. Guys who were always lazy showing up in tip top shape are also a concern. Like players who underperfomed throughout their careers suddenly reaching their potential in a contract year I just don't trust those guys. These type of things are likely to affect a players draft stock with us more than anything else now.

* Is for a player with possible injury issues.
#Is for a player with possible character or off the field issues

1.KC-GENO SMITH-QB-W.VA-NFL COMP-WARREN MOON-HOF RET.-Ignore the RG3 comparisons. He's not that type of an athlete. He is a good athlete for a QB though, but not the elite runner that Griffin is. He's mobile but always is looking to throw first. Not an elite franchise QB prospect like Luck or RG3 ,but the best in this class. If your KC or AZ he's a lot better than what you have. Considering the strength of KC's O-line , and with Smith's current lack of pocket awareness he needs a good one,he could have a great rookie year if he is lucky enough to end up there. Strong arm ,good accuracy when he's set, and clean off the field. Needs work on mechanics ,handling the blitz,and adjustments right now. Also needs to add weight and learn a pro system.As long as he is at least 6"2" and 220 lbs when he's measured this makes sense, and we think he's taller now, and will add the weight by then. The hiring of QB guru Andy Reid makes it even more likely.If no QB separates himself and a team badly wants Joeckel. then a trade back is in play. They won't get a RG3 type haul for a OT though.If they don't pony up and pay Branden Albert to return at LT then Joeckel or Star probably go here.

2.JAX-STAR LOTULELEI-DT-UTAH-NFL COMP-HALOTI NGATA-BALT-Thier run defense up the middle is bad right now and this guy clogs the middle by just breathing . They have Mincey and Babin on the outside now, and I doubt they have given up on Andre Branch(last years second round pick) already,so that should improve their outside pass rush . Star can also push the pocket and improve the overall rush as well.

3.OAK-BJOERN WERNER-DE-FLA ST.-NFL COMP-DERRICK MORGAN-TENN-Pass rush is a weakness especially on the outside where they have some DT size guys coming off the edge.He has a high floor and the new raider regime needs that.More than any other team in this draft they are likely to move back if the chance to acquire more picks and fill more needs comes up.

4.PHIL-LUKE JOECKEL-OT-TEX A&M-NFL COMP-JOE THOMAS-CLEV-A massive amount of O-line injuries wrecked their season last year. Peters will be back and they can move Hereman back inside if they can get someone else on the outside.They need a CB too, so Milliner is a possibility. DRC is a free agent and Nnamdi is way overpaid for what he has done there.

5.DET-DeMARCUS MILLINER-CB-ALA-CHARLES TILLMAN-CHI-They have had crappy CB play for years and only improved one side last year with Chris Houston,who is now a free agent . If the coach and GM want to keep their jobs they should get CB help right now.

6.CLEV-*JARVIS JONES-OLB/DE-GA-NFL COMP-CLAY MATHEWS-GB- Jaball Sheard regressed as a pass rusher last year and Juqua Parker is near the End. While I feel Jones is a better fit as a 3-4 OLB the browns may put him in a Von Miller type role although he hasn't shown the same discipline or work ethic as Miller.He is clearly the draft best outside pass rusher right now. His medical check for spinal stenosis is crucial . He could go as high as # 2 if he isn't getting worse.

7.AZ-ERIC FISHER-OT-C.MICH-NFL COMP-JOE STALEY-SF-With an O-line that was bad in a biblical way last season and no QB worth the pick, the top rated OT available when they pick should be a lock. He will not only be their best lineman when he shows up ,but would also allow the returning from injury Levi Brown to move inside where he belongs.That improves 2 positions. If a QB seperates himself thats a possibilty, but I pity that poor bastard unless the O-line is fixed. On the bright side Bobbie Massie and Nate Potter got valuable experience last year and the second half of the season Massie was a top tier RT.

8.BUFF-DION JORDAN-DE/OLB-ORE-NFL COMP-JEVON JEARSE-RET-Mark Anderson was hurt a lot this season. Add a young edge rusher to a healthy Williams bros & Dareus and they might have the leagues best front four ,with a perfect blend of youth and veterans up front.

9.JETS-KENNY VACCARO-S-TEX-NFL COMP-KERRY RHODES-AZ-Laron Landry is a free agent and injury prone. This guy can play either safety spot and inject some youth into their secondary.The jets play so much man that safety play is essential and Vaccaro covers the slot better than most corners.

10-TENN-CHANCE WARMACK-G-ALA-NFL COMP-JAHRI EVANS-NO-None of the 3 guards who started for them played well last year. With this draft having so few players who are elite at their position, a guard in the top 10 won't shock us at all. Trading down or going after a CB or edge rusher are also viable options but the best player in the draft at # 10 is a bsrgain, even f he's a guard.

11.SD-LANE JOHNSON-OT-OKLA-NFL COMP-NATE SOLDER-COL-Another BAD O-line . 2 years ago the left side of their line was elite with Dielman and McNeil. 2 injury retirements later and Phillip Rivers is a wreck. This guy is an athlete. He started juco ball as a QB but kept growing. Then he was a TE and DE. Finally settled in as a RT as junior at OKLA, and LT as senior. Might be a small reach ,but this isn't a strong draft, he has more upside than Joeckel & Fisher, and they are desperate on the left side. Hopefully their new front office go after will go after any and all free agents.

12.MIAMI-.*KEENAN ALLEN-WR-CAL-NFL COMP-JORDY NELSON-GB-They need a number one WR. This guy looked great even with bad QB play and constant double teams. It also allows Hartline to be a possesion receiver and makes Tannehill's life easier.

13.TB-XAVIER RHODES-CB-FLA ST.-NFL COMP-NnAMDI ASOMUGHA-PHIL-Definitely a bit high right now but they traded their best CB last year and they need another big corner now. Rather than reach the might go DT or trade back.

14.CAR-SHARIFF FLOYD-DT/DE-FLA-NFL COMP-MUHAMMAD WILKERSON-JETS-Carolina not only has bad run defense , but also needs leadership and toughness up the gut. Floyd is flying up draft boards and will improve the run & pass defense, in addition to providing flexibility all along the D-line.

15.NO-SHELDON RICHARDSON-DT-MOU-NFL COMP-CULLEN JENKINS-PHIL-The saints interior pass rush needs some work and heretofore underperforming Sedrick Ellis is a FA to boot. This is the drafts best proven interior pass rusher and he is from a local school .With the move to a 3-4 he could be a long term bookend to go with Cam Jordan. A NT could also be in the mix.

16.STL-CORDARELLE PATTERSON-WR-TENN-DEZ BRYANT-DALL-The rams have a lot of young WR talent. and claiming Titus Young and his attitude didn't help much, as they just cut him. However Amendola is the only one with any polish. He's also a FA, and he is often injured. Patterson is polished , fearless, can stretch the field, and will give Bradford a reliable target.

17.PITT-DAMONTRE MOORE-DE/OLB-TEX A&M-NFL COMP-JOHN ABRAHAM-ATL- James Harrison is 34 , has a big salary, and has been injured a lot recently. Lamar Woodley wasn't too hot last year either. So we are giving them a edge rusher with a lot of potential. Also Larry Foote was a liabilty last season so a ILB is a possibilty. Ogletree or Te'o have the talent to warrant this pick and would give them another 3 down LB to go with Timmons, and add some youth and speed to an aging defense. Both have off the field problems though.Ogletree has been suspended and just had a DUI. Manti Te'o is out because he needs a veteran locker room to build up and support him after the hole hoax thing, and there has been recent talk of Pittsburgs once heralded locker room fracturing last season.

18.-JOHNATHAN COOPER-G/C-N.CAR-NFL COMP-ANDY LEVITRE-BUFF-The right side of the Dallas O-line needs an upgrade. There are no tackles worth this pick left in this scenario,so how about a plug an play guard? Cooper is more of a LG, but Nate Livings is a better fit on that side anyway.Coop can also play center in a pinch. I am sure Dallas fans are sick of seeing Romo run for his life, this guy could help immediately. It's safe to say Lane Johnson would be in play if he fell here.

19.NYG-NYG-BARKEVIOUS MINGO-DE/OLB-LSU-NFL COMP-JASON TAYLOR-(ret)-GM Jerry Reese is known for taking the best player available, or guys with big upside , and in this case it fits a need. The Osi and Tuck era has likely come to an end. JPP can handle one side, but unless they move Kiwanuka down to the line they are short a starting DE. Pass rush was the main reason they won 2 superbowls in 4 years and I am sure they know it.

20.CHI-#ALEC OGLETREE-LB-GA-NFL COMP-LAWRENCE TIMMONS-PITTS-Urlacher and Briggs are long in the tooth. With there being no O-lineman worth this pick right now, they take a great player at a position of need. Unless some other young O-lineman shows well in the pre-draft process expect him to be considered.If not for off the field problems, including a DUI this week, Ogletree would be a slam dunk top 10 pick.

21.CINC-CINC-TAVON AUSTIN-WR-W.VA-NFL COMP-PERCY HARVIN-MINN-This mans lightning in a bottle on the field. Running, catching, and returning are all in the toolbox. Explosive and would take some pressure of Dalton to Green.If a RB blows up the pre-draft process that is also a possibility.

22.RAMS-DJ FLUKER-OT-ALA-NFL COMP-ANDRE WHITWORTH-CINC- We are betting Fluker shows up healthy and slimmed down at the combine. He has elite measurements and if he can improve his quickness a little he can at least cover right tackle this year and allow them to franchise Roger Saffold and see if he earns a bigger deal , or negotiates in a manner that reflects what he has done so far. They could easily address this in free agency as well.

23.MINN- QUINTON PATTON-LA.TECH-NFL COMP-RODDY WHITE-ATL - They need anyone who can take attention away from Adrian. Percy Harvin is probably going to to be traded unless he has an attitude adjustment, and with his injury and attitude history they should get what they can now anyway. This guy can run block too and you need that on this team.

24.INDY-DESMOND TRUFANT-CB-NFL COMP-JASON McCOURTY-TENN-Probably the 3rd best CB after the senior bowl,and they need CB help badly. He was a standout at the senior bowl. If he runs well it's even more likely and need will likely push him up draft boards either way . If a good O-lineman rises ,or one falls who shouldn't that should come first ,but we see them adressing that in free agency. Luck got hit constantly all season.They are a candidiate to trade up for a lineman just in case they don't address it in free agency.

25.SEA-EZEKIAL ANSAH-DE-BYU-NFL COMP-JASON PIERRE-PAUL-NYG-Chris Clemmons is not only 11 years in, but he just hurt his knee . Bruce Irvin is more of an undersized pass rushing specialist, so they need an everydown guy on the outside. Ansah is raw but he is the most gifted D-lineman in the draft. With the frame to play multiple positions.

26.GB-ZACH ERTZ-TE-STAN-NFL COMP- KYLE RUDOLPH-MINN- The ubertalented but usually dissapointing Jermichael Finley will probably be gone this year in free agency. Ertz is consistent as a receiver ,and despite not being a great blocker right now, the effort is there. He is already a much better blocker than Finley will ever be .They need some O-line help, but I don't have any graded high enough yet in this scenario. Both starting OT's will return from injury as well ,so that might fix the problem.

27. HOU-JHONATHON HANKINS-DT-OH ST.-KEVIN WILLIAMS-MINN-Nose tackle is their largest weakness. This guy is big, strong, and fits the bill. He has the talent to go a lot higher but his inconsistent effort makes this a legit possibility. WIth more
foort he could be a 3 down NT.

28.DEN-JOHNTHAN BANKS-CB-MISS ST-NFL COMP-RICHARD SHERMAN-SEA -Champ Bailey is still a good player despite his last game, but he will also be 35 next season. This big corner is likely to test well and who better to learn from than the champ.

29.NE-JUSTIN HUNTER-WR-TENN-NFL COMP-SIDNEY RICE-SEA-Its probably more likely they trade this pick to someone wanting to grab Wilson,Barkley or Glennon late in the first, but they need a young #1 WR who can play outside. They may not pay Welker, but at least they have Eidelman in the slot as a possible replacement. Lloyd is older and not very physical. This guy does everything well and he can stretch the field.Before injuries happned thIS guy was considered a top 10 pick.

30.ATL-DATONE JONES T-DE/DT-UCLA-NFL COMP-JUSTIN TUCK-John Abraham is 34 on the weak side and Kroy Bierman is nothing special on the strongside as far as Atlantas DE's . Jones also has the versatilty to slide inside to tackle on obvious passing downs. tonyGonzalez is saying he is probably done and if retires,Tyler Eifert can slide right in and give similiar production right away ,If he comes back the best available edge rusher is a good fit.

31.SF-SYLVESTER WILLIAMS-DT-NC-NFL COMP-MARCELL DAREUS-BUF-Not a lot of needs with the 49ers, but this fills one. Thier elite D-line is aging and Issac Sopoaga hit the wall last season, so Jessie Williams might also be a possibility. With the age of Smith and Mcdonald ,and Smith's tricep injury , this is more likely as he can play more spots on the D-line.

32.BALT-MANTI TEO-ILB-N.DAME-NFL COMP-STEPHEN TULLOCH-DET- This is the best place for Manti . He needs a locker room that will build him up, support him, and have his back against all comers. It loooked like his confidence was shot in the National championship game, and since we now know he found out the truth that would explain his bad play. Before that he was worth a top 15 pick off his play on the field this season.

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